gregm
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Obama 68.0% intrade
Silvers model pretty much the same as it has been all summer
Obama -363 pinnacle
Shaping up as Obama wins re-election, Democrats keep control of the Senate, and Republicans stay in power in the House. We will see, some very different numbers from polls and perceptions out there. Should be interesting to watch how intrade and silvers model perform. Intrade has been impressive over the last two elections. In 2004, intrade users picked the winner of every single state and only missed two states in the 2008 election. Silver’s model missed only one state in Obama’s 2010 victory, and it correctly predicted every Senate race.
Conservative cable news host Joe Scarborough criticized Silver "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes," he said.
Nate Silver responded
@fivethirtyeight
.@JoeNBC: "If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal? "
Dick Morris predicts Romney will win in a landslide. “This is not going to be a close election,” said Morris, a New York Times best-selling author and a Fox News political analyst. “This is not going to keep you up all night.”
Some more criticism of Silver in a great article in deadspin http://updates.deadspin.com/post/34780905169/nate-silvers-braying-idiot-detractors-show-that-being
David Brooks criticized Silver
from deadspin
"If there’s one thing we know, it’s that even experts with fancy computer models are terrible at predicting human behavior. Financial firms with zillions of dollars have spent decades trying to create models that will help them pick stocks, and they have gloriously failed."
"Brooks’s criticism was general, against his own impulse to put each individual poll under a microscope. But other detractors are focusing on Silver himself, particularly conservative writers and pundits who refuse to accept that Mitt Romney’s election is unlikely. The most laughable of these is Dean Chambers, who forecasts the election on UnSkewed Polls by adjusting each poll so that Romney is in the lead. Chambers thinks that Silver’s slight stature is evidence of his bias:"
"Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice"
Sam Wang, a biophysicist and neuroscientist, runs Princeton Election Consortium. Wang’s model nailed the electoral vote count in 2004, and missed it in 2008 by just one, making his track record even better than Silver’s. Wang’s forecasting Obama’s re-election chances at 98 percent
Dick Morris, conservative pollsters and pundits or Nate Silver, Sabermetrics nerd, and the modelers? I am going with Silver
Silvers model pretty much the same as it has been all summer
Obama -363 pinnacle
Shaping up as Obama wins re-election, Democrats keep control of the Senate, and Republicans stay in power in the House. We will see, some very different numbers from polls and perceptions out there. Should be interesting to watch how intrade and silvers model perform. Intrade has been impressive over the last two elections. In 2004, intrade users picked the winner of every single state and only missed two states in the 2008 election. Silver’s model missed only one state in Obama’s 2010 victory, and it correctly predicted every Senate race.
Conservative cable news host Joe Scarborough criticized Silver "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes," he said.
Nate Silver responded
@fivethirtyeight
.@JoeNBC: "If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal? "
Dick Morris predicts Romney will win in a landslide. “This is not going to be a close election,” said Morris, a New York Times best-selling author and a Fox News political analyst. “This is not going to keep you up all night.”
Some more criticism of Silver in a great article in deadspin http://updates.deadspin.com/post/34780905169/nate-silvers-braying-idiot-detractors-show-that-being
David Brooks criticized Silver
from deadspin
"If there’s one thing we know, it’s that even experts with fancy computer models are terrible at predicting human behavior. Financial firms with zillions of dollars have spent decades trying to create models that will help them pick stocks, and they have gloriously failed."
"Brooks’s criticism was general, against his own impulse to put each individual poll under a microscope. But other detractors are focusing on Silver himself, particularly conservative writers and pundits who refuse to accept that Mitt Romney’s election is unlikely. The most laughable of these is Dean Chambers, who forecasts the election on UnSkewed Polls by adjusting each poll so that Romney is in the lead. Chambers thinks that Silver’s slight stature is evidence of his bias:"
"Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice"
Sam Wang, a biophysicist and neuroscientist, runs Princeton Election Consortium. Wang’s model nailed the electoral vote count in 2004, and missed it in 2008 by just one, making his track record even better than Silver’s. Wang’s forecasting Obama’s re-election chances at 98 percent
Dick Morris, conservative pollsters and pundits or Nate Silver, Sabermetrics nerd, and the modelers? I am going with Silver
