Stale line bookie take 2

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12-9 posted yesterday.
Rito, I'm sure the teaser was-EV but if you get a chance could you dissect it for me? Did some research on "sweetheart" teasers and most stated they were a -EV bet. Not sure how to calculate.
 
Denver 3.5 Cleveland over 42 Detroit-4 Chicago-3.5 Houston -10. Teaser: Cleveland over 32 Giants +7 Houston pick em
Teaser: denver +6.5 Cleveland over 32 detroit +6
 
:hides:Rito going to be upset with me for being a sucker on teasers.
 
It's best to look at a teaser as a parlay where you are buying points.

At -120 you have to win (120/220) 54.54% of the time to break even. To find the break even for each leg of our teaser then we take the cube root (since it's a 3 teamer) of .5454 and we get .82.

So, each leg must cover 82% of the time, which is equal to a money line of ~ -455 to break even.

So basically what you would have with this first NFL teaser is a parlay of Denver +6.5 -455, Detroit +6 -455 and cle over 32 -455

Taking Denver +6.5. A simple way to do this is to take the closing money line at pinnacle which was -225/201 which implies the Broncos win straight up 67.6% of the time.

Ok, so we know Denver wins 67.6% of the time, so now we need to know how often denver loses by 1-6 where we would still win our teaser. There are few ways to do this but most basically you can just look at database of past similar lines and see how often those #'s occured. For road favorites around -5 in the NFL I get 0-6 historically happening around 11% of the time (i would actually estimate this as a little higher but still not good enough). Which would make the odds on our teaser 78.6% of winning.

So we took a spread of -3.5 -110 which based on the pinnacle closing line of -5 -105/-103 represented a 3.21% edge (based on sbr's outdated 1/2 pt calculator) and turned it into a bet with an edge of -4.125%

I didn't look up the numbers but I would expect the same for Detroit and probably worse for the total tease. The NCAAF are certainly worse as the pts arent worth nearly enough in college football.

The problem with the denver and det tease is you are picking up a whole bunch of worthless pts around 0 and you aren't crossing the 7 which would be necessary to pick up enough value.
 
I always do parlays instead of teasers. Only time I do a teaser is if I tease both -6.5 to -0.5 and the parlay pays less than -110.
 
rito
It's best to look at a teaser as a parlay where you are buying points.

At -120 you have to win (120/220) 54.54% of the time to break even. To find the break even for each leg of our teaser then we take the cube root (since it's a 3 teamer) of .5454 and we get .82.

So, each leg must cover 82% of the time, which is equal to a money line of ~ -455 to break even.

So basically what you would have with this first NFL teaser is a parlay of Denver +6.5 -455, Detroit +6 -455 and cle over 32 -455

Taking Denver +6.5. A simple way to do this is to take the closing money line at pinnacle which was -225/201 which implies the Broncos win straight up 67.6% of the time.

Ok, so we know Denver wins 67.6% of the time, so now we need to know how often denver loses by 1-6 where we would still win our teaser. There are few ways to do this but most basically you can just look at database of past similar lines and see how often those #'s occured. For road favorites around -5 in the NFL I get 0-6 historically happening around 11% of the time (i would actually estimate this as a little higher but still not good enough). Which would make the odds on our teaser 78.6% of winning.

So we took a spread of -3.5 -110 which based on the pinnacle closing line of -5 -105/-103 represented a 3.21% edge (based on sbr's outdated 1/2 pt calculator) and turned it into a bet with an edge of -4.125%

I didn't look up the numbers but I would expect the same for Detroit and probably worse for the total tease. The NCAAF are certainly worse as the pts arent worth nearly enough in college football.

The problem with the denver and det tease is you are picking up a whole bunch of worthless pts around 0 and you aren't crossing the 7 which would be necessary to pick up enough value.
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Awesome, awesome breakdown of everything. Thanks for taking the time to explain it. Certainly helpful information for anybody that takes the time to read. :cheers:
 
Received confirmation this morning that I will be paid this week but no more bets will be accepted. At least he didn't die.
 
FINAL Posted NFL/NCAA results for Bookie # 2

NEWSPAPER 73 - 47 - 1 60.83%
CURRENT 70 - 49 - 2 58.82%

FINAL actual results. Will try to go back and see how results would have been affected with current lines as well.

NCAA 106-80 56.99%
NFL 35-26 57.38%
 
Saulty
Lines don't win games. Players and coaches win games. So pick the team that has the greatest chance to cover the spread. You are betting $50 a game so getting the best line would have no significant effect to your bottom line. Now if you are betting $5000 a game getting the best line is important.
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Yes FF, very early on I learned a valuable lesson from Pavy.

Everybody was very helpful. I didn't make a lot of money, but I did win and get paid. Everybody that offered advice, it was much appreciated.
 
Great job mcb!

I learned a lot of lessons from other posters here too. Wished I had a local bookie. Where can I find one here in Atlanta? Can you get me a referral from your bookie?.
 
rito
It's best to look at a teaser as a parlay where you are buying points.

At -120 you have to win (120/220) 54.54% of the time to break even. To find the break even for each leg of our teaser then we take the cube root (since it's a 3 teamer) of .5454 and we get .82.

So, each leg must cover 82% of the time, which is equal to a money line of ~ -455 to break even.

So basically what you would have with this first NFL teaser is a parlay of Denver +6.5 -455, Detroit +6 -455 and cle over 32 -455

Taking Denver +6.5. A simple way to do this is to take the closing money line at pinnacle which was -225/201 which implies the Broncos win straight up 67.6% of the time.

Ok, so we know Denver wins 67.6% of the time, so now we need to know how often denver loses by 1-6 where we would still win our teaser. There are few ways to do this but most basically you can just look at database of past similar lines and see how often those #'s occured. For road favorites around -5 in the NFL I get 0-6 historically happening around 11% of the time (i would actually estimate this as a little higher but still not good enough). Which would make the odds on our teaser 78.6% of winning.

So we took a spread of -3.5 -110 which based on the pinnacle closing line of -5 -105/-103 represented a 3.21% edge (based on sbr's outdated 1/2 pt calculator) and turned it into a bet with an edge of -4.125%

I didn't look up the numbers but I would expect the same for Detroit and probably worse for the total tease. The NCAAF are certainly worse as the pts arent worth nearly enough in college football.

The problem with the denver and det tease is you are picking up a whole bunch of worthless pts around 0 and you aren't crossing the 7 which would be necessary to pick up enough value.
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Good stuff here Durito.
 
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