Ok so I got in to this argument with roguescholar (Gambling Related)

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Patty

Patty

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We were discussing how we both feel on the subject of how efficient major markets are.(Closing number) He is under the assumption that is nearly impossible to win with a large sample of games without beating the closing markets no vig line in major markets.(I guess he talks to justin7 too much)

Although I understand in general this is not a bad idea but I am also not under the assumption that in all games that the closing line is efficient. I believe in certain games/situations doing your own homework you can find profitable angles and edges even at the closing number or sometimes even worse than the closer.

Obviously my methods usually mean i'm going to have less volume (Longer time to really get a big sample of thousands of bets)

So my question is... Is it really impossible for someone to find profitable situations/edges even when a major market disagrees? I probably won't you even if you say yes but anyway i'm eagerly waiting durito giving me shit.

Fire away

Love,
Patty
 
possible yes. If you're using superior methods, info not available to others.
 
Cougar Bait
I don't necessarily disagree with you, in theory.
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Ok so what you're saying is your tout business you're running every single pick you suggest your "Clients" make is a +ev bet according to the efficient market theory? I think not

Either you're contradicting yourself or you're knowingly lying to your customers about your ableness to help them make money.
 
According to Patty, yes.


Patty why do you want to argue with guys about things that can't be proven in a forum discussion?

Patty, just gamble pal. You're never gonna make a living from betting on sports.

Patty it's all bullshit pal.
 
What do mean by when the market disagrees? you bet +130 and it closes +140? Or do you mean can you beat closing lines?

Closing lines arent perfectly efficient by any means. But you arent going to beat them with your methods. Learn how to model. Get really good at it.

But if you are betting at +130 and its closing at +140 you are definitely not going to win long term.
 
here you go patty, take a small shot. they probably wont cancel it

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Don't matter, Potato's favorite team (Lions) will win by at least a FG.

They got that swag this year. They are THAT TEAM.

Like ILLINOIS football LY.

Just pick winners and you'll never go broke.

:pavy:
 
durito
What do mean by when the market disagrees? you bet +130 and it closes +140? Or do you mean can you beat closing lines?

Closing lines arent perfectly efficient by any means. But you arent going to beat them with your methods. Learn how to model. Get really good at it.

But if you are betting at +130 and its closing at +140 you are definitely not going to win long term.
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How many plays would have to be documented to debunk the theory that you can't win long term without beating the market no vig in a major market?
 
that would depend on how badly you're beating them, the odds, and the degree of certainty you want. If you can get up 100 units at even money, that would probably do it. :up:
 
Thanks for responses.

And reno I am not claiming to be a gambing genius I am just not a believer that value can't be found in a closing number in certain games/situations.
 
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