Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

I need way more plays. Ideally I would have 25+ plays a day.
 
yes way too small percentage of your bankroll is at play, more plays less sweat
 
Need to look into adding totals.
 
roguejuror
and the 1st 5 lines
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Good point. That would seem like the easiest one to implement actually, take bullpens mostly out of the equation. But I think they would be duplicates of the full game plays in the vast majority of cases.
 
So this is our trajectory so far. I had a few more winning plays that weren't posted on here, therein lies the discrepancy (sue me.)

I think I updated my WAR data at the bottom of the valley there. (Edit - yeah, April 14 is when I switched from pre-season projections to in-season updates.)

It's still way too early to draw any conclusions. But we do like the texture of the last coupla weeks, lol.

1714393611832.png
 
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YTD 99-99 +2.7u $1026.81

Monday April 29

WSH +120
SDP -110
ATL -148
OAK +114

Looks like this is it for today.
 
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The Marlins are essentially an auto fade when they're the favorite
 
Love the in-season WAR updates. Obviously with variance early season slump could have been exaggerated and current success could be exaggerated, but logically speaking, using current WAR should be a much better indicator than previous season (which of course is all we can go on early on before data is collected).
 
I updated again this morning. Every update is pretty significant, and yes the average delta with pre-season data is pretty wide. I should probably do like a lot of MLB guys do and skip the first 2 weeks next year.

Then again yeah, it could still all be random walk. There is always a strong urge to see patterns where there might not be any.
 
Matty
I updated again this morning. Every update is pretty significant, and yes the average delta with pre-season data is pretty wide. I should probably do like a lot of MLB guys do and skip the first 2 weeks next year.
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And Casper SHOULD avoid drama but ya'll are what you are and we love you all the same.
 
Matty
YTD 99-99 +2.7u $1026.81

Monday April 29

WSH +120
SDP -110
ATL -148
OAK +114
MIN -155
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Bump

Final card for today, with STL being postponed
 
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