Hooligans Sportsbook

Question For Line Shopper's

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Enigma
What minimum wage job? I can only assume it's yours, because you know nothing about me. So sure, go ahead and quit your minimum wage job any day now. I'm not sure where your income will be coming from, though, because you certainly have exposed yourself in the sports gambling arena.
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I will call all the books that sent me checks this year and ask them to void all the checks they sent me because I didn't bet the best line. I'm on the phone as we speak.
 
I have to support Pavy here. I understand what the math says but if you aren’t a math guy and are strictly a capper in the traditional sense the math becomes a serious negative from a psychological standpoint.

The math tells you that there is such and such a chance you are gonna lose. Sure it also tells you there is such and such a chance you will win and such and such a chance the game will end in a tie but a capper doesn’t want to think about losing.

Even if he understands the odds which many don’t (shocker, I’m one of them) he still wants, scratch that, he needs to believe he’s got a winner. Negativity in a cappers mind is a very bad thing. Everything has to be positive, every outcome has to have an optimistic view. Without that, when the possibility of a loss enters the picture he starts pressing and the process gets all cloudy.

A math guy sees a line at -1.5 and he calculates the percentages of times over a given number of occurrences he will win or lose and neither number will be 100% obviously. A capper looks at that same line and he is comfortable assuming as long as he is in the right side he has a 100% chance of winning.

Sure it is selective perception but that is essential to the peace of mind of the capper.

Math guys deal in probabilities and cappers deal in possibilities. In the end it still comes down to a matter of choice and if one or the other or a combination of both works then whose to say the other is wrong?

Can’t…….we all……………just get……………..along?
 
I don't understand what distinction you're making between math guys and "cappers".

Any handicapper needs to have some understanding of probability. All that a good handicapper tries to do is assign more accurate probabilities than the book/public etc.

He has to do this in order to win. Whether he looks at it that way or not doesn't matter.
 
Wally,

How many professional handicappers do you know personally? It simply amazes me that when several professionals in the industry tell people what it takes to make money betting sports, there are so many people who violently protest. What other field is like that? I mean if a mechanic showed you how to rebuild a transmission, would sit and argue and tell him your way is better even though you've destroyed 3 transmissions trying and never successfully rebuilt one yourself. People's logic is truly baffling. It's beyond retarded.
 
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MonkeyFocker, my attempt here was not to say one is better than the other. I attempt was to explain in the most basic of terms what Pavy was saying about the price not playing a factor in his decision making. I attempted to highlight the differences the math the preverbal glass 1/2 empty and capping the preverbal glass 1/2 full.

I don't have a dog in the hunt because I am not now nor will I ever be a professional gambler regardless of how much I kid about it. I am fascinated by the process but I am no where near focused, dedicated or let's be honest, bright enough to fully encompass all that you guys do. I can figure out the volume of a cylinder, the flow rate of a 6" pipe. how many lbs of water in a specific tank and if the cashier gave me back the correct but after that my interest in math then becomes an effort.

Personally for the guys that are really good at this, I doubt if one is really better than another. I mean if it works, if you are making a living doing it, if you have a proven process then what does it matter if someone else thinks it's misguided or flawed?

Now while some people could never or would never fully grasp the math behind the process there are still others that might still learn something or find a portion of something that they can adapt to or incorporate into what they do and vice versa.

Pavy said the line, the price the math basically doesn't play a role in his process because he has knowledge of the teams, the situations, the players so regardless if he is getting the best price or not if his team wins he wins. That's practical to him but it's illogical to the math guys because they are concerned that if their team doesn't win and they didn't get the right best price it hurts them longer term on the bottom line. Neither is wrong if it works for them.

I know this is a very simplistc overview but I am what I am. When I was coaching I would always encourage the kids to be smarter than me but I couldn't teach them to be smarter than me.
 
wal66
MonkeyFocker, my attempt here was not to say one is better than the other. I attempt was to explain in the most basic of terms what Pavy was saying about the price not playing a factor in his decision making. I attempted to highlight the differences the math the preverbal glass 1/2 empty and capping the preverbal glass 1/2 full.

I don't have a dog in the hunt because I am not now nor will I ever be a professional gambler regardless of how much I kid about it. I am fascinated by the process but I am no where near focused, dedicated or let's be honest, bright enough to fully encompass all that you guys do. I can figure out the volume of a cylinder, the flow rate of a 6" pipe. how many lbs of water in a specific tank and if the cashier gave me back the correct but after that my interest in math then becomes an effort.

Personally for the guys that are really good at this, I doubt if one is really better than another. I mean if it works, if you are making a living doing it, if you have a proven process then what does it matter if someone else thinks it's misguided or flawed?

Now while some people could never or would never fully grasp the math behind the process there are still others that might still learn something or find a portion of something that they can adapt to or incorporate into what they do and vice versa.

Pavy said the line, the price the math basically doesn't play a role in his process because he has knowledge of the teams, the situations, the players so regardless if he is getting the best price or not if his team wins he wins. That's practical to him but it's illogical to the math guys because they are concerned that if their team doesn't win and they didn't get the right best price it hurts them longer term on the bottom line. Neither is wrong if it works for them.

I know this is a very simplistc overview but I am what I am. When I was coaching I would always encourage the kids to be smarter than me but I couldn't teach them to be smarter than me.
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Wal I am pretty sure the math has more relevance in sports with spreads like football and basketball where knowing what a half point can do to a spread and price is critical. When you are betting football or basketball is not as simple as picking the team to win the game. You have to also beat the spread or if you choose the dog cover the spread.

But what I said about soccer is true. If you feel very confident about the team you are betting for to win the game based on your knowledge of how the game is played and the situations teams are facing (must win or not) then don't let the price play mind games with you. I won several bets last summer at the WC even though I got a bad price. I bet Argentina and Netherlands the night before in their group games because I wanted to sleep in the morning and when I woke up the price was better than what I got the night before. Guess what? Argentina and Netheralands won their games and even covered the Asian handicap with ease. If I didn't place my bet the night before I would have second thoughts in the morning betting them seeing that the line has moved so bad against me.
 
wal66
The math tells you that there is such and such a chance you are gonna lose. Sure it also tells you there is such and such a chance you will win and such and such a chance the game will end in a tie but a capper doesnt want to think about losing.
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reno cool
learn about volatility. Stop banging head. Losing bet does not necessarily= mistake
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wal66
Even if he understands the odds which many dont (shocker, Im one of them) he still wants, scratch that, he needs to believe hes got a winner. Negativity in a cappers mind is a very bad thing. Everything has to be positive, every outcome has to have an optimistic view. Without that, when the possibility of a loss enters the picture he starts pressing and the process gets all cloudy.
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PapaGeorge
But the only way to be 100% successful in my kind of work, is confidence and I am full of it.
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!!!!!!11
 
It is the age-old story. There is a lot of bad thinking being spelled out in this thread as there has been on forums going back to when I first became aware of them.

As a person who likes to help people, it rubs me the wrong way but in the final analysis, bad thinking is the lifeblood of the industry. Selfishly, it is better that there be more of it, not less.
 
Mudcat
It is the age-old story. There is a lot of bad thinking being spelled out in this thread as there has been on forums going back to when I first became aware of them.

As a person who likes to help people, it rubs me the wrong way but in the final analysis, bad thinking is the lifeblood of the industry. Selfishly, it is better that there be more of it, not less.
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I'll help you out here Muddy, I have a Master's Degree in Dumbass and a minor in DUH! :dork:
 
Since this thread began I have had my Ask Jeeve’s priviledges restricted.
It’s difficult to ask a question when you can’t figure out how to ask it. Jeeve’s now just yell’s at me that what I am asking is , NOT A FCK’N QUESTION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:mudcat:
 
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