The Durito 500

wal66
In 2 of the games on today's card I personally disagree with. I don't like the UNDER in the Boston game as Wakefield is getting older and if that knuckler isn't dancing he could get shelled early.

I also have a problem in the Marlins OVER. This game could very easily end up a 3-0 or 2-1 type game.

I am sticking to the system though and not allowing myself to over-think the situation.



Today's Plays:

Seattle/Boston UNDER 8 (-105) WINNER
Minnesota/Kansas City OVER 8.5 (-115) WINNER
Florida/Cincinnati OVER 8.5 (-105) WINNER
Chicago/Arizona OVER 9.5 (+110) LOSER
Boston +107 WINNER

Plays are $100 to win $95, $86, $105, $110 and $107.
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4-1 (+$293)

Durito Record: 187-144-6 (+$2665)
 
steamrolling
 
A coin flipping Wakky now has a 94.15% chance of winning the contest.

Wakky - when this is over (win or lose) I'll do a little write up about the statistics behind the challenge and I'll get you to answer some questions. If you win, I'll even do that other write up that I promised.
 
Polaroid, what's the statistical significance of Wally's record so far?
 
Nice day, Wally.
 
reno cool
Polaroid, what's the statistical significance of Wally's record so far?
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Since he appears to be using -110 lines, it's easier to just assume that all bets are at -110/-110 odds. A lot of plays have been baseball where I'm assuming he was getting 10 cent lines but I'm also assuming that he hasn't been line shopping to get the prevailing market rate throughout the whole challenge so let's just assume that everything equals out.

Getting a profit of $2665 over 331 bets (I'm ignoring the 6 pushes) at -110/-110 equates to a record of 188.24 wins and 142.76 losses. Looking at the 3 standard deviation level, there is no evidence to say he is anything but a coinflipper (although there probably would be evidence if he continued at an identical record until the end of the challenge) but loosening it to 2SD shows that he could be as high as a true 0.513 handicapper.

Please note, all calculations were done very quickly and could be prone to errors although it does appear accurate enough.
 
ha, interesting stuff.
How do you know how many standard deviations to go with?
 
reno cool
How do you know how many standard deviations to go with?
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That's a matter of personal preference, but the higher you can prove it the better. If the data gives him an 75% chance of not being a coinflipper then there is still a 25% of him actually being a coinflipper - that's more likely than not but it's not in any way definitive. Wakky is only about 2/3 into the challenge, an increased number of observations will give a better answer.
 
being above 2 SD's make him "retardly" above pace
 
Last week turned out to be a good week and the weekend was very good. There were several days that I posted plays and just felt like I was donating a bunch of losses but in the end many of those games actually were winners. For me it further proves my theory that when you remove your head from the process it doesnt have to make sense.

I am playing around still with how to choose sides. I have a bunch of side qualifiers today but am only posting them for tracking purposes. My only plays today are a couple of totals.

The sides that qualify are,
Oakland (-112)
Detroit (-116)
LA Angels (-101)
Chicago White Sox (-113)
Atlanta (-140)
Florida (+152)
Pittsburgh (+136)
The Dodgers also qualify but at (-195) I wouldnt play it even if I were playing these.

Todays Play:

LA Angels/Boston UNDER 8 (-105)
Houston/Cincinnati OVER 8.5 (-115)

Plays are $100 to win $95 and $86.
Pittsburgh/San Diego also qualified as an UNDER but wasnt supported on ERA filter.
 
i'm already on the cincy/houston over.... good luck
 
Arch, P-Roid is trying to derail me with all this coinflipper talk and spreading the math propaganda. Archie, I am at 56% right now and while it is a far cry from the 60% I hoped (hope still) to achieve it is a hella lot better than 51%.

P-Roid's math would discourage me if I paid much attention.
 
I don't think Polaroid is trying to derail anything. Just providing some scientific commentary.
 
either way, keep your eye on the prize Wally.....

I guess now we see that Blackie made a good business decision.... it had nothing to do with him being a pussy and bleeding all over his keyboard due to the walmart comment.

he knew that even if a few dozen members started reading and following your picks on your blog. he'd be buried.

Wally, I've really admired your discipline in this thread. you never let your success go to your head. and you use plenty of discretion.

if guys like me had your discipline we wouldn't be down as much as we are lifetime....

keep it going pal
 
Archie
either way, keep your eye on the prize Wally.....

I guess now we see that Blackie made a good business decision.... it had nothing to do with him being a pussy and bleeding all over his keyboard due to the walmart comment.

he knew that even if a few dozen members started reading and following your picks on your blog. he'd be buried.

Wally, I've really admired your discipline in this thread. you never let your success go to your head. and you use plenty of discretion.

if guys like me had your discipline we wouldn't be down as much as we are lifetime....

keep it going pal
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There is nothing to get big-headed about Arch. I am below what I had set as a personal goal in this of hitting at a 60% clip. Not that I am not very happy with the progress because I am. As for the discipline that has been easy. I have gone through 1 sport I have never had any success at, one sport that I have never wagered on or realy ever even watched and now another sport that outside a couple games here and there have never wagered on.

Daft
I don't think Polaroid is trying to derail anything. Just providing some scientific commentary.
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Daft, I was being sarcastic about P-Roid and the math, only kidding about it all.
 
ok wal,


shoot for 60% in this challenge. just don't shoot for/hit that target in real life with real wagers

that would suck
 
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