Ok so I got in to this argument with roguescholar (Gambling Related)

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Patty
How many plays would have to be documented to debunk the theory that you can't win long term without beating the market no vig in a major market?
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I dont want to see plays. I want to see yachts and houses and fistfuls of cash. Because thats what you should have.
 
Maybe market disagrees = opening to closing, the line doesn't move in your favor?
 
Patty
How many plays would have to be documented to debunk the theory that you can't win long term without beating the market no vig in a major market?
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If you're betting all -110's ATS, you'd need to show a profit after 1118 plays for a 5% significance level, 2250 plays for a 1% significance level and 4095 plays for a 0.1% significance level.
 
durito
What do mean by when the market disagrees? you bet +130 and it closes +140? Or do you mean can you beat closing lines?

Closing lines arent perfectly efficient by any means. But you arent going to beat them with your methods. Learn how to model. Get really good at it.

But if you are betting at +130 and its closing at +140 you are definitely not going to win long term.
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How many times do people get the number?
 
5 star thread

We need more of these

No sarcasm
 
durito
What number?
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The number you are happy playing at? You gave an example of playing +130 when you could have had +140. what if your
Model was happy with +130? Not many people get the best number.
 
FairWarning
The number you are happy playing at? You gave an example of playing +130 when you could have had +140. what if your
Model was happy with +130? Not many people get the best number.
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question wasn't directed at me...

but I don't think the "model" had to be "happy" your pocket book does

but let's just say that you bet that same bet 10,000 times in 10,000 alternate universes..... and your underdog bet comes in about 43% of the time...


would you be happy with 43% winners at an avg of +130 dog

would you be happy with 43% winners at an avg of +140 dog

do the math
 
I think I bet the Indians ML way too early

but wasn't sure if i'd be able to bet them closer to game time...

do I let the bet ride? or do I add some more if it goes up 10-20 cents?
 
We are working on our model

 
I wish I had a model
 
Look who posted for the first time in 8 years !

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oh that's kinda interesting to bump this thread at a time like this. I still gotta think that Patty is right. There is nothing about any sports line that is by definition exact (as opposed to heads n tails on a coin) ...at least I hope not :thinking:
Also variance is ridiculously larger than one would think, ..on everything :ohmy:
 
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