Polaroid
I need a tittle
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- Jan 21, 2010
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It's all change with the Oscars this year as there are 10 films up for the Best Picture award instead of the usual 5 nominations. This isn't a revolutionary idea, it was common in the early years to have up to 12 nominations, but it was an unusual move all the same. The official reason is that with more nominees, The Academy is able to recognize some quality films that might have been overlooked in the other categories. Personally I think someone paid a huge bribe to somehow get the dreadful The Blind Side in the mix.
And how the market has changed over the space of less than 2 months. Just before Christmas Bodog released their Best Picture odds, over a month away from when the official nominations were released, and Avatar was a +775 third favorite but the odds have fallen at the same rate as the increase in the film's box office receipts. Despite releasing lines for 26 films, they still failed to guess 2 of the 10 films that made The Academy's cut (those being The Blind Side and District 9). Fast forward to today, Avatar is the strong favorite for Best Movie and is priced at anything between a -116 and -300 favorite at the four sample books.
That's a huge difference for this market but prop bets like this - with a very high level of public bettors - are generally low limit and have a very high book edge. Even the normally competitive Pinnacle has over a 15% hold on this prop bet despite only having 3 alternatives - compare that to -105 lines with a hold less than 2.5%; even classic -110 lines are just a touch over a 4.5% hold but line shopping on this market between the two favorites and “the field” can reduce this to less than a 2% hold. The Hurt Locker is by far the better film against Avatar and it's the huge movement of money that has slashed the odds on the latter. Kathryn Bigelow should win Best Director and it might be that the top prizes are split between the former husband and wife. But if the books are willing people to bet Avatar at ridiculous odds and people are still biting, take The Hurt Locker but shop around for your price.
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And how the market has changed over the space of less than 2 months. Just before Christmas Bodog released their Best Picture odds, over a month away from when the official nominations were released, and Avatar was a +775 third favorite but the odds have fallen at the same rate as the increase in the film's box office receipts. Despite releasing lines for 26 films, they still failed to guess 2 of the 10 films that made The Academy's cut (those being The Blind Side and District 9). Fast forward to today, Avatar is the strong favorite for Best Movie and is priced at anything between a -116 and -300 favorite at the four sample books.
That's a huge difference for this market but prop bets like this - with a very high level of public bettors - are generally low limit and have a very high book edge. Even the normally competitive Pinnacle has over a 15% hold on this prop bet despite only having 3 alternatives - compare that to -105 lines with a hold less than 2.5%; even classic -110 lines are just a touch over a 4.5% hold but line shopping on this market between the two favorites and “the field” can reduce this to less than a 2% hold. The Hurt Locker is by far the better film against Avatar and it's the huge movement of money that has slashed the odds on the latter. Kathryn Bigelow should win Best Director and it might be that the top prizes are split between the former husband and wife. But if the books are willing people to bet Avatar at ridiculous odds and people are still biting, take The Hurt Locker but shop around for your price.
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