Question For Line Shopper's

[Saulty]

Unless pavy hits 100% of his bets he is wrong

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-ha...ropa-league-qualifiers-soccer-thu-8-26-a.html

Only 86%. Can't hit 100% yet.

 

[Patty]

A+ thread good work wallychimp

 

[wal66]

A+ thread good work wallychimp

I don't know about A+ but each time I re-read something contained in this thread I know more but understand less.

 

[wal66]

Ok, so its time to come clean and stop hiding behind a bunch of jokes and shielding myself with flawed philosophy.

I admit I struggle with the math involved at times. The majority of the problem is, understanding how to set up the math to reveal the answer I am looking for. Most of that problem is, not understanding how to ask the question.

EXAMPLE:

Michigan St @ Northwestern. The line opened at 7 and quickly started going down. Today it sits at 4.5 to 5 at most every book yet the various places available to check for percentages reveals that better than 70% in favor of Michigan St has been maintain throughout the fall.

If I follow correctly a book attempts to keep itself relatively neutral on the money regardless of the percentages of wagers on any given side.
Now without seeing the books we never know where the book meets that neutrality, right? So at what point do we know we have lost any or all value on a line that hasnt crossed a key number?

Capping the games tells me this line should have opened somewhere right around 13, Michigan St has played a much tougher schedule albeit the bulk of it at home, they hold the advantage across the board on all major statistical categories as well. True they have played all but one game this year in the state of Michigan and this will be their first real road test. Also true and very key is the fact that they play Iowa next week so there is a potential look ahead spot here. It is also relevant that Northwestern is coming off a bye week.

Capping tells me Michigan St at this line is the better option, experience tells me this line is fishy based on stats so it opened where it did for the intangibles.

How do I ask the math to help me out here?


If posible I have already admitted that I'm a simpleton so if you could dumb it down I would appreciate it.

 

[Fu Manchu]

too long. not reading.

 

[rito]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapp...troduction-expectations-theoretical-hold.html

Read those. Then read them again.

Then learn how to use this:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting+tools/half+point+calculator.aspx

Then read Sharp Sports betting, then read justins stupid book. Then forget everything pavy has ever told you about sports betting.

 

[Matty]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapp...troduction-expectations-theoretical-hold.html

Read those. Then read them again.

Then learn how to use this:

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting+tools/half+point+calculator.aspx

Then read Sharp Sports betting, then read justins stupid book. Then forget everything pavy has ever told you about sports betting.

lolz. Post Of The Forumville Era.

 

[Fu Manchu]

 

[roguejuror]

lol

 

[Saulty]

Wal you can spend your whole life reading the Think Tank or the best books in the world on math or you can just pick winners and don't worry about the math. Do the right thing.

 

[Fu Manchu]

Wal you can spend your whole life reading the Think Tank or the best books in world on math or you can just pick winners and don't worry about the math. Do the right thing.

avy::muddy:

 

[kato]

do both wal

 

[Polaroid]

Michigan St @ Northwestern. The line opened at 7 and quickly started going down. Today it sits at 4.5 to 5 at most every book yet the various places available to check for percentages reveals that better than 70% in favor of Michigan St has been maintain throughout the fall.

<snip>

Capping the games tells me this line should have opened somewhere right around 13

Although it's only one game and you can't have a smaller sample size than 1, if you handicap a line at 13 which opens at 7 and moved to 4.5 (on, I presume, no injury or other information) then the biggest red flag would appear to be your model that spat out +/- 13 as the true line in the first place.

Wally, I would advise you to read through this thread again. And maybe one more time for good luck. You've been given gambling pointers and resources from the Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay types at GameLive but it would appear that you're only taking on the advice.from Oliver Perez.

 

[wal66]

P-Roid, the problem is, if I don't know what my question is I don't know how to find my answer. Quite the conundrum.

 

[rito]

How many of the steps outlined in my post have you done?

 

[Fu Manchu]

o/u 0.5

 

[reno cool]

Although it's only one game and you can't have a smaller sample size than 1, if you handicap a line at 13 which opens at 7 and moved to 4.5 (on, I presume, no injury or other information) then the biggest red flag would appear to be your model that spat out +/- 13 as the true line in the first place.

Wally, I would advise you to read through this thread again. And maybe one more time for good luck. You've been given gambling pointers and resources from the Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay types at GameLive but it would appear that you're only taking on the advice.from Oliver Perez.

does kind of sound like Crazy Lou's tennis system.

Wally, you can be a math professor, doesn't mean you'll find an edge. Finding an edge in gambling can be a difficult thing. But understanding the idea of expected value along with a few other concepts would help greatly in attaining and recognizing an edge. No matter what handicapping strategy you wanna use.

 

[MrX]

Wal, I'm planning on starting a wally education thread to address this whole thing. It'll probably be long-winded, you'll like that. Expect it later tonight or tomorrow.