Stale line bookie take 2

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"People like you killing small business man economy going straight to hell "....from bookie

Might not be able to have him much longer.
 
what was the purpose of those teasers?
 
rito
what was the purpose of those teasers?
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He offers 10 pt teasers @-120. I used games that were borderline plays and games that had already moved 1-2 points so it was like teasing 12 points. I was going to ask for advice on teasers, but I just took some shots on my own. None of his games are BOXED so you can tease everything. Must be 3 team 10 pt.,teaser. Just cant tease both side and total on same game. Oh, and another interesting caveat; only can tease max of one total per teaser.
 
I don't think any of those legs are probably +ev at -120. What prices does he have on 6pt teasers?
 
what is the running record, mcballs?
 
rito
I don't think any of those legs are probably +ev at -120. What prices does he have on 6pt teasers?
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How would I determine values of a 10 pt teaser? I was just looking for more plays that I THOUGHT were +ev since it was actually greater than 10+ teaser on each. He only offers 10 pt teasers.
 
RayRay
what is the running record, mcballs?
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RR, I haven't tallied up results of what I have posted here nor have I tallied results of plays at "current lines."
These are my actual results YTD though.

Overall
89-68 56.69% in College Foot
29-23 55.77% in Pro foot
 
You need each leg of a 3 team 10pt er to win more than ~82% of the time to win at -120. Ties typically lose on 10pters too. 5dimes only charges -110 on these so -120 isn't anything special.

So if the original bet was 50/50 you need those 10 extra pts to matter more than 82% of the time, which on totals I doubt it ever does. Any extra pts you are getting from the stale lines is probably better used just straight betting them. The teaser wont increase the ev, it might lessen it though.

On sides you could probably finds some way to take advantage of stale lines with teasers. If say he has an NFL game at -6.5 and the market has moved to 7 or 7.5, I would imagine +3.5 would be a good leg. Or a -2.5 that has moved to 3 should be good going to +7.5 the other way.
 
rito
You need each leg of a 3 team 10pt er to win more than ~82% of the time to win at -120. Ties typically lose on 10pters too. 5dimes only charges -110 on these so -120 isn't anything special.

So if the original bet was 50/50 you need those 10 extra pts to matter more than 82% of the time, which on totals I doubt it ever does. Any extra pts you are getting from the stale lines is probably better used just straight betting them. The teaser wont increase the ev, it might lessen it though.

On sides you could probably finds some way to take advantage of stale lines with teasers. If say he has an NFL game at -6.5 and the market has moved to 7 or 7.5, I would imagine +3.5 would be a good leg. Or a -2.5 that has moved to 3 should be good going to +7.5 the other way.
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WOW. That's an eye opener. I knew that -120 was a bit higher than bovada as I compared the 2, just erroneously thought the extra pts would negate the extra juice. I must be more selective going forward on the teasers. Any teaser tools out there? I've been using half-point calculator in conjunction with pinny drop down for every one of my straight bets.
 
Guy is now making his own spreadsheet and giving us the lines on Friday from Covers.com. Here is what I have for today's lines.

NCAA_11_3_12.jpg
 
Army +7.5
Florida -17
Minnesota +12
Miami OH under 56
Tennessee under 70.5
Temple over 51
Oklahoma under 53
Cincinnati-4
 
12:20 and 1:00

NC State over 49.5
Arkansas under 64.5
Central Mich +3
 
3:30
Purdue under 51
Illinois +27.5
N Dame over 45.5
Tex SA +32
New Mexico +4
Teaser: Tex SA +42 Illinois +37.5 Mich St +11.5
 
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