Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
- Since
- Jan 26, 2010
- Messages
- 50,402
- Score
- 5,852
- Tokens
- 0
FULL GAMESFULL GAMES
0-5 -6.21u
YTD 116-113 +2.98u
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
0-6 -7.82u
YTD 25-17-10 +4.05u
Kelly bankroll (Day 0.5) $250
Kelly bets are at 3% each ($7.50)
Monday May 6
FULL GAMES
DET +102
PIT -162
KCR -140
SDP -106
TBR -165
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
PHI -220
PIT -165
KCR -152
OAK +120
LAD -280
4-1 +1.88u (+$18.80 base, +$14.10 Kelly)
YTD 120-114 +4.86u
FIRST FIVE
4-1 +1.96u (+$19.60 base, +$14.70 Kelly)
YTD 29-18-10 +6.01u
Kelly bankroll after Day 1 - $278.80
New Kelly bet amount - $8.36
Going forward I'll be betting x to win one unit on games where I'm not on the full and first five, and one unit to win x on games where I bet both. I think it makes sense.
roguejuror
rouge
- Since
- Jan 24, 2010
- Messages
- 64,288
- Score
- 5,682
- Tokens
- 36
8-13 last two days
CASPERWAIT$
Drama Moobs Your Mom
- Since
- Aug 3, 2010
- Messages
- 12,827
- Score
- 2,431
- Tokens
- 0
One day down. Two to go
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
- Since
- Jan 26, 2010
- Messages
- 50,402
- Score
- 5,852
- Tokens
- 0
FULL GAMES
YTD 120-114 +4.86u
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
YTD 29-18-10 +6.01u
Kelly bankroll after Day 1 - $278.80
New Kelly bet amount - $8.36
Tuesday May 7
FULL GAMES
ARI -126 ($18.36 to win $14.58)
LAA +115 ($18.36 to win $21.11)
FIRST FIVE
TEX -112 ($20.56 to win $18.36)
ARI -118 ($18.36 to win $15.56)
BAL -200 ($36.72 to win $18.36)
YTD 120-114 +4.86u
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
YTD 29-18-10 +6.01u
Kelly bankroll after Day 1 - $278.80
New Kelly bet amount - $8.36
Tuesday May 7
FULL GAMES
ARI -126 ($18.36 to win $14.58)
LAA +115 ($18.36 to win $21.11)
FIRST FIVE
TEX -112 ($20.56 to win $18.36)
ARI -118 ($18.36 to win $15.56)
BAL -200 ($36.72 to win $18.36)
Last edited:
Vegas Dave
Not a Real GameLiver
- Since
- Jan 28, 2010
- Messages
- 3,526
- Score
- 1,698
- Tokens
- 5
I agree with Rogueys earlier post, that it's an illusion.
I understand wanting to mitigate risk/exposure on each game. But really, the First5 and Game are two independent, theoretically +EV bets.
The fact that they are stacked is just as likely to work in your favor as it is to work against you, and assuming both are actually +EV, it's more likely to work in your favor.
Seems you are unfairly punishing picks you also like the First5 in.
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
- Since
- Jan 26, 2010
- Messages
- 50,402
- Score
- 5,852
- Tokens
- 0
Yeah, fair. I'm a wuss. I keep reminding myself that the main goal right now is to find out whether the method works. For that to happen, I just need to put in bets. Optimizing the dollars would come after.
But still, yeah. Losing this small amount of money would be inconsequential, so I might as well swing for the fences.
Then again, if this truly works, I'll never have to deposit a dollar ever again. I'll just keep rolling over the initial $400 that I deposited.
I dunno. Let's do it this way today and see how that feels once the baseball unfolds.
I very much apppreciate the feedback by the way. This experiment is evolving thanks to y'all.
But still, yeah. Losing this small amount of money would be inconsequential, so I might as well swing for the fences.
Then again, if this truly works, I'll never have to deposit a dollar ever again. I'll just keep rolling over the initial $400 that I deposited.
I dunno. Let's do it this way today and see how that feels once the baseball unfolds.
I very much apppreciate the feedback by the way. This experiment is evolving thanks to y'all.
But FINE, back to the baseball grind.
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
- Since
- Jan 26, 2010
- Messages
- 50,402
- Score
- 5,852
- Tokens
- 0
Adding for Tuesday May 7
FULL GAMES
BOS +160 ($18.36 to win $29.38)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
FIRST FIVE
TBR -230 ($42.23 to win $18.36)
NYY -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
FULL GAMES
BOS +160 ($18.36 to win $29.38)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
FIRST FIVE
TBR -230 ($42.23 to win $18.36)
NYY -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
Last edited:
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
- Since
- Jan 26, 2010
- Messages
- 50,402
- Score
- 5,852
- Tokens
- 0
Adding again
FULL GAMES
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
KCR -125 ($22.95 to win $18.36)
FIRST FIVE
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
STL -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
LAD -280 ($51.41 to win $18.36)
FULL GAMES
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
KCR -125 ($22.95 to win $18.36)
FIRST FIVE
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
STL -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
LAD -280 ($51.41 to win $18.36)
Last edited:
Matty
0-fers Will Happen™
- Since
- Jan 26, 2010
- Messages
- 50,402
- Score
- 5,852
- Tokens
- 0
FULL GAMES
YTD 120-114 +4.86u
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
YTD 29-18-10 +6.01u
Kelly bankroll after Day 1 - $278.80
New Kelly bet amount - $8.36
Tuesday May 7
FULL GAMES
ARI -126 ($18.36 to win $14.58)
LAA +115 ($18.36 to win $21.11)
BOS +160 ($18.36 to win $29.38)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
KCR -125 ($22.95 to win $18.36)
FIRST FIVE
TEX -112 ($20.56 to win $18.36)
ARI -118 ($18.36 to win $15.56)
BAL -200 ($36.72 to win $18.36)
TBR -230 ($42.23 to win $18.36)
NYY -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
STL -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
LAD -280 ($51.41 to win $18.36)
Oh my God.
I think this is too many bets. I almost ran out of cash at TheScore Bet.
YTD 120-114 +4.86u
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
YTD 29-18-10 +6.01u
Kelly bankroll after Day 1 - $278.80
New Kelly bet amount - $8.36
Tuesday May 7
FULL GAMES
ARI -126 ($18.36 to win $14.58)
LAA +115 ($18.36 to win $21.11)
BOS +160 ($18.36 to win $29.38)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
KCR -125 ($22.95 to win $18.36)
FIRST FIVE
TEX -112 ($20.56 to win $18.36)
ARI -118 ($18.36 to win $15.56)
BAL -200 ($36.72 to win $18.36)
TBR -230 ($42.23 to win $18.36)
NYY -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
STL -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
LAD -280 ($51.41 to win $18.36)
Oh my God.
I think this is too many bets. I almost ran out of cash at TheScore Bet.
