Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

They also have a $25 homerun prop bet promo. You gotta bet $25 on a HR prop and you get a $5 bonus bet for every HR that is hit during that same game, no matter the result of your bet. Was thinking about putting $25 on Elly de la Cruz but I dunno. This doesn't seem like a great deal.

Edit - They call it Dinger Tuesday, lol

 

[Matty]

I should actually bet a DBack player. BRB.

 

[Matty]

Meh, pass.

 

[Matty]

C'mon Rays, just one out

Edit -

 

[Matty]

 

[Matty]

Frustrating day in the end, many blown saves. I think we went 8-7 but lost a couple units. Will update later this AM.

 

[roguejuror]

I was watching the three that ended up losing late

STL FF
SDP
MIN

 

[stevek]

I was watching the three that ended up losing late

STL FF
SDP
MIN

Wow, as if you haven't been through enough already

 

[Matty]

Alright, before I update the record, I've thought about it and I need to be more careful when betting the same game (full game and first five). Going forward I'll only bet both if I don't have 12+ plays for the day. For a day like yesterday that had 15 plays I'll play just the one that has the biggest theoretical edge. Otherwise yeah, we're going back to betting x to win 1 unit on everything. Let's not be ghey.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 120-114 +4.86u

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
YTD 29-18-10 +6.01u

Kelly bankroll after Day 1 - $278.80
New Kelly bet amount - $8.36

Tuesday May 7

FULL GAMES
ARI -126 ($18.36 to win $14.58)
LAA +115 ($18.36 to win $21.11)
BOS +160 ($18.36 to win $29.38)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
KCR -125 ($22.95 to win $18.36)

FIRST FIVE
TEX -112 ($20.56 to win $18.36)
ARI -118 ($18.36 to win $15.56)
BAL -200 ($36.72 to win $18.36)
TBR -230 ($42.23 to win $18.36)
NYY -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
SDP +140 ($18.36 to win $25.70)
MIN -145 ($18.36 to win $12.66)
STL -120 ($22.03 to win $18.36)
LAD -280 ($51.41 to win $18.36)

FULL GAMES
2-4 -2.1u
YTD 122-118 +2.76u

FIRST FIVE
6-3 +1.34u
YTD 35-21-10 +7.35u

Kelly bankroll after Day 2 - $272.45
New Kelly bet amount - $8.17

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 122-118 +2.76u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 35-21-10 +7.35u

Kelly bankroll after Day 2 - $272.45
New Kelly bet amount - $8.17 ($18.17 total bet)

Wednesday May 8 (all bets are to win 1 unit)

FULL GAMES
PIT -134
TOR +150
SDP -125
LAD -250

FIRST FIVE
PIT -128
CLE -128
STL -158
LAD -240
TEX -106

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
WSH +150
NYY -152
SEA -105
COL +154

FIRST FIVE
TBR -220
NYY -145
ATL -190

 

[Tron]

Wednesday May 8 (all bets are to win 1 unit)


FIRST FIVE
PIT -128
CLE -128
STL -158
LAD -240
TEX -106

Matty, be careful there are two TEX/OAK games today.

 

[Matty]

Goddammit. Let's see.

I bet the correct one! Lorenzen-Sears

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 122-118 +2.76u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 35-21-10 +7.35u

Kelly bankroll after Day 2 - $272.45
New Kelly bet amount - $8.17 ($18.17 total bet)

Wednesday May 8 (all bets are to win 1 unit)

FULL GAMES
PIT -134
TOR +150
SDP -125
LAD -250
WSH +150
NYY -152
SEA -105
COL +154

FIRST FIVE
PIT -128
CLE -128
STL -158
LAD -240
TEX -106 (Game #1, Lorenzen/Spears)
TBR -220
NYY -145
ATL -190

 

[Matty]

Pirateballs come back from 0-2 in the bottom of the 5th!

 

[roguejuror]

Going forward I'll only bet both if I don't have 12+ plays for the day. For a day like yesterday that had 15 plays I'll play just the one that has the biggest theoretical edge

did you go back on this? because you have LAD and NYY

 

[Matty]

I ignored my own new rule. It's always a mad dash to go through the matchups and I place the bets as I post them to make sure I get those odds. I never know how many bets I'll end up placing.

My bankroll is low enough that I can supplement it if I overshoot my edge and funds get low. It's fine for now.