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Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Matty

0-fers Will Happen™
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***Fair warning to anyone who might be tempted to tail these plays - I've yet to have a profitable MLB season. I used to do ok in hockey, foots and hoops. For context, I used to chase steam in all major sports, but for some reason steam-chasing baseball has never yielded me a profit. I've been edumacating myself a little bit and backtesting ideas over the last several years, mostly as an intellectual exercise. I feel reasonably confident that my new approach will be better, but I only backtested this specific method over 250 games, so I would say don't tail these before I've put in at least 500 picks. This is an experiment.***

That said, I am playing these for real money, $10 unit with a $1,000 starting bankroll, with the base unit amount recomputed every day. All bets will be one unit unless otherwise noted. All prices will be pulled from FanDuel, TheScore Bet or Bet365, all of which I'll be funding. Both listed pitchers must start, no action bets. :light:

With that out of the way, let's make some fokkin lunch money boys.

0-0-0, +0.00 units, $1,000

March 28 Opening Day Wagers

LAA +155 (Sandoval/Burnes)
NYY +130 (Cortez/Valdes)
PIT +115 (Keller/Luzardo)
BOS +150 (Bello/Castillo)
 
***Fair warning to anyone who might be tempted to tail these plays - I've yet to have a profitable MLB season. I used to do ok in hockey, foots and hoops. For context, I used to chase steam in all major sports, but for some reason steam-chasing baseball has never yielded me a profit. I've been edumacating myself a little bit and backtesting ideas over the last several years, mostly as an intellectual exercise. I feel reasonably confident that my new approach will be better, but I only backtested this specific method over 250 games, so I would say don't tail these before I've put in at least 500 picks. This is an experiment.***

That said, I am playing these for real money, $10 unit with a $1,000 starting bankroll, with the base unit amount recomputed every day. All bets will be one unit unless otherwise noted. All prices will be pulled from FanDuel, TheScore Bet or Bet365, all of which I'll be funding. Both listed pitchers must start, no action bets. :light:

With that out of the way, let's make some fokkin lunch money boys.

0-0-0, +0.00 units, $1,000

March 28 Opening Day Wagers

LAA +155 (Sandoval/Burnes)
NYY +130 (Cortez/Valdes)
PIT +115 (Keller/Luzardo)
BOS +150 (Bello/Castillo)
GL Matty! In before Shorty calls you a clown for pointing out a loss is no action due to a starting pitcher scratch at some point this season.
 
I am already slightly concerned that the model is spitting out a steady stream of road dogs. I do pass on games unless the actual price is significantly better than the model's implied odds.

I'm not specifically weighing home field advantage, but might do so for habitual outliers like the Rockies. Hypoxic freaks.
 
Great SPORTS thread Matty and Good luck!
meme-sports.gif
 
The thing with the Colorado Rockies is wild. It's not that playing at Coors Field makes them better, it's that NOT playing at elevation makes them really suck.

That boosts the average home advantage in the NL. Colorado literally distributes suckage in the form of extra home wins for other NL teams, except in very few occasions like 1994 where they somehow had a better road than home record. 2011 was also an outlier, they had pretty even home/away splits. Other than that, their splits are wildly off. No one seems to have a good scientific explanation for this.