Stale line bookie take 2

mcbaseball10

Beaten but not broken
Alright boys, I found a new local in Ohio to take some action using Friday's lines for NCAA and NFL action. Let's see how it goes. I plan on making all plays that are -130 or better on Pinnacle at the time making the play. All plays are -110 with this guy. We are starting out with $50 per game and will make adjustment once we get a feel for it. This is as good a place as any to track it.

Any advice on whether my method needs to be tweaked or if my conversions are flawed, please let me know.
 
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mcbaseball10

Beaten but not broken
9/16/12

Vikings-1.5 (-3 -133 equiv.)
Eagles-2 (-2 -138)
Jags +7.5 (+6.5 -144)
Saints over 51 (53.5 ??)
Oakland over 37 (40.5 ??)
Jags under 41.5 (40 -132)
Rams under 45.5 (42.5??)
 
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mcbaseball10

Beaten but not broken
Rito told me to use half point calc and I guess I got lazy. Never done kelly so will have to figure it out. Thanks.
 

MonkeyF0cker

Mean People Suck
Just bet some sort of spread ($110/$165/$220/etc.). Hard to bet Kelly without a database or model.

I wouldn't trust the 1/2 point calc except as a basic guideline. It probably hasn't been updated in four years anyway.
 

mcbaseball10

Beaten but not broken
Just bet some sort of spread ($110/$165/$220/etc.). Hard to bet Kelly without a database or model.

I wouldn't trust the 1/2 point calc except as a basic guideline. It probably hasn't been updated in four years anyway.
I was just using pinny drop downs. Kelly seems a bit complicated for me but would be willing to learn if it would be beneficial. So would tiering bets based on pinny work? Say a -135 to-145 would be $75(base $50 right now) etc. How would you approach it if in my shoes? It cant be that different from MLB and NBA which worked out fairly well for me ( until I didnt get paid)
Choo, I really dont know much about the setup as my friend just offered this to me today. Will get more info.
 

MonkeyF0cker

Mean People Suck
The problem with using Pinny dropdowns is you're not going to have numbers for most of the stuff you're betting. It will be out of range and you won't know the approximate value.
 

Saulty

EV ZEIN
True Pavy, thanks for the insight.
Lines don't win games. Players and coaches win games. So pick the team that has the greatest chance to cover the spread. You are betting $50 a game so getting the best line would have no significant effect to your bottom line. Now if you are betting $5000 a game getting the best line is important.
 
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