Obamas numbers and Intrade

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gregm
Been reading a little more on intrade past few days, definitely has liquidity issues it seems but pretty good barometer for where these numbers will end up. There are so many interesting derivative ideas out there beyond election ones, this idea about offering film contracts is great.

I just wish Cantor could have taken that hollywood exchange beyond just a virtual futures market and get some real futures contracts on these films.

I would love to short some of these dismal hollywood blockbusters. This summer! More crap!

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H$31.57 H$0.40 (1.25%)

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H31.57
CHANGE TODAYCURRENT VALUE

Shares Held Long on HSX: 293,612,009

Shares Held Short on HSX: 9,147,758
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I wouldn't underestimate the stupidity of the consumer.
 
MonkeyF0cker
I wouldn't underestimate the stupidity of the consumer.
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LOL. Very true. Its actually up on the exchange, Thats my Boy grossed 20.5 million in its opening weekend. This stuff could make you physically ill. Jackass 4 Bad Grandpa and Pirates of the caribbean 5 is down in futures trading though.

One thing I was glad to hear is there is going to be a Blade Runner 2 . I juts hope its not atrocious, but they do have Ridley Scott returning to direct it. I do think this could be a tough way to make money if they ever legalize trading in movies futures. You might like a film and think its intelligent and well done and put your money on it and short Gigli 2 and the bad film grosses 50 million at the box office. Pork bellies or cotton is probably safer in the long run than shorting Adam Sandler.

I read an older article on hollywoods opposition to Cantor, sort of like hollywood and Sopa. Hollywood is just so shady about these films they try to make blockbusters and any sort of financial transparency.

shorting tinseltown

http://nymag.com/movies/theindustry/67275/
 
Obama 49% Romnney 40% in the new fox poll, Obama seems to be winning the independent vote. Any sort of jumps should be after the convention, romney to win presidency sitting at 3.82(38.2% chance to win election) a share. Some pretty interesting markets on Assad remaining president after 2012, marijuana initiatives in colorado,washington and oregon,and portman getting the vice presidency nomination.

On HSX the campaign is at $70 a share, pretty funny movie. They dont have bollywood or asian films on hsx , a friend of mine from India here in the states wants to do a web site for Indian films and bollywood and asian films. We just saw Jism2. LOL, rhymes with kiss him. Usually any film is good if you have good indian food and cold beer, samosa and stella artois at the galaxy, but this one wasnt. Wished I would have gone to a documentary. Jism2 started riots in india , either over the eroticism or just how bad it was. Riots in Hollywood next ? http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/review/jism-2-sunny-leone-pooja-bhatt-bollywood-360095

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sunny leone

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Bollywood casting couch


 
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Once the debates start Romney would sink even more. Guy thinks he is Ronald Reagan and he will win just by his looks.
 
If I had the money to tie up, I would hit Repubs +160 at pinny right now. I would be shocked if it didn't move way down at some point in the next month.
 
If Ryan is the pick for VP, he will smoke Biden in the debates.
 
Yea lot of people watch the VP debate.

If Ryan's budget gets passed US will start to resemble a Latin American country. That would be pretty cool.
 
are the # likely to go up for the given party right after their conventions? Seems like the polls always do but how about the line?
 
reno cool
are the # likely to go up for the given party right after their conventions? Seems like the polls always do but how about the line?
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from gambling perspective the best time to bet Obama would be at the end of the GOP convention. Obama went as high as -120 the last election in September and by election day he was -200.
 
reno cool
are the # likely to go up for the given party right after their conventions? Seems like the polls always do but how about the line?
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yes. if i had the money to tie up i would grab repub 160 right now. them grab dem after rep conven
 
durito
If I had the money to tie up, I would hit Repubs +160 at pinny right now. I would be shocked if it didn't move way down at some point in the next month.
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Already moved way down. -161/148
 
durito you will be a 1%

we got to launch your political career
 
Durito will legalize gambling in the US when we elect him.
 
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