Hooligans Sportsbook

TB Rays ML Apears to be a Play Tonight

  • Start date
  • Replies
    61 Replies •
  • Views 4,235 Views

MrMonkey

USA! USA!! USA!!!
Since
Jan 28, 2010
Messages
24,407
Score
2,444
Tokens
50
Line opened up at -150/+130 with Boston being the fav. ML and RL both swinging in the Red Sox direction big time from the start! Going by the hitting numbers as of late together with the whole year no reason why they shouldn't be.

Last 10 games the Sox have scored with 65 runs to go along with 21 HR. With a .579 SLG% to boot. Very unreal numbers indeed! The Rays during that period have plated 50 runs with 12 HR with a .453 SLG%. Not too shabby in itself.

So how do I see the Rays winning lies with the situational pitching matchup and Rays more wanting this game! They play 162 of them but this one Tampa Bay I believe wants badly!

If you look at the starters for the year Boston's Josh Beckett has unreal numbers of allowing only 72 hits over 111 inn while only giving up 7 HR with a 2.27 ERA and a .95 WHIP On the other hand Jeff Niemann of the Rays has has only 53 inn under his belt while allowing 62 hits and also 7 HR. Along with this his ERA is 4.50 to go along with a .142 WHIP.

But one reason (of 2) I'm seeing value in the Rays tonight is going to fangraphs.com to further evalulate the starters numbers. From my view I see Beckett not as great and Niiemann not being as bad as the basic numbers appear.

Beckett has a remarkable .225 BABIP and 82.2% strand on base avg. His xFIP is 3.71 and close to the 3.86 for 2010 when he had a dismal over 5.5 ERA. These numbers from what from I know can't be sustained over time from pure baseball stat people. Niemann on the other hand has a xFIP of 4.21 which is more or less what he is.

The other reason I like TB tonight is the situational moment of the pitching matchup. Niemann has been hurt half the year but since coming back in the last 4 games has pitched well in 3 games giving up only 2 runs! Beckett has been 10+ all year but only went 5 inn in his last start cause of a hyperextended knee and had to throw Friday on the side to make sure he could pitch tonight. Beckett did 1 hit the Rays just last month.

In conclusion as powerful as the Red Sox lineup can be looking for TB to get to Beckett enough to win. Madden a quality manager and hopefully get guys up tonight to perform.

TB Rays ML

Appears to be a Play Record 1-1
 
Line opened up at -150/+130 with Boston being the fav. ML and RL both swinging in the Red Sox direction big time from the start!

line move went the other way. Tampa Bay got the action, with line dropped from -140 to -145 range to -130 to -135 range

home teams and under seem to do very well on sunday nights.

last year it was home team and over
 
I posted at 6:52 PM

07/17 05:36 PM -132 +124
07/17 05:33 PM -131 +123
07/17 05:05 PM -132 +124
07/17 01:59 PM -131 +123
07/17 01:26 PM -133 +125
07/17 01:25 PM -136 +128
07/17 11:58 AM -137 +129
07/17 11:37 AM -138 +130
07/17 11:03 AM -137 +129
07/17 10:57 AM -141 +133
07/17 10:57 AM -140 +132
07/17 06:59 AM -141 +133
07/17 06:38 AM -140 +132


Notice the direction the line was moving. After I posted, it moved several cents back and now it's -135