New York Jets are going to be a MAJOR Philosophy Pick this weekend

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I remember Philosophy Frog. That was a good frog.
 
Kyle Orton, ouch. lol. At least he's much better looking. Or so I've heard.
 
I'm not familiar with Philosophy Picks. Is that something along the lines of Rubberband Plays?

Is there a Rubberband frog?
 
good luck davey

I don't like that pick
 
Mudcat
I'm not familiar with Philosophy Picks. Is that something along the lines of Rubberband Plays?

Is there a Rubberband frog?
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I'm not exactly sure what a Rubberband play is, so I couldn't tell you.

Philosophy picks generally fall into one of two categories, either:

1. Factoring in heavily the emotional aspects to a game, motivation, etc when the stats dictate otherwise.
2. Factoring in a line that looks way off, is getting bet 90% on the other side, reverse line movement, etc.

Or, in some cases I love like this game, BOTH.

108 - 67 - 6 (61.7%) all time against the spread with these, dating back to 2005. 2006 was the only year I finished worse than 58% at 24-22-2, and looking back I think I was a little too lenient in calling some games philosophy picks considering the amazing season I had with them in '05. Not including 2006, I'm hitting 65%.... but then, that sounds kind of tout-y. But just saying, I'm pretty confident with these.
 
Kinda sorry I brought it up.
 
dave I'm with you
 
Mudcat
Kinda sorry I brought it up.
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Why, not happy with the answer?

I understand that it could all be just a nice standard deviation based on a small sample size that will trickle back towards 50% sooner or later. I'm not claiming to be a world beater or that I have some magical system that can't lose. I'm strictly stating the facts; I'm confident in these because I've done well with them so far.

http://www.davesdime.com/archive/nfl-newsletter/ - Here's a copy of every single newsletter I've written over the last five years. It's all there.
 
Vegas Dave
Two, I can tell you from experience, when you pick against what looks to be an obvious winner and get crushed, it is not a "win" and a "that Dave, he's so ballsy". It's "wow, what a fucking idiot".
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:biglaugh: Been there. :wah:

And please don't let Herman chase you off. Common Davey, it's Herman! You can slap him around as you wish.
 
Vegas Dave
I understand that it could all be just a nice standard deviation based on a small sample size
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Especially that 24-22-2 year that you think had something to do with you being "lenient". Common Davey, it's not even 50 picks. 61.8% over 180 picks is a pretty solid headstart to a good sample size though.

(If you care to know I evaluate my performance in blocks of 500 bets, which is the smallest "unit" I can use to break down my spreadsheet and still observe some consistency.)
 
Matt Rain
(If you care to know I evaluate my performance in blocks of 500 bets, which is the smallest "unit" I can use to break down my spreadsheet and still observe some consistency)
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Sounds good; I'll get back to you in nine-or-so years when I hit 500 :thumbsup:
 
Slacker.
 
Matt Rain
Especially that 24-22-2 year that you think had something to do with you being "lenient". Common Davey, it's not even 50 picks. 61.8% over 180 picks is a pretty solid headstart to a good sample size though.

(If you care to know I evaluate my performance in blocks of 500 bets, which is the smallest "unit" I can use to break down my spreadsheet and still observe some consistency.)
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It's a big plus that it was winning every year individually. I would guess the good record is due to more than randomness. I tend to think the lines are shaded in the direction of Dave's philosophy.
 
Good job hitting 61% with these. Once again the first week of the NFL tells me I don't know how to pick winners. Madmaxx, you bastard!
 
Herman
durito you are just showing off with that post

sharp

patriots -1 -113 pinny opener
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dude even you could have nailed these sportsbetting game of the year lines on their parlay card. i don't know shit about what lines should be on nfl games and i did. pats +4.5, giants +10, titans -2 . i have 2 and 3 game parlays on those.
 
durito
dude even you could have nailed these sportsbetting game of the year lines on their parlay card. i don't know shit about what lines should be on nfl games and i did. pats +4.5, giants +10, titans -2 . i have 2 and 3 game parlays on those.
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What was your limit on these?
 
Aren't all philosophy picks the same unit value? So why is this one called MAJOR?
 
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