The Polaroid Random Thoughts Baseball Thread

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A couple of injuries last night - Strider and Luis Robert Jr, neither looked good.
 
So the eclipse is coming on April 8th and Tron's plays start on April 10th. F the eclispe!
 
The Marlins pitching staff allows the 3rd lowest exit velocity in MLB.

Regression to the mean is coming take note bettors.
 
Shane Bieber. What a start to the season. See you in August of 2025 now.
 
FairWarning
Steven Strasberg has officially retired. After signing his $245 mil contract, he threw 530 pitches, roughly $462k/pitch.
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He also had a 1.46 ERA in 6 playoff starts in 2019.
 
Ok, so as of the latest Steamer update at FanGraphs:

Sixto Sanchez is worth 0.3 WAR
Declan Cronin is -0.3
Burch Smith -0.1
Calvin Faucher is 0.1

I have the full game as a +/-120 matchup after adjusting lineups and Colorado's ineptitude on the road. Marlins are the fave. But that's assuming a 5.2 inning effort from both starters and 3.1 innings from each bullpen. If you give a couple innings to each Marlin, the line moves towards Colorado by about 3 cents.

The first 5 matchup with Sixto being the only pitcher used is a coin flip (EV). With an even mix of the same four guys, Marlins become a +108 dog.

Miami's overall bullpen is stronger than Colorado's. Marlins usual closer and setup guys (Scott and Nardi) are worth a combined 0.7 WAR to Colorado's 0.2. And like I said earlier, most short relief guys are worth right around 0.

Right now I'm seeing -140/+120 for the full game which is a no-bet for me, but with a strong lean towards Colorado.

Now, I'm seeing -145/+115 for the first five, so COL 1st 5 is an official play. :handshake:
 
Obviously, this isn't super precise because we have no real idea who's going to pitch for how long. And WAR's weakness is that it favors traditional starters. But pitching is just one piece of the puzzle, and with the odds being quite favorable on the 1st five inning matchup, I really like my odds on having an edge on that +115. How big of an edge that might be, I haven't a clue. I'll only be able to retroactively compute a average edge after making thousands of plays. :handshake:
 
Mike Trout again injured thinking it was sliding into second base?

Seen stat averaging 63 games played for last 5 years. :((
 
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