Baseball thread for the year

I am going to keep my baseball picks in this thread. I am glad NBA and NHL are both winding down for the season as I am excited to concentrate on fewer sports.

I am really busy with work and been on the road alot so I don't have much time today for write ups, hopefully it slows down over the next month.

I had an atrocious french open and barely broke even in the ncaa tourney and nba and nhl playoffs, not worth the time I spent on it. Going to be conservative the rest of the baseball year until football starts. All plays 1 unit unless listed otherwise

Ray +133 5dimes

cincy -134 5dimes

Giants -175 5dimes

Phillies -1.5 +120 5dimes

Braves +109 betjam
 
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Pineda hasnt looked too hot in his last 2 outings h against The Jays last game he gave up five earned runs in just 6 and third innings and looked even worse against the Angels before that giving up 7 runs in 5 innings , and gave up 5 runs in 6 innings against the Braves. He has had a good outing against the A's and the Nationals but pitching for the first time in Fenway is tough for a rookie.

I hate wagering on Wakefield but I am going to continue to fade the Mariners at every possible chance I get.

Laying -153 on on Wakefield is always tough , I actually got a better number last night but I am going to post the widely available line.

Red Sox -153 5dimes risk 3.06

I read this stat this morning,The Nationals are 3-12 in their last 15 games with umpire Tim Welke behind home plate and the Dodgers have won 13 of their last 16 games at home against the Nats I liked the matchup with billingsley and Marquis even before the home ump stats.

Dodgers -137 risk 2.74

I love Owings, a pitcher that can hit and they should shuffle some other pitchers in there today, decent value on the diamondbacks today.

Diamondbacks +121 risk 1

Some square picks but I like the pitching matchups especially with Ogando and Halladay on the mound and I have done well this year on these 1 run lines.

Phillies -1 -158 5dimes risk 3.16

Rangers -1 -144 5dimes risk 2.88
 
20-11 +9.66 units

Red sox -1.5 -130 5 dimes reduced line risk 2.6

I will be on the -1 run line on this as well.

Rangers -171 5dimes reduced line risk 1.71
 
Tons of heavy favorites today, its just a matter of trying to find out the right ones. In the past I would parlay these but parlays in the baseball have never been profitable for me in the long run.

Best bet on the board is the Home teams salami, I thought about laying the -7 runs but just playing it safe.

Home runs salami -270 5dimes risk 2.7

The Cardinals are basically in three-way tie in the Central and have the Reds knocking on the door as well. The Cardinals open a seven-game homestand and beating bad teams like the Astros are a must right now. They are 6-2 against Houston in their last 8 games and have utterly dominated Happ. Happ is 1-5 against St louis and has posted atrocious numbers against he Cardinals this year, a 7.62 road ERA and a 6.06 ERA overall in his three starts against the Cards.

Happ is not a bad lefty overall but looking at his road numbers, they are just poor, he is 1-6 and is posting a 7.62 ers on the road. I think this run line number would be alot higher if it werent for McClellans losing streak. Happ and Houston have already played against McClellan at Busch Stadium, a 4-2 loss on May 19. McClellan looked good in that game going 8 innings in the victory.

St Louis -1 -146 5dimes risk 2.92

White Sox have won Buehrle's last seven home starts and I love this number with him on the mound at home facing a guy starting pitching his second game int he Majors . Buehrle is 17-9 with a 3.22 lifetime ERA versus Detroit .

White Sox -137 5dimes risk 2.74

The Mariners are on a 15-game winless streak and its just really a joke right now. It really doesnt matter if they put Roy Halladay on the mound right now with this offense, but they send to the mound Jason Vargas to try and end the misery. Vargas is 0-3 with a 6.35 in his last three starts. also I read a fascinating on Vargas in yahoo today, Since 2009, Vargas is 15-13 with a 3.41 ERA in 48 games before the All star game, but is 3-13 with a 5.68 ERA in 29 outings after the break.

I will continue to fade the Mariners at every opportunity and today looks like a great one

Yankees -1 -163 5dimes risk 3.26


Phillies -1-188 5dimes risk 1.88
 
25-13 +13.78

I wrote this a week ago about Fister, "Fister is on the mound for Seattle and anyone with a 3-11 record but a 3.18 era and 1.17 whip certainly isnt getting much run support and might be worth a look, I have just watched Fister the last 2 years and I have not been real impressed even with an anemic Seattle offense behind him"

He is still 3-11 but his era is at 3.30 after a pretty poor showing against the Blue jays. Obviously pitching for the Mariners is no dream job but he is still struggling, he has been 0-6 with a 3.38 ERA over his last nine outings, and while he has never pitched in the Bronx he went 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA in 2009 against the Yankees and he has lost 20 of his last 24 road games. This is not a good night to start winning.

The Mariners, whose offense is just bad in every category really stinks it up against lefties, they are the worst in baseball this year going 8-19 facing lefties. Sabathias numbers of course are just incredible this year, and he has already faced Seattle this year in a 7-1 win at Seattle giving up one run over eight innings back in May. Keep in mind, Figgins may not be available today for the mariners as well as if this team needs any more bad news.

I see alot of posts on the boards about Seattle being "due", sure they are, so are the Washington Generals. The Mariners this year are a team for the ages, I will continue to fade them until I see them actually hit the ball. I doubt that will be happening.

I am pplaying the one run line because I want to enjoy watching this game without sweating some last inning run by the Mariners to cover the 1.5, I would normally never lay this on a one run line but the Mariners are a special team this year.

Yankees -1 -243 5 dimes risk 4.86

The Red Sox lost last night in extra innings but its been pretty rare for them at home lately. They have won seven of their last nine games and had a nine game home winning streak until last nights loss, but the Royals are pretty hot themselves these last few weeks winning five of their last six games. I am just fading a young pitched like Duffy having to pitch in Fenway for the first time and a Red sox team in a tight division race with the yankees.

I have liked Andrew Miller ever since he played with the marlins and he seems to be on his way to a fantastic year with the Red Sox.

Boston -1 -128 5imes risk 2.56

Rangers -1 -159 5dimes risk 3.18

Blue jays -1 -127 5dimes risk 2.54
 
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adding st louis -1 -123 5dimes risk 3.69
 
28-15 +15.06

Brewers -144 5dimes reduced line risk 1.44
 
Nice work (and even better results) gregm. I totally missed this thread, your write-ups will be front paged going forward.
 
29-15 +16.06

Blue Jays -151 (5dimes reduced line) risk 1.51
 
Thanks Rogie and Polaroid. I will try and post writeups when I can , probably a couple of times a week, I am going to be gone alot over the next few months with my dad trying to help him so I am going to be on the road alot but I love writing them when I can. You dont have to front page them( I am not sure what that means ,LOL), I would hate for anyone to tail and lose money, I just appreciate you guys stopping by and reading them.

Take care and have a great weekend

Brewers -1 -135 5dimes risk 1.35

Detroit -131 BetOnline risk 1.31

Red sox -1 -225 5dimes risk 4.50

St Louis -1 -137 5dimes risk 2.74

Blue jays -1 (waiting for 5dimes to release the numbers)

Throwing in a canadian football pick because I dont think that Canadian football thread is going anywhere.

Winnipeg -3 -105 5dimes risk 2.10
 
Gave back some today. Poor calls on my part on some of these. St. Louis is a tough division race needs to be teams like the Astros.The Brewers and Pitt won tonight, that race is basically a three way race to the finish. Cardinals cant afford to split a series with a team like the Astros.

They should get Berkman back facing the Cubs on Friday.

Beckett only had one truly bad inning, just a poor call on my part.

I am putting one unit down for -1 blue jays like the ml , I didn't get back here to update the odds

33-18 +12.51

going back to the well

cardinals -126 (5dimes reduced juice) risk 2.52

Jackson on the mound for the first time in St Louis, Cardinals in a tight division race, I am hoping Berkman is back.The Cubs are still the Cubs, poor offensively, I like the number tonight on the cards.
 
A play mainly on the line , I see this line ending up at -210 or -220 range at least. Guthries numbers against the Yankees are atrocious, Baltimore has been in california and toronto all week. I will be looking at the -1 run line when 5dimes releases it

Yankees -191 (5dimes reduced line ) risk 3 units
 
Tigers -139 5dimes risk 2.78 5dimes

yankees -1 -153 risk 1.53 5dimes

O9.5 yankees/Balt. -115 risk 1.15 betonline


Mets -118 risk 1.18 betonline
 
36-21 +11.83

Texas Rangers -114 (5dimes reduced juice) risk 2.28

Rangers/Blue jays O.9.5 -103 (5dimes reduced juice) risk 1.03

Brewers -1.5 -115 (5dimes reduced juice) risk 2.30
 
The Nationals are playing bad ball lately, they have now lost six in a row and eight of their past nine games. Playing at home certainly hasnt helped as the Nationals winning only once in their last seven home games. They send Jason Marquis to the mound to face the Mets, and while Marquis has actually one of the most profitable pitchers against the spread this year, he has struggled over the last few months. Marquis is 1-3, 6.15 in his last five starts and at home he 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA in since May 31.

Marquis's numbers are not bad, has a BAA of .283 and a borderline WHIP of 1.42 but his last five starts have not been promising. The Mets are red hot, winning five in a row and sending a knuckler ,Dickey, who has pitched pretty well this year going 5-8 and putting up a 3.74 ERA. He looked good in his last start at Washington on April 27, giving up two runs in 6 2-3 innings before leaving without a decision in a 6-3 victory.

Mets -105 Risk 1.05 Betonline

The Angels sending Dan Haren against a rookie .

Angels -117 betonline risk 1.17

Brewers won seven of their last eight home games and the Astros lost 15 of their last 19 road games and seem to be a team with no future. They trade away their best players, have one of the poorest farms systems in the majors. A dreadful team

Gallardo is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple home starts

I posted this last night and is my favorite play for the day

Brewers -1.5 -115 (5dimes reduced juice) risk 2.30


St Louis cardinals -1 -129 risk 2.58 5dimes[/B]
 
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Leake and Bumgarner have been putting up good numbers lately, the Giants have won last six Bumgarner starts (3-0, 2.57). and Leake is putting up a 2.19 ERA but has been getting no run support and lost his last 2 games. The under is 5-2-1 in last eight games where Carapazza has been behind the plate

Under 8.5 Reds/Giants -120 bookmaker risk 2.4
 
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