Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Uncomfortably close to the truth.
 
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So 3 weeks ago, the day I decided to move on from pre-season WAR projections, I was sitting at -14.72u.

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Assuming Dodgers hold tonight, I will have made close to 35 units over those 3 weeks. 35 units over 163 plays.

Shit is wild.
 
Still a little confused why you haven't clicked up unit size to $15 or $20.

Is it because of the volume of plays on a daily basis (First Five and Full Game combined)?
 
I'm just gun-shy after years of having no success in MLB. So many 0'fers. I'm still traumatized by that 3-27 run.

I might go to $15 soon, once I have over 1500 bucks between my 3 books.
 
I suggest we name this model Freddie as in Freddie Roach

Freddie 1.0
 
Matty
I'm just gun-shy after years of having no success in MLB. So many 0'fers. I'm still traumatized by that 3-27 run.

I might go to $15 soon, once I have over 1500 bucks between my 3 books.
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I totally understand
 
@roguejuror Because it's shaky? (It's a Parkinson's joke.)
 
Matty
YTD 114-106 +9.59u $1097.78

Saturday May 4

NYY -155 :greencheck:
KCR EV :redx:
HOU -140 :redx:
LAD -174 :greencheck:
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2-2 -0.4u (-$4.12)

YTD 116-108 +9.19u $1093.66
 
YTD 116-108 +9.19u $1093.66

Sunday May 5

NYM +105
HOU -124
STL -155
MIL -122
SFG -120
 
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I'm toying with the idea of earmarking a small amount of money, say $250, and betting it separately at full Kelly.

@Tron where do you play baseball?
 
Sunday May 5

FULL GAMES
YTD 116-108 +9.19u

NYM +105
HOU -124
STL -155
MIL -122
SFG -120

FIRST FIVE INNINGS
YTD 25-11-10 +11.87u

WSH -115
MIN -165
MIL -130
OAK -130
CIN -120
SFG -122

GRAND TOTALS
141-119-10 +20.89u
Kelly Bankroll (Day 0) $250
 
Here's what would've happened if I'd been betting at (close to) full Kelly since the beginning, recomputing the unit amount every single day:

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Current balance would be $1790, and the lowest point would've been April 14 with a balance of $639.

Now, this is unrealistic because I had no idea going in what my edge was going to be. I still only have a faint idea. But I like the idea of earmarking $250 and going full-Kelly with it. It technically limits our losses to $250 total (which can totally happen if I overshoot my edge). We're already playing with house money thanks to bonuses and free plays so it should be ok to handle emotionally. But I am not a cool and calm person and I sweat every day's results, all the time. Can't help it.

We'll see how it goes. I'm mostly concerned about my sleep. Not joking.
 
We may well go 0-11 today.

As a reminder, I opened the thread with this PSA:
Matty
***Fair warning to anyone who might be tempted to tail these plays - I've yet to have a profitable MLB season. I used to do ok in hockey, foots and hoops. For context, I used to chase steam in all major sports, but for some reason steam-chasing baseball has never yielded me a profit. I've been edumacating myself a little bit and backtesting ideas over the last several years, mostly as an intellectual exercise. I feel reasonably confident that my new approach will be better, but I only backtested this specific method over 250 games, so I would say don't tail these before I've put in at least 500 picks. This is an experiment.***
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