Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Matty
I've learned over the years is that your initial bankroll matters very little.
Click to expand...
💯

Matty
don't think of individual bets as being +EV
Click to expand...
💯

Matty
The real +EV bets more than make up for the -EV ones that get dragged along.
Click to expand...
💯
 
It's interesting to me Matty that you have such a deep mathematical understanding of this stuff and yet still get emotionally invested in individual day results.

I mean I get it. You're a human and losing sucks. Obviously 0fers are swift kicks in the balls. Just interesting. Considering how much thought you put onto big-picture EV, you of all people know how insignificant a single game/day/week is.
 
Yes.

Imagine being paid to produce something. Could be anything. Wool mittens. So you knit your mittens one by one and you put them into a neat pile next to you. You're proud to see your pile grow. You're doing good work.

Then Greg from accounting comes by and sets the pile on fire. He goes "don't worry about it Matty, you'll come out ahead at the end of the year. I'll only do this to you 3 or 4 times a year. Don't sweat it. You were working too fast anyway."

Even if Greg is right, you're gonna wish cancer on him and his whole family for the rest of time.

:handshake:
 
Matty
Yes.

Imagine being paid to produce something. Could be anything. Wool mittens. So you knit your mittens one by one and you put them into a neat pile next to you. You're proud to see your pile grow. You're doing good work.

Then Greg from accounting comes by and sets the pile on fire. He goes "don't worry about it Matty, you'll come out ahead at the end of the year. I'll only do this to you 3 or 4 times a year. Don't sweat it. You were working too fast anyway."

Even if Greg is right, you're gonna wish cancer on him and his whole family for the rest of time.

:handshake:
Click to expand...
FUKK GREG !!
 
I also have to note that when I was playing poker semi-professionally, training myself not to care about winning and losing mattered a lot, as mood could have an adverse effect on my decision making, and in turn EV.

In your case, you have a mathematical system with a set of parameters that you stick to, so your emotional investment has no effect one way or the other. And with that in mind, why the fuck not live a little? Better to be a passionate Mattyballs than an emotionless drone fake Gameliver like me!
 
Matty
Sunday May 5


FIRST FIVE INNINGS

WSH -115
MIN -165
MIL -130
OAK -130
CIN -120
SFG -122
Click to expand...
It was the first time I ever tailed Matt's plays.

That's a special kind of MUSH that can't be taught. That's something you're BORN WITH.

All at 2% of BR as well. All because I was bored and didn't see any plays I liked.

:goofy:

Today is a new day
 
FULL GAMES
0-5 -6.21u
YTD 116-113 +2.98u

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
0-6 -7.82u
YTD 25-17-10 +4.05u

Kelly bankroll (Day 0.5) $250
Kelly bets are at 3% each ($7.50)

So going forward, I'm betting the same base $10 unit PLUS a variable full-Kelly bet that I've conservatively set at 3% of bankroll, based on my average volume of 10 bets a day. This will get recomputed every single day. It's going to be fun.

Another change is that I'm no longer betting x to win one unit, but rather risking one unit to win x. This is to mitigate the risk of overbetting when I'm betting both the full game and first 5.

In other words, every one of today's bets is $17.50 to win x.

:letsgorock:

Monday May 6

FULL GAMES
DET +102
PIT -162
KCR -140
SDP -106

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
PHI -220
PIT -165
KCR -152
OAK +120
LAD -280

Still waiting for CHW-TBR starters, otherwise that's it for today.
 
Last edited:
Who knew an MLB picks thread could be a fukking daily dissertation??
 
For those of you who might be tempted to tail today's plays because you think the losing has to be out of the way in the short term - I have experienced consecutive 0-fers. They are a thing. Greg doesn't give a fuck what day it is.
 
So 27% of the Kelly bankroll is currently at play/risk. Might go up to an even 30% depending on the CHW-TBR matchup.

#GAMBOL
 
Looks like CHW-TBR is Soroka-Alexander. I have the full game as a +/-182 matchup and the first five as a +/-153. No bet in either case. :handshake:
 
So I plugged all the bets in the calculator and Kelly wanted me to risk over 33% of the bankroll, assuming a 4% edge. So we're comfortable with 27%, especially since we have two pairs of heavily correlated bets (KCR & PIT). Calm down, Kelly.


full kelly
 
Matty
Looks like CHW-TBR is Soroka-Alexander.
Click to expand...
Or not? I'm now seeing -250/+205 at FanDuel, with no official starters. Weird.

Anyone know?

Edit - that's for tomorrow, never mind. The FanDuel interface is horrible.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.