Sunday Night Fathers Day Baseball 8:05 PM

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FW, you're taking A&M money line?

I kind of like the UNDER in the game myself but like I said I can't get action on it. I looked at Pinny and saw Gamecocks were -152 and the total was at 7.5. Don't really know anything about A&M but South Carolina will play small ball and solid defense and pitching so unless A&M is a scoring machine (which the total suggest they aren't) I think the under is a good play.
 
wal66
FW, you're taking A&M money line?

I kind of like the UNDER in the game myself but like I said I can't get action on it. I looked at Pinny and saw Gamecocks were -152 and the total was at 7.5. Don't really know anything about A&M but South Carolina will play small ball and solid defense and pitching so unless A&M is a scoring machine (which the total suggest they aren't) I think the under is a good play.
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A&M is a gap-hitting team and very aggressive on the bases. This is the park for them.
 
I've seen every Cubs game this year, and it seems like they rake against lefties.

Don't know what the SABRmetrics say but I like the Cubs here straight up at the price. Love their lineup against LHP's.
 
MF'r I have a pretty elementary question so bear with me....

As a Relative Value bettor with a high volume is it safe to assume that you yield positive units year after year in MLB?

If yes, are there big swings from one season to the next?

If no, how is it possible with such a high volume of +EV plays?
 
Herman
I've seen every Cubs game this year, and it seems like they rake against lefties.

Don't know what the SABRmetrics say but I like the Cubs here straight up at the price. Love their lineup against LHP's.
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Not a big fan of making wagers based on "it seems like they rake against LHP's" analysis.
 
Herman
I've seen every Cubs game this year, and it seems like they rake against lefties.

Don't know what the SABRmetrics say but I like the Cubs here straight up at the price. Love their lineup against LHP's.
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If you seen all the Cubs games and they hit lefties, why would SABRmetrics matter?
 
FairWarning
If you seen all the Cubs games and they hit lefties, why would SABRmetrics matter?
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I didn't have the numbers in front of me and I could have had just selective memory.

I looked it up, and Cubs RHB against LHP bat at a .316 clip. Overall as a team they are batting .278 against LHP but the entire lineup is RHB tonight. Pena's numbers against lefties are at a sub-.100 clip (.061 to be exact) so it helps that Jeff Baker is in his spot (23-46, .500 against lefties) tonight.

Also, recently, due to injuries, they couldn't trot a RH-heavy lineup out against lefties because Reed Johnson, Jeff Baker, Soriano, and Soto have been on the DL. They can now since they have most of their offensive firepower back sans Marlon Byrd.
 
FairWarning
If you seen all the Cubs games and they hit lefties, why would SABRmetrics matter?
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Because maybe what he "sees" and remembers is not a good representation as to what's actually occurring?
 
Herman
I didn't have the numbers in front of me and I could have had just selective memory.

I looked it up, and Cubs RHB against LHP bat at a .316 clip. Overall as a team they are batting .278 against LHP but the entire lineup is RHB tonight. Pena's numbers against lefties are at a sub-.100 clip so it helps that Jeff Baker is in his spot (23-46, .500 against lefties) tonight.
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Ah. I think I will pass of this game. Just another game to the Yankees. I hate relying on the Jeff Bakers for win for me. if i were playing, it would be Daft's Cubs +1.5
 
Daft
Because maybe what he "sees" and remembers is not a good representation as to what's actually occurring?
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Exactly. Even though they hit lefties well, it's just as likely that Wells gets hammered. Baseball is a funny game, we saw that Friday with Doug Davis throwing a gem.
 
Daft
Because maybe what he "sees" and remembers is not a good representation as to what's actually occurring?
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I think Sabr should be used here to back up his point, not to make his point. That's why I'm a big believer in playing a few teams and knowing them inside-out.
 
FairWarning
Ah. I think I will pass of this game. Just another game to the Yankees. I hate relying on the Jeff Bakers for win for me. if i were playing, it would be Daft's Cubs +1.5
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He hits .328 in 442 lifetime at-bats against lefties. You'd rather have Carlos Pena and his .061 in the lineup? The +1.5 isn't bad either though I guess.
 
Herman
Exactly. Even though they hit lefties well, it's just as likely that Wells gets hammered. Baseball is a funny game, we saw that Friday with Doug Davis throwing a gem.
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He has pitched pretty good for them actually. Started off bad but has been hitting his spots the last few games.
 
wal66
It doesn't change the fact that I would still prefer a CWS game Coug's.
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I know. But you sited an "enthusiastic competitive atmosphere" as a reason.

I am explaining that's exactly what this Cubs/Yankees series has delivered thus far.

Now put the lotion in the basket Wally.
 
Herman
He hits .328 in 442 lifetime at-bats against lefties. You'd rather have Carlos Pena and his .061 in the lineup? The +1.5 isn't bad either though I guess.
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Pena has been hitting better, and they really need his HR threat in the middle of the lineup. Lets face it, the cubs can't score much, and they have the worst defense in the NL. They need to find a way to score runs in that park. Pena was a bad signing for sure.
 
FairWarning
Pena has been hitting better, and they really need his HR threat in the middle of the lineup. Lets face it, the cubs can't score much, and they have the worst defense in the NL. They need to find a way to score runs in that park. Pena was a bad signing for sure.
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They just needed a 1 year stopgap before they sign Pujols or Fielder to a long-term deal. I'd prefer Fielder for $200 million over Pujols for $300 million, Fielder will probably outperform Pujols over the course of their next contracts.

Cubs weren't going to do anything this year anyways, especially after all the injuries. Be lucky to get to .500 by the end of the year.
 
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