Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Matty
Looks like CHW-TBR is Soroka-Alexander. I have the full game as a +/-182 matchup and the first five as a +/-153. No bet in either case. :handshake:
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CHW starter is actually Mike Clevinger (0.5 WAR). That moves the full game matchup to +/-173 and the first five innings to +/-143.

FanDuel has -168 on the full game right now which is technically a small bet (full Kelly recommends a 1.8% bet). This is too small an edge for us to consider it a play. But strong lean on the Rays for the full game - it would become an actual bet if -165 become available before gametime. First five are a definite no bet.
 
Adding

TBR -165 (full game)
 
Serious question, if you're grinding out wins with serious volume won't the risk management department just clamp down?

It's not as obvious as pounding bad lines on Czech women's volleyball but still the 2-4% edge and high volume of plays should pretty easily finger you as a pro and $10 or $100 won't they just refuse your action?
 
Boner_18
Serious question, if you're grinding out wins with serious volume won't the risk management department just clamp down?

It's not as obvious as pounding bad lines on Czech women's volleyball but still the 2-4% edge and high volume of plays should pretty easily finger you as a pro and $10 or $100 won't they just refuse your action?
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Isn’t that a good reason to use multiple books?
 
Boner_18
Serious question, if you're grinding out wins with serious volume won't the risk management department just clamp down?

It's not as obvious as pounding bad lines on Czech women's volleyball but still the 2-4% edge and high volume of plays should pretty easily finger you as a pro and $10 or $100 won't they just refuse your action?
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I'm asking myself the same thing. I have no clue. FanDuel seems like they wouldn't give a shit until I reach 6 figures, but I might be wrong. TheScore Bet is an unknown quantity and they seem very loose with bonuses. Bet365 is almost unusable for baseball, I should probably pull my money from there.

But yeah I really don't think I'm on their radar playing 10-20 bucks a game. lol
 
Boner_18
Serious question, if you're grinding out wins with serious volume won't the risk management department just clamp down?

It's not as obvious as pounding bad lines on Czech women's volleyball but still the 2-4% edge and high volume of plays should pretty easily finger you as a pro and $10 or $100 won't they just refuse your action?
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In the case of pros, I think all of these legal sites limit your max bet vs. cutting you off entirely... and Matty already limits himself at $10 a pop. Even at a decent ROI, this is nothing to them.

Will be interesting to see long term though if this is a winning strat and he starts bumping up bet sizes where they will draw the line!
 
I might go back on my decision to bet one unit to win x. It's going to screw up the unit results, and Kelly calls for betting more aggressively on big faves.

Need to do some more staking math.
 
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Go Royals. Fuck you Greg.

:royals:
 
@Matty Rain deciding on bet sizing and Kelly

indecisive-i-dont-know.gif
 
It's less scientific than that. I basically have to decide what I think my edge is.

what is my edge
 
Why is Chris Stratton, a guy with a -0.1 WAR and a career 1.41 WHIP, your fucking closer?
 
:woohoo:

Sorry Chris, you're a fine slightly-below-replacement-level closer. Good job today bud.
 
On the topic of baseball, why is baseball-reference such a dumpster fire of a website? Who the fuck designed that layout?
 
Matty
On the topic of baseball, why is baseball-reference such a dumpster fire of a website? Who the fuck designed that layout?
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The worst.

I never venture over there unless absolutely necessary
 
Matty
Buehler?!?
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The Marlins love hitting well against premier pitchers. Throw a soft tossing guy who's been tooling around in AAA for 5 years at the Marlins and they'll manage 2 hits in 7 innings.
 
4-1 on the full games :woohoo:
3-1 on the first 5 so far with LAD pending

Buehler getting lit up though
 
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