New York Jets are going to be a MAJOR Philosophy Pick this weekend

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reno cool
It's a big plus that it was winning every year individually. I would guess the good record is due to more than randomness. I tend to think the lines are shaded in the direction of Dave's philosophy.
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I implore you to go to the archives and run my posted spreads against the actual spreads over the last five years. Let me know if you find any discrepancies. Thanks.
 
Vegas Dave
I implore you to go to the archives and run my posted spreads against the actual spreads over the last five years. Let me know if you find any discrepancies. Thanks.
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I think you misunderstood.
 
:dunno: you might be misunderstanding what I said.

Basically, I'm saying you probably have a winning strategy.
 
Nobody likes a winner, Davey. Screw these guys. :robynballs:
 
reno cool
:dunno: you might be misunderstanding what I said.

Basically, I'm saying you probably have a winning strategy.
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Ooooooh, I thought you were going the he's-like-pags route, like I was using lines that helped my cause.

I'm sorry. I'm tired, I have a ton of work to do, I'm cranky, and I'm defensive.

The correct response was "Thank You", not "WANNA FIGHT ABOUT IT?!?". Sorry man.
 
Reno Cool? More like Reno FOOL!

I got your back Davey.
 
I like the pick, David.

I'm not sure if I'll be on it or not yet since I don't model NFL, but it certainly looks like a non-public side.
 
I assume a 'philosophy' pick implies that there is a disconnect based on recent performance and actual predictive performance moving forward, and in that regard I definitely agree.
 
Kansas City (+2.5) @ Cleveland (-2.5)
Gift-wrapped philosophy pick. Any time a team beats a division rival on Monday Night and plays a non-division rival the following week, it's pretty much an automatic philosophy pick for me. But even if this weren't automatic, the fact that this Kansas City team that electrified on Monday Night with the whole country watching over one of the AFC's elite teams in San Diego is an underdog to pretty much everyone's unanimous choice as the worst team in the league? AND, that horrible team (Cleveland) will be even worse with Jake Delhomme doubtful? AND the fact that the spread hasn't changed despite 80% action on KC and this injury news? Las Vegas couldn't be begging us to take Kansas City more. I'll happily go the other way in a big letdown spot for the Chiefs.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Cleveland

New England (-3.0) @ NY Jets (+3.0)
If the Cleveland philosophy pick is gift-wrapped, this one is gift-wrapped in silk and comes in a a basket full of chocolates. Let's just reel off all of the philosophy-elements to this game.

1. Last week's results: New England looked to be back in video-game form with a healthy Wes Welker in the first half against a very good Cinci team, they cruise easily. New York has one of the worst offensive games I've ever seen (coming from a Raider fan, that says a lot), on national television Monday Night no less. Clear-cut one team coming off of a great game, one off of a horrible game.
2. Opening spread: New England -1.0? Now New England -3.0? It's no surprise, considering the results listed above, that New England would be circled on almost everyone's board. Then they get this gift of a spread? No shocker that 85%+ bet New England (90% early). Could have easily opened at -3.0 or -3.5 and received equal betting on both sides. Where did bookmakers want you betting?
3. Home pride: Any team that loses at home as a favorite that is an underdog at home the following week is an automatic for me, considering how much any team would want to avoid the embarrassment of losing in front of their home fans again when they "should have" won last week. Plus, the added bonus of no travel.
4. High powered offense VS. shutdown defense: About as textbook as it gets in this one.

There are no guarantees in sports, especially when it comes to picking against a team of New England's caliber. And even if my philosophy picks are 60% career, that means they still lose 2 of every 5. But with that disclaimer, won't see to many that fit the bill this beautifully. I'm loving the Jets.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^NY Jets
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*NY Jets
 
Pretty balzy pick going with the gang green at home against the Pats. I'm totally on the other side on that one, but good luck. As for the K.C at Clev game, I gave up trying to pick a side, but the over is practically a lock in my view. Of course it doesn't rise to the level of my annual Super Nova Lock of the Moment that I have each and every year going 9-0 since its inception and 4 - 0 on many sports forum boards if you want to hunt it down for yourselves, so to go over, it is possible that Cleveland will indeed have to show up and play. Kansas City won with smoke and mirrors last Monday when no-one on the east coast with a job saw past half time.
 
GL Dave, ballsy pick indeed. Can't wait to see that game.
 
Great call on the Jets Davey!

:tomato:
 
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