NBA 'my local team'

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Arizona. Suns play here. You knew that. I've watched almost every game they played in the last five years. And they have never been as soft, since Nash came to town, as they are now. They give up late DD leads like snow in the desert heat. "Very funny". Laughing all the way to the live betting window.

Fade them tonight against the Mavs. Mavs are battle tested in close games, and good as small dogs.
No Barbosa, and Hill questionable. Suns have been playing a lot of Lopez, Amundson, Clark. All hardworking, none very talented. Hill and Nash are reported as 'tired' for the last few weeks. Age starting to show.
TNT Suns trend: 0-18 SU.
DAL ML or DAL +2
 
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I may or may not have hated that 4th qtr.
 
I may or may not be sorry about that.

On the negative side, the game didn't follow the expected pattern of Phoenix building up a big lead somewhere along the way. They were behind almost the entire game, and never got to the 'desirable' place where they took the pedal off the metal.

On the positive side, the expected pattern never manifested... A middle at halftime was on the table; and live bettors waiting for a Suns lead never got a good buy-in point for the Mavs.

From my 'notes to self': A bet is not a prediction, but a decision based on a forecast, like the weather. The weather is predictable, yet flexible, so be flexible as well. Plan for the beach, but leave yourself a way out to the ski slopes.
 
I'd look forward to getting more Suns info from ya hear on all the games darky, the suns have always been a tough team for me to get a handle on. So many times I end up not playing a game involving them when I feel like i have a fairly strong play, because i've been burnt by them one way or the other over the years
 
Just a short update to keep the storyline for the team alive. The Suns came off that win over DAL, in which they never took a lead until late in the 4Q. They were never in a position to relax. That game against DAL gave us the early season, scrappy version of the Suns, when they didn't know yet who they were or what they could do, and fought for every inch.

Last night they played in HOU. Which team would show up? Would the momentum from the win carry over, or would they go right back to their old pattern? They were up 60-48 at halftime. Double digits, a long way to go, and no particular reason to play scrappy. Sure enough they blew the entire lead and were almost beaten by Aaron Brooks in the final seconds, who missed an open layup. Overtime. The Suns did win in OT 115-111.

So the old pattern is still there. That's good. Tonight they play without rest in New Orleans. Chris Paul is out (for a month, according to the latest news). Older players like Nash and Hill don't like these B2B's anymore, and it has shown. So I basically end up with too many loose ends. Injured superstar on one end, fatigue on the other. I'm leaning against the Suns here, but am filing this one under 'wait-and-see-until-halftime'. If I could bet the game live, I would bet against the Suns at any point before the 4Q where they had a DD lead. (that trend isn't likely to last, though. Like all playoff contenders the Suns will look to tighten things up in the final two months of the regular season).
 
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Suns tried hard to give up a DD lead again. Up by 15 pts after three quarters, they let New Orleans come back all the way to 98-100 with 1+ minute left. Hornets couldn't finish, but this has to be a dream for live bettors.

Phoenix has recently added a few new wrinkles on offense and defense with Lopez. Lopez cleaned up on the offensive boards, and with him and Amare on the floor at the same time the Hornets were completely outplayed in the paint. Nash just tossed it off to Amare who would fake a shot and toss it to the 7'2" Lopez under the basket. This inside danger opened up the floor for the outside shooters (Channing and Dudley). Hornets had no answer, and made most of their late comeback with Lopez sitting. I'm sure opponents will soon adjust to the new plays, but for now it's interesting to see the Suns developing Lopez. On defense Lopez is so tall that his presence forces players to change their shots.
 
durito
Are you still betting lots of 1st quarters?
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Actually, a favorite Suns trend of mine is back from the dead this season:

Play on Suns 1H after losing previous 2H; 15-6 for the season (8-4 home; 7-2 road)
 
Above 1H trend now 16-6 for season.

Suns have turned a corner and are playing good basketball right now. I think their interior defense, with Lopez, is surprising teams. Denver got almost nothing inside last night until late in the 4Q when the Suns, get this, had to bring their starters back in because the reserves continued to play at full intensity even with a 20 pt lead. With the starters, very relaxed, on the floor for the final few minutes Denver finally got some easy layups. Can the Suns keep this up? I have no idea. But it's good to see after all these years of soft defense in the desert.

Points allowed in L3 road games: 97, 100, 100 (before OT).
Points allowed in 3 road games before that: 124, 125, 125.

They basically shaved 25 pts off the opponents production...
 
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Dark Horse
Points allowed in L3 road games: 97, 100, 100 (before OT).
Points allowed in 3 road games before that: 124, 125, 125.

They basically shaved 25 pts off the opponents production...
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Good info!
 
Kind of a trippy game tonight for the Suns. Both teams on no rest. Possibly Amare's last game in Suns uniform. Nash/Dirk rivalry. And DAL with their new team, with Butler/Haywood, off a road loss and with plenty of chemistry issues to solve.

Suns have been playing tough on the road, and have been clicking.

1 unit, spread over:
PHX +160
PHX +4
 
On PHX 1H tomorrow. Off a 2H loss. See trend in post #26 and #27.
 
I don't believe this. PHX up 49-40 and totally dominating the Hawks. And somehow lose 1H 49-50. At 49-45 I'm thinking the Suns better call timeout to take the lead into halftime. Which of course they never do. I hate the NBA sometimes. Done posting plays here. It always seems to bring out sh*t like this.
 
lol

Ended the night pretty good. Man, I was pissed off by that. It took them about 2 minutes to end the half 0-10. Then they only allowed 30 pts in the 2H. Go figure.

01:55 [PHX 49-40] Hill 3pt Shot: Made (7 PTS) Assist: Nash (4 AST)
01:38 Nash Foul : Shooting (1 PF)
Bibby Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS) 01:38
[ATL 41-49]
Horford Substitution replaced by Pachulia 01:38
Bibby Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS) 01:38
[ATL 42-49]
01:24 Hill Jump Shot: Missed
Team Rebound 01:22
01:22 Richardson Foul : Personal (2 PF)
01:22 Stoudemire Substitution replaced by Amundson
Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS) 01:22
[ATL 43-49]
01:22 Richardson Substitution replaced by Dudley
Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS) 01:22
[ATL 44-49]
01:09 Nash Jump Shot: Missed
01:08 Nash Rebound (Off:1 Def:1)
01:06 Nash Jump Shot: Missed
Team Rebound 01:05
00:49.4 Lopez Foul : Shooting (1 PF)
Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS) 00:49.4
[ATL 45-49]
Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS) 00:49.4
[ATL 46-49]
00:39.9 Nash Turnover : Bad Pass (4 TO) Steal:Smith (2 ST)
Smith Slam Dunk Shot: Made (16 PTS) 00:37.0
[ATL 48-49]
00:23.9 Lopez Jump Shot: Missed
Pachulia Rebound (Off:0 Def:1) 00:21.9
Johnson Floating Jump shot: Made (13 PTS) 00:03.1
[ATL 50-49]
Pachulia Substitution replaced by Smith 00:02.4
00:02.4 Team Timeout : Short
Bibby Substitution replaced by West 00:02.4
00:02.4 Lopez Substitution replaced by Dragic
00:02.4 Amundson Substitution replaced by Frye
00:00.1 Nash Turnover : Bad Pass (5 TO) Steal:Johnson (1 ST)
End of 2nd Quarter
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The timing of the timeout ... :pballs: How about a minute earlier, when the Suns don't seem to realize they're in the penalty?

Right before this, another two turnovers.

03:04
[PHX 46-38] Lopez Dunk Shot: Made (10 PTS) Assist: Richardson (2 AST)
Crawford 3pt Shot: Missed 02:33
02:30 Lopez Rebound (Off:1 Def:3)
02:23 Nash Turnover : Bad Pass (3 TO) Steal:Bibby (2 ST)
02:18 Stoudemire Foul : Shooting (2 PF)
02:18 Team Timeout : Regular
Crawford Substitution replaced by Williams 02:18
Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS) 02:18
[ATL 39-46]
Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS) 02:18
[ATL 40-46]
02:06 Hill Turnover : Bad Pass (1 TO) Steal:Smith (1 ST)
Smith Dunk Shot: Missed 02:01
02:00 Richardson Rebound (Off:0 Def:3)
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Nash is tired. Olympic flame, all star game, back problem. He had three turnovers in final 2:30. Plus another by Hill. The only reason the Suns won this game is the scrappy play by the bench. This is by far the best bench Phoenix has had in the Nash years. Phoenix only allowed 80 pts.

But the in-game coaching is very poor. I'm not touching this team until Nash is fit again.
 
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