ChuteBoxe
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- Feb 3, 2010
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This is a card that from the outside in looks very easy. Maybe it's because you have 1 current champion, and 1 ex-champion fighting what looks like "no-name" fighters. I put no-name in quotes, because they are actually two very capable fighters. One of whom will pull the upset in Newark, NJ. You also have some very juicy numbers on the board, that if you aren't careful, will bite you. Anyways, let's break down some fights...
This is a line that I'm really not understanding the movement. Maybe I shouldn't phrase it that way, because I guess I can see why sharps are hitting St. Pierre by 5 round distance. They feel he's going to lay on hardy, oppose his will through his wrestling, try to smother his opponent a la Randy Couture, and drag the championship fight out.
I'm sorry, but I just don't see it that way. GSP came out this week, and said to Fanhouse, that he's been training like Dan Hardy is the number 1 fighter in the world, and that's because Dan is. While I don't really believe the whole number 1 fighter in the world theory, he's still the #1 contender, and not a man to be taken lightly. GSP knows this.
Hardy changed camps for this fight, and is training with Matt "The Terror" Serra. Some of you know him from The Ultimate Fighter TV show, and his recent feud with Matt Hughes, but true MMA veterans know him as the guy from Long Island that knocked out Georges St. Pierre. Obviously Hardy is bringing the same strategy to the table, GSP knows this, and it actually motivated him to train harder. We'll see this Saturday if the head games blow up for hardy.
Dan Hardy has heavy hands, and swings for the fences. While I don't think he has more than a "puncher's chance" at winning this fight, anyone can get lucky. That's why it's a fight.
I would not lay the big number at all, even though I think GSP is light years ahead of Hardy as an MMA fighter. I just can't justify it. Not even in parlays. A way better way to play this fight, IMO, is by either taking GSP by decision, or GSP inside the distance.
I'm not knocking any of my friends in Vegas who took GSP by decision, so when you read this, don't blow up my phone. I will probably be enjoying my cocktail sitting ringside by then. However, I just can't see Hardy getting through 25 minutes of GSP, and not making a mistake. He has to be flawless, and have the best cardio ever. We have seen Dan get through a five round fight twice in his career. One was a loss to Forrest Petz, and the other was a close split decision against Matt Thorpe. I might be slightly exaggerating, but you could probably put GSP in a cage Tonight with both Petz and Thorpe, at the same time, and he'd probably still walk out of the cage with his hand held high.
GSP *Inside the distance* (-285) for 3 Units
Where do I begin? Let's start with the fact, that Frank Mir is the ex UFC heavyweight champion, has fought top notch talent in 17 career MMA fights, beat Sylvia, Lesnar, Nogueira, and Cheick Kongo. His last loss, besides the rematch to Brock Lesnar, was in 2006! Frank Mir is no joke. Also, as evidence from the weigh-in, Mir has come to New Jersey to fight! He's in the best shape that I've probably ever seen him. Mir has been known throughout his career, as the lazy fighter with a ton of talent. He looked like he got it in for this fight though.
On the other hand, Shane Carwin was a two-time NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-Up Heavyweight in 1996-97 and the NCAA II Wrestling Heavyweight National Champion in 1999. He was also a two-time All-American in football for Western State. He was the Heavyweight Champion for the Ring of Fire promotion before making it to the big show.
Shane is 11-0 in his MMA career. No opponent has ever made it past the first round. He is a brock style fighter. He pushes the pace, will oppose his will on his opponents using his wrestling skills, and has fast and heavy hands. He is the one of two fighters in the UFC to use 4XL gloves. The other? Brock. Who beat Mir easily last time out? Brock. Get where I'm going here? Mir himself even admitted that Carwin is a "better" version of Brock. To which Lesnar responded, "If Shane Carwin is a better version of myself, then the fight is over in the first 30 seconds."
Also, let's take a look at the odds. You're making me lay 8-1 in the one title fight (GSP/Hardy), a veteran versus a basic "no name", same basic scenario (quick, heavy hands), yet Frank Mir is only -150?
Shane Carwin (+130) risking 1 Unit
Carwin by 1st round KO (+400) risking 0.5 Unit
In a fight that features two excellent grapplers, Jersey Boy Ricardo Almeida takes on Matt Brown. Most people will think this fight is boring, and the crowd may even boo. Technical MMA guys, and brazilian jiu jitsu students, will love this back and forth battle.
Almeida walks around as the bigger man, and this is his first cut to 170. He looked in great shape at the weigh-in, and I have no problem backing him in his first fight back in UFC after some time off, and even his first time at welterweight.
Matt Brown, while a very viable fighter, and definitely not someone to sleep on...has never fought anyone with Almeida's ground skills. For those of you that don't know, Ricardo is Frankie Edgar's BJJ coach down at Renzo Gracie Jiu Jitsu. His ground game is top notch, and I feel Matt Brown will be taken out by an early submission.
Ricardo Almeida (-150) for 1 Unit
VALUE PARLAY - 5Dimes (+157) risking 1 Unit
Pellegrino
Fitch
Miller
This is a line that I'm really not understanding the movement. Maybe I shouldn't phrase it that way, because I guess I can see why sharps are hitting St. Pierre by 5 round distance. They feel he's going to lay on hardy, oppose his will through his wrestling, try to smother his opponent a la Randy Couture, and drag the championship fight out.
I'm sorry, but I just don't see it that way. GSP came out this week, and said to Fanhouse, that he's been training like Dan Hardy is the number 1 fighter in the world, and that's because Dan is. While I don't really believe the whole number 1 fighter in the world theory, he's still the #1 contender, and not a man to be taken lightly. GSP knows this.
Hardy changed camps for this fight, and is training with Matt "The Terror" Serra. Some of you know him from The Ultimate Fighter TV show, and his recent feud with Matt Hughes, but true MMA veterans know him as the guy from Long Island that knocked out Georges St. Pierre. Obviously Hardy is bringing the same strategy to the table, GSP knows this, and it actually motivated him to train harder. We'll see this Saturday if the head games blow up for hardy.
Dan Hardy has heavy hands, and swings for the fences. While I don't think he has more than a "puncher's chance" at winning this fight, anyone can get lucky. That's why it's a fight.
I would not lay the big number at all, even though I think GSP is light years ahead of Hardy as an MMA fighter. I just can't justify it. Not even in parlays. A way better way to play this fight, IMO, is by either taking GSP by decision, or GSP inside the distance.
I'm not knocking any of my friends in Vegas who took GSP by decision, so when you read this, don't blow up my phone. I will probably be enjoying my cocktail sitting ringside by then. However, I just can't see Hardy getting through 25 minutes of GSP, and not making a mistake. He has to be flawless, and have the best cardio ever. We have seen Dan get through a five round fight twice in his career. One was a loss to Forrest Petz, and the other was a close split decision against Matt Thorpe. I might be slightly exaggerating, but you could probably put GSP in a cage Tonight with both Petz and Thorpe, at the same time, and he'd probably still walk out of the cage with his hand held high.
GSP *Inside the distance* (-285) for 3 Units
Where do I begin? Let's start with the fact, that Frank Mir is the ex UFC heavyweight champion, has fought top notch talent in 17 career MMA fights, beat Sylvia, Lesnar, Nogueira, and Cheick Kongo. His last loss, besides the rematch to Brock Lesnar, was in 2006! Frank Mir is no joke. Also, as evidence from the weigh-in, Mir has come to New Jersey to fight! He's in the best shape that I've probably ever seen him. Mir has been known throughout his career, as the lazy fighter with a ton of talent. He looked like he got it in for this fight though.
On the other hand, Shane Carwin was a two-time NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-Up Heavyweight in 1996-97 and the NCAA II Wrestling Heavyweight National Champion in 1999. He was also a two-time All-American in football for Western State. He was the Heavyweight Champion for the Ring of Fire promotion before making it to the big show.
Shane is 11-0 in his MMA career. No opponent has ever made it past the first round. He is a brock style fighter. He pushes the pace, will oppose his will on his opponents using his wrestling skills, and has fast and heavy hands. He is the one of two fighters in the UFC to use 4XL gloves. The other? Brock. Who beat Mir easily last time out? Brock. Get where I'm going here? Mir himself even admitted that Carwin is a "better" version of Brock. To which Lesnar responded, "If Shane Carwin is a better version of myself, then the fight is over in the first 30 seconds."
Also, let's take a look at the odds. You're making me lay 8-1 in the one title fight (GSP/Hardy), a veteran versus a basic "no name", same basic scenario (quick, heavy hands), yet Frank Mir is only -150?
Shane Carwin (+130) risking 1 Unit
Carwin by 1st round KO (+400) risking 0.5 Unit
In a fight that features two excellent grapplers, Jersey Boy Ricardo Almeida takes on Matt Brown. Most people will think this fight is boring, and the crowd may even boo. Technical MMA guys, and brazilian jiu jitsu students, will love this back and forth battle.
Almeida walks around as the bigger man, and this is his first cut to 170. He looked in great shape at the weigh-in, and I have no problem backing him in his first fight back in UFC after some time off, and even his first time at welterweight.
Matt Brown, while a very viable fighter, and definitely not someone to sleep on...has never fought anyone with Almeida's ground skills. For those of you that don't know, Ricardo is Frankie Edgar's BJJ coach down at Renzo Gracie Jiu Jitsu. His ground game is top notch, and I feel Matt Brown will be taken out by an early submission.
Ricardo Almeida (-150) for 1 Unit
VALUE PARLAY - 5Dimes (+157) risking 1 Unit
Pellegrino
Fitch
Miller
You goin to the fights then? Good job. Beware idiot muscle heads in swirly shirts. lol.
anic::muddy: