Stephen Strasburg First Start At 7pm EST

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Just under a year after being taken as the #1 pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, Stephen Strasburg will make his Washington Nationals debut Tuesday when they take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at Nationals Park. After being drafted on June 9 last year and subsequently signing a record $15.1 million contract as a draftee Strasburg is arguably the most anticipated rookie pitcher since Mark Prior, awarded what was then a record $10.5 million contract in the 2001 MLB Draft, so maybe it's best not to get too carried away just yet.

The Nationals enter Tuesday with a 27-31 record, identical to their Pythagorean Record, putting them in the cellar of the National League East and 6 games back in the Division and 7 games back in the race for the Wild Card so the addition of Strasburg would be some welcome relief although it will take more than one star pitcher every five games to make a difference for the Nationals in 2010.

Livan Herandez is the current ace of the pitching staff, and surely this is the first time he has ever been described as such since the days of the Montreal Expos, who is sporting a 4-3 record after 11 starts with a miniscule 2.22 ERA. However, all is not what it seems from those statistics which masks how badly he has been pitching in reality. Although he is 7th in ERA of the 149 starting pitchers in the majors with 30+ innings he ranks 113th in xFIP suggesting that he he going to revert to the mean sooner rather than later and his ZiPS forecast predicting him going 4-9 for the remainder of the season with a 4.91 ERA. It seems like the Nationals might need about x3 Stephen Strasburgs to be a contender in 2010.

On the basis that if there's something going on in the sports world a sportsbook will offer a line on it, Pinnacle have stepped up to the plate and offered a number of props on Strasburg's debut. If you prefer the more traditional offerings then the Nationals are listed at -200 favorites, +110 on the runline and the O/U is set at 8.5.

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Wash coming in @ -200. Does the star get shell shocked?
 
I played the under 5.5 strikeouts. Just a small .5 unit play. The way they have limited his pitches and innings, I don't see him going more than 5-6 innings.
 
I was just about to post that Under 5.5 strikeouts looks good.
 
I played the under 5.5 strikeouts. Just a small .5 unit play. The way they have limited his pitches and innings, I don't see him going more than 5-6 innings.

Oops mean to say, I will play this when a book I have money in offers it. Hopefully I can get a line near +133


Bodog is +105 :sad: But you cannot bet it right now anyways.
 
The way they have limited his pitches and innings, I don't see him going more than 5-6 innings.

I've not checked his pitch counts in the minors but assuming that the line is efficient, which should be accurate although it is debatable in what is a pop culture prop market scenario here, he'll be at 90 pitches for the game. With that pitch count against the might of the Pirates, he might last 13 innings.
 
-200 seems kinda high...

I know he's supposed to be the shiznit, but if he goes 5 or even 6 that gives the Pirates 1/3 of the game to put up runs.

Anyone thinking of going the other way here? I will likely lay off but just wondered what your thoughts were.
 
Now that my books are offering the strikeout total, it is at +105 so I am passing. I wanted the +133
 
I read that he is going to be on a pitch count of 90. There is no way I would lay -200+, and have to deal with the Nats bullpen for maybe 4 innings.
 
1-2-3 1st inning. Hit 99 on the gun. His curveball is just sick. Made Lastings Milledge look foolish.
 
Phew, lucked out on run in 1st props.
 
Glad I didn't bet under 5.5 K's. He has 4 after two innings.
 
Can't run, though.