Hooligans Sportsbook

Question For Line Shopper's

  • Start date •
  • Replies
    263 Replies •
  • Views 19,089 Views
Follow
wal66
Even if it is factored into the line, I still have a mathematical edge to hit the over on the visiting team as opposed to the over on the home team.
Click to expand...

Say you've got a fair coin and I'm offering you +100 on heads. You've got no mathematical edge on winning the bet since the actual probability of winning is 50% and the implied probability of the moneyline is 50%. Now say you've got a biased coin which comes up heads with a 60% probability and I'm offering you -150 on heads. You have a better chance of winning the bet since the odds on winning (60%) are greater than the odds of losing (40%) but you've got no mathematical edge on your bet since the actual probability of winning is 60% and the implied probability of the moneyline is 60%.
 
Wal you have to put yourself into the coach's shoes. Imagine you have a soccer game to coach tonight. You know you have to play team A. You know you play at home. You know you have a game plan with certain players available at your disposal on how to beat team A. You have formed the line up and the formation based on your team's strength and opponent's weakness.

Now it's time for you pre-game speach. Will you try this one if you are 100% percent sure of your game plan and score outcome: "You know guys. I have just looked at vegasodds.com. We are favored to win this game at -150 but I think we should be at -160 based on our team's strength. I think the books are giving us a good line here. Let's go and win this game because we have a good line."
 
MonkeyF0cker
Pavy,

I'll gladly take any action on any game at 20 cents worse than Pinny's close. Let me know if you're interested.
Click to expand...

I don't look at pinny's close lines when I bet MF. I just bet what team I have determined has the greatest chance of winning the game. This is what I do for soccer. I look at the starting lineup before the game starts, motivation of team to win. I don't care if the public is hammering the same team I want to bet on or if they are hammening the other team. I used this strategy for soccer. If you remember at the World Cup I placed 2 futures. One for Spain to win and one for Netherlands. I looked at the groups, potential knock out games and bet only these two teams out of 32. Never once looked at the closing line odds.
 
Pavy
I don't look at pinny's close lines when I bet MF. I just bet what team I have determined has the greatest chance of winning the game. This is what I do for soccer. I look at the starting lineup before the game starts, motivation of team to win. I don't care if the public is hammering the same team I want to bet on or if they are hammening the other team. I used this strategy for soccer. If you remember at the World Cup I placed 2 futures. One for Spain to win and one for Netherlands. I looked at the groups, potential knock out games and bet only these two teams out of 32. Never once looked at the closing line odds.
Click to expand...

That's pretty impressive if true. And maybe you have an immense talent that crushes any standard vig. That would be rare, but possible I presume. Yet, you would still make more if you get 7-1 on Spain vs 6-1.
 
Pavy
You are confusing Madden NFL on playstation with real football. If he is such a good line shopper he should quit his minimum wage job.
Click to expand...

What minimum wage job? I can only assume it's yours, because you know nothing about me. So sure, go ahead and quit your minimum wage job any day now. I'm not sure where your income will be coming from, though, because you certainly have exposed yourself in the sports gambling arena.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.