Since some here might not have time to look into the breakdown of TB-NY series, I will give my amateur analysis.
As much as you think of TB's Vas brilliance in goal and their scoring capabilities, their positional FORECHECKING defense was off the charts the last 4 games of the series. Pavat in an interview after game 5 keep going to back to defense, defense, being the key to winning.
Watched every minute of every game and can't remember a single odd man rush (3-2, 2-1) by the Rangers after game 2. Vas had a few great saves last night but Stersterken stood on his his head! Easily TB could have had 4-5 goals. Though the Stamkos first goal probably was one of the easiest he faced.
TB's first line Stam, Kuch, and Pavat accounted for 23 of the 43 points (G+A) in the series. Though the last 4 games the other 3 lines were great in positioninal hockey both offensively and defensively. NY had absolutely nothing offensively the 1st two periods last night.
I believe TB just worn down the Rangers. Last 40 days and 20 intense games was too much for them though TB had to play their best to win series!
Look, don't know much about Colo other than they seemed to have breeze through first 3 rounds. More rest than TB but only have played 3 more playoffs games than Colo. Has Avalanche coach even said who's the starting goalie for game 1? That's the key for me in this series, we know what Vas brings to the table from past playoff experience but what about Colo goalies? I mean Colo's playoff run so far hasn't included many tense, close game moments so far?
Just seeing now at one site Ava -190 TB +165 to win series. Guess I might be unpleasantly surprised how good Colo is come Wednesday.