Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Matty

Bringing Sexy Back
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***Fair warning to anyone who might be tempted to tail these plays - I've yet to have a profitable MLB season. I used to do ok in hockey, foots and hoops. For context, I used to chase steam in all major sports, but for some reason steam-chasing baseball has never yielded me a profit. I've been edumacating myself a little bit and backtesting ideas over the last several years, mostly as an intellectual exercise. I feel reasonably confident that my new approach will be better, but I only backtested this specific method over 250 games, so I would say don't tail these before I've put in at least 500 picks. This is an experiment.***

That said, I am playing these for real money, $10 unit with a $1,000 starting bankroll, with the base unit amount recomputed every day. All bets will be one unit unless otherwise noted. All prices will be pulled from FanDuel, TheScore Bet or Bet365, all of which I'll be funding. Both listed pitchers must start, no action bets. :light:

With that out of the way, let's make some fokkin lunch money boys.

0-0-0, +0.00 units, $1,000

March 28 Opening Day Wagers

LAA +155 (Sandoval/Burnes)
NYY +130 (Cortez/Valdes)
PIT +115 (Keller/Luzardo)
BOS +150 (Bello/Castillo)
 
***Fair warning to anyone who might be tempted to tail these plays - I've yet to have a profitable MLB season. I used to do ok in hockey, foots and hoops. For context, I used to chase steam in all major sports, but for some reason steam-chasing baseball has never yielded me a profit. I've been edumacating myself a little bit and backtesting ideas over the last several years, mostly as an intellectual exercise. I feel reasonably confident that my new approach will be better, but I only backtested this specific method over 250 games, so I would say don't tail these before I've put in at least 500 picks. This is an experiment.***

That said, I am playing these for real money, $10 unit with a $1,000 starting bankroll, with the base unit amount recomputed every day. All bets will be one unit unless otherwise noted. All prices will be pulled from FanDuel, TheScore Bet or Bet365, all of which I'll be funding. Both listed pitchers must start, no action bets. :light:

With that out of the way, let's make some fokkin lunch money boys.

0-0-0, +0.00 units, $1,000

March 28 Opening Day Wagers

LAA +155 (Sandoval/Burnes)
NYY +130 (Cortez/Valdes)
PIT +115 (Keller/Luzardo)
BOS +150 (Bello/Castillo)
GL Matty! In before Shorty calls you a clown for pointing out a loss is no action due to a starting pitcher scratch at some point this season.
 
I'm weighing starting pitchers and bullpens for the first time in my life. Shorty I ain't fucking around this time.
 
GL Matty! In before Shorty calls you a clown for pointing out a loss is no action due to a starting pitcher scratch at some point this season.
I wonder if Shorty can define arbitrage.
 
Title should be “ matty the interpreter”. Not matty rain.
 
I am already slightly concerned that the model is spitting out a steady stream of road dogs. I do pass on games unless the actual price is significantly better than the model's implied odds.

I'm not specifically weighing home field advantage, but might do so for habitual outliers like the Rockies. Hypoxic freaks.
 
Good luck Matty this is outstanding!

What is the line on Matty Stops Making Selections By June?

And what is the max bet


Matttttayyyyyyyyy, I'm just breaking balls you cunt!!


This is actually super cool!

Go Mattyballs!!!

⚾
 
If I correct for home advantage, NYY and PIT become no-bets. Ima leave them there though, s'fine.
 
0-0-0, +0.00 units, $1,000

March 28 Opening Day Wagers

LAA +155 (Sandoval/Burnes)
NYY +130 (Cortez/Valdes)
PIT +115 (Keller/Luzardo)
BOS +150 (Bello/Castillo)

Adding:

CHW +150 (Skubal/Crochet)
 
Great SPORTS thread Matty and Good luck!
meme-sports.gif
 
I fucked up the math a little bit, fixed now. I will let the above bets ride but most of them are now technically no-bets. BOS and CHW are still officially plays. Whatever. Everything is still on.

Adding: ARI -235 (Freeland/Gallen)
 
Which reminds me, I'm going to need access to GL's slush fund. To er, pay bills for you, and stuff. Send me the login bro. I used to translate for a living so I'm super trustworthy.
 
The thing with the Colorado Rockies is wild. It's not that playing at Coors Field makes them better, it's that NOT playing at elevation makes them really suck.

That boosts the average home advantage in the NL. Colorado literally distributes suckage in the form of extra home wins for other NL teams, except in very few occasions like 1994 where they somehow had a better road than home record. 2011 was also an outlier, they had pretty even home/away splits. Other than that, their splits are wildly off. No one seems to have a good scientific explanation for this.