NFL Teasers Week 3

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djiddish98

djiddish98

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Since I realized the errors of taking a 2 teamer at -110 when a 3 teamer at +180 is available, I'll be sticking to the 3 teamers from now on.

As it stands now, I like the following teams in a tease:

Jags +3
Cowboys +3
Jets +2
Chiefs +3
Buccs +3

most of these are of the +6.5 tease variety, with a few +6 depending on the combo.

Any insights from the crowds?
 
No insights, but please let me know your final plays. Thanks and good luck!
 
Plan is to bet all of these, although things might change by tomorrow. Sorted by Edge, and using a .25 kelly multiplier.

Edit: God the formatting is ugly.

PHP: 
Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys	New York Jets	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	6.5
Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	Chicago Bears	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys	6
Tennessee Titans	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Dallas Cowboys	New York Jets	6.5
Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	Seattle Seahawks	6
Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	Chicago Bears	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	Chicago Bears	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets	6.5
Tennessee Titans	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	6.5
Tennessee Titans	Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Dallas Cowboys	New York Jets	Chicago Bears	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys	Chicago Bears	6
Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	Seattle Seahawks	6
Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Jacksonville Jaguars	Seattle Seahawks	New York Jets	6
Tennessee Titans	Dallas Cowboys	New York Jets	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jacksonville Jaguars	Chicago Bears	6
Tennessee Titans	Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys	6
Minnesota Vikings	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys	Seattle Seahawks	6
Tennessee Titans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Dallas Cowboys	Seattle Seahawks	New York Jets	6
Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams	Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Dallas Cowboys	Chicago Bears	6
Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	Denver Broncos	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jacksonville Jaguars	Seattle Seahawks	6
Minnesota Vikings	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets	Chicago Bears	6.5
Tennessee Titans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Dallas Cowboys	6
St. Louis Rams	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	6.5
Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5
Carolina Panthers	Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Carolina Panthers	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	6
Tennessee Titans	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Dallas Cowboys	Seattle Seahawks	6
Atlanta Falcons	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	6.5
Minnesota Vikings	Dallas Cowboys	New York Jets	6.5
Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams	New York Jets	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	Minnesota Vikings	Jacksonville Jaguars	6
Carolina Panthers	Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys	6
Kansas City Chiefs	Seattle Seahawks	New York Jets	6
Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	New York Jets	6
Kansas City Chiefs	St. Louis Rams	Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	New York Jets	Chicago Bears	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Kansas City Chiefs	Chicago Bears	6
Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	New York Jets	6.5
Tennessee Titans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	New York Jets	6.5
Atlanta Falcons	Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	St. Louis Rams	Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	Minnesota Vikings	New York Jets	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	St. Louis Rams	New York Jets	6.5
Atlanta Falcons	Kansas City Chiefs	Dallas Cowboys	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams	6.5
Atlanta Falcons	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets	6.5
New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Minnesota Vikings	New York Jets	6.5
Tennessee Titans	New York Jets	Chicago Bears	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	St. Louis Rams	New York Jets	6.5
Dallas Cowboys	Jacksonville Jaguars	Green Bay Packers	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	6.5
New York Giants	Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	New York Jets	Green Bay Packers	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	New York Jets	6.5
St. Louis Rams	Jacksonville Jaguars	Chicago Bears	6.5
New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys	New York Jets	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Kansas City Chiefs	St. Louis Rams	6.5
Tennessee Titans	St. Louis Rams	Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5
New York Giants	Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5
Atlanta Falcons	Jacksonville Jaguars	Chicago Bears	6.5
Dallas Cowboys	New York Jets	Green Bay Packers	6.5
Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams	Chicago Bears	6.5
Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville Jaguars	Green Bay Packers	6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	Kansas City Chiefs	6.5

Based off of these spreads

Code: 
Team	Spread
Tennessee Titans	3
New York Giants	-3
Buffalo Bills	14.5
New England Patriots	-14.5
Cleveland Browns	10.5
Baltimore Ravens	-10.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	-3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3
Cincinnati Bengals	-3.5
Carolina Panthers	3.5
Atlanta Falcons	4
New Orleans Saints	-4
San Francisco 49ers	-3
Kansas City Chiefs	3
Detroit Lions	11
Minnesota Vikings	-11
Dallas Cowboys	3
Houston Texans	-3
Washington Redskins	-4
St. Louis Rams	4
Philadelphia Eagles	-3
Jacksonville Jaguars	3
Indianapolis Colts	-6
Denver Broncos	6
San Diego Chargers	-6
Seattle Seahawks	6
Oakland Raiders	4.5
Arizona Cardinals	-4.5
New York Jets	2
Miami Dolphins	-2
Green Bay Packers	-3
Chicago Bears	3
 
DJ, I know it's the NFL and nothing is as it seems from one week to the next and I know Dallas is supposed to be so great but I wouldn't have them in consideration for anything, and they are my team.

The way the Bucs have looked the first 2 weeks they look solid to tease especially since the quarterback situation in Pitt is suspect at best.
You would think the Jet's are in a good situation for teasing as well but who knows.
I do like the Chiefs chances from a defensive standpoint their only real issue's are on the offensive side of the ball.

I just realized I have been absolutely no help here. I just had never posted to you and wanted to break the ice.
 
holy fukkin shit...how many teasers is that?
 
wal66
DJ, I know it's the NFL and nothing is as it seems from one week to the next and I know Dallas is supposed to be so great but I wouldn't have them in consideration for anything, and they are my team.

The way the Bucs have looked the first 2 weeks they look solid to tease especially since the quarterback situation in Pitt is suspect at best.
You would think the Jet's are in a good situation for teasing as well but who knows.
I do like the Chiefs chances from a defensive standpoint their only real issue's are on the offensive side of the ball.

I just realized I have been absolutely no help here. I just had never posted to you and wanted to break the ice.
Click to expand...

As an aside, zero handicapping has gone into these tease considerations. I'm assuming the market has correctly valued each team at this point in time.

The reason I like these plays is due to the push %s they cross with the tease.
 
Is each line a teaser that you are going to play?

For example...

Kansas City Chiefs Dallas Cowboys Jacksonville Jaguars 6

Is one 3 teamer and

Dallas Cowboys Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets 6.5

is another? And so on?
 
I'm going to put my entire (small) bankroll on the line with this. Because I'm using a .25 multiplier, I can make more bets.

However, it might make sense to go with a .5 multiplier and reduce the number of teases. I haven't thought about this enough (I am pretty risk averse)
 
Oh man I sense HUGE things for us DJ Yiddish!! HUGE!!!
 
Bread
Is each line a teaser that you are going to play?

For example...

Kansas City Chiefs Dallas Cowboys Jacksonville Jaguars 6

Is one 3 teamer and

Dallas Cowboys Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets 6.5

is another? And so on?
Click to expand...

Yes - the 6.5 and 6 are number of points teased.

Hopefully someone can come in and show me an error before I pull the trigger (tomorrow night).
 
Here's some more info. Keep in mind that I'm not flat betting all these. Some I like a lot more than others.

Again, apologies for the bad formatting.

I have not taken into account Totals or Push prob decay, although based on my limited research and what pinnacle is telling me, these factors aren't THAAT important as long as you aren't teasing major points (like 10).

Re: Push prob decay - since I can't confirm what pinnacle thinks about push decay going from -3 to +3.5 (for example), I can only go off of how they treat a ML compared to a spread of -6.5.

Code: 
TeamA	ProbA	Team B	ProbB	Team C	ProbC	Tease Type	Prob	Odds	Edge	Kelly
Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	45.91%	160	19.36%	2.97%
Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	45.44%	160	18.15%	2.78%
Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	45.23%	160	17.59%	3%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	45.10%	160	17.27%	2.65%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	44.89%	160	16.72%	2.57%
Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5	44.56%	160	15.85%	2.43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	44.44%	160	15.53%	2.39%
Tennessee Titans	74.64%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	44.43%	160	15.53%	2.39%
Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	New York Jets	76.84%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5	44.35%	160	15.31%	2.35%
Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	42.65%	180	19.43%	2.63%
Tennessee Titans	74.64%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	44.23%	160	14.99%	2.30%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	42.33%	180	18.52%	2.51%
Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	6.5	44.03%	160	14.48%	2.23%
Minnesota Vikings	73.75%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.90%	160	14.15%	2.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	New York Jets	76.84%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5	43.90%	160	14.14%	2.17%
St. Louis Rams	73.70%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.88%	160	14.08%	2.17%
Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	6.5	43.86%	160	14.03%	2.16%
Tennessee Titans	74.64%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.78%	160	13.82%	2.13%
Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.70%	160	13.63%	2.10%
Minnesota Vikings	73.75%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.70%	160	13.61%	2.09%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	41.89%	180	17.29%	2.35%
Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.67%	160	13.54%	2.08%
Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6	41.80%	180	17.05%	2.31%
Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	6.5	43.58%	160	13.32%	2.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	New York Jets	76.84%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5	43.57%	160	13.29%	2.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	6	41.69%	180	16.73%	2.27%
Tennessee Titans	72.94%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	41.69%	180	16.72%	2.27%
Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.50%	160	13.10%	2.02%
Tennessee Titans	74.64%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.45%	160	12.98%	2.00%
Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	Seattle Seahawks	72.76%	6	41.58%	180	16.43%	2.23%
Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	6.5	43.41%	160	12.87%	1.98%
Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	6.5	43.38%	160	12.78%	1.97%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	6.5	43.26%	160	12.48%	1.92%
Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	Minnesota Vikings	73.75%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.25%	160	12.46%	1.92%
Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6	41.37%	180	15.84%	2.15%
Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.23%	160	12.39%	1.91%
Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	6.5	43.21%	160	12.34%	1.90%
Tennessee Titans	72.94%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	41.25%	180	15.51%	2.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	6.5	43.09%	160	12.04%	1.85%
Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6	41.17%	180	15.28%	2.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	6.5	43.06%	160	11.95%	1.84%
Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	43.06%	160	11.95%	1.84%
Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	Seattle Seahawks	72.76%	6	41.15%	180	15.22%	2.07%
Carolina Panthers	72.00%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	41.15%	180	15.21%	2.07%
Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	Seattle Seahawks	72.76%	New York Jets	74.58%	6	41.12%	180	15.15%	2.06%
New York Giants	72.02%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	6.5	43.03%	160	11.87%	1.83%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6	41.06%	180	14.96%	2.04%
Tennessee Titans	72.94%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	6	41.05%	180	14.95%	2.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Minnesota Vikings	73.75%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	42.93%	160	11.62%	1.79%
Tennessee Titans	74.64%	New York Jets	76.84%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5	42.93%	160	11.61%	1.79%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	42.90%	160	11.55%	1.78%
Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	Green Bay Packers	71.81%	6.5	42.90%	160	11.55%	1.78%
Minnesota Vikings	71.68%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	40.97%	180	14.70%	2.00%
Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Seattle Seahawks	72.76%	6	40.95%	180	14.67%	2.00%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	6.5	42.89%	160	11.51%	1.77%
Tennessee Titans	72.94%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	40.94%	180	14.63%	1.99%
New York Giants	72.02%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	42.87%	160	11.47%	1.77%
Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Seattle Seahawks	72.76%	New York Jets	74.58%	6	40.93%	180	14.60%	1.99%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6	40.86%	180	14.41%	1.96%
Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	Denver Broncos	71.49%	6	40.86%	180	14.40%	1.96%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	Seattle Seahawks	72.76%	6	40.84%	180	14.35%	1.95%
Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	New York Jets	76.84%	Green Bay Packers	71.81%	6.5	42.75%	160	11.15%	1.72%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	42.74%	160	11.12%	1.71%
St. Louis Rams	73.70%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5	42.74%	160	11.11%	1.71%
Tennessee Titans	72.94%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	6	40.74%	180	14.08%	1.92%
Carolina Panthers	72.00%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	40.72%	180	14.01%	1.91%
New York Giants	72.02%	Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	New York Jets	76.84%	6.5	42.67%	160	10.95%	1.69%
Carolina Panthers	72.00%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	New York Jets	74.58%	6	40.69%	180	13.94%	1.90%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	Seattle Seahawks	72.76%	6	40.64%	180	13.80%	1.88%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	6.5	42.62%	160	10.81%	1.67%
Tennessee Titans	74.64%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	6.5	42.62%	160	10.81%	1.67%
New York Giants	72.02%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	6.5	42.59%	160	10.73%	1.66%
Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5	42.57%	160	10.68%	1.65%
Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	New York Jets	76.84%	Green Bay Packers	71.81%	6.5	42.55%	160	10.63%	1.64%
Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Minnesota Vikings	71.68%	Jacksonville Jaguars	75.78%	6	40.54%	180	13.51%	1.84%
Dallas Cowboys	77.11%	St. Louis Rams	73.70%	Chicago Bears	74.85%	6.5	42.54%	160	10.59%	1.63%
Carolina Panthers	72.00%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	6	40.52%	180	13.46%	1.83%
Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Seattle Seahawks	72.76%	New York Jets	74.58%	6	40.50%	180	13.40%	1.83%
Carolina Panthers	72.00%	Dallas Cowboys	75.42%	New York Jets	74.58%	6	40.50%	180	13.39%	1.82%
Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	Jacksonville Jaguars	77.48%	Green Bay Packers	71.81%	6.5	42.47%	160	10.41%	1.61%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	74.07%	Kansas City Chiefs	74.63%	Chicago Bears	73.15%	6	40.43%	180	13.22%	1.80%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	75.76%	Atlanta Falcons	73.41%	Kansas City Chiefs	76.33%	6.5	42.45%	160	10.38%	1.60%
 
Last edited:
Dood once you get it all worked out let me know your actual plays. We're gonna retire next week. Yes we are :cheers:
 
I think the most plays I have ever had in one day was 11 and I know for a fact I have never had more than 15 plays for any given week.
 
you understand that kelly is designed for uncorrelated plays and these are all very highly correlated, while it may be a +EV even at a kelly multiplier of .25, this is likely -EG.
 
maxdalury
you understand that kelly is designed for uncorrelated plays and these are all very highly correlated, while it may be a +EV even at a kelly multiplier of .25, this is likely -EG.
Click to expand...

All the legs are uncorrelated I believe, unless I have two teams playing against each other in one of the legs for each bet (which I don't think there is).

We maximize our expected growth by doing the round robin. I'm not well versed on the math, but here's the solver setup. Pretend that all teams A,B,C,D have a 75% chance of winning and odds at 180.

Code: 
All 4 teams win	31.64%	1.496197499
A, B, D Wins	10.55%	0.917300452
A, B, C Wins	10.55%	0.917300401
B, D, C Wins	10.55%	0.917300413
A,C,D Wins	10.55%	0.917300402
A,B Wins / D, C Lose	3.52%	0.724334723
A,C Wins / B, D Lose	3.52%	0.724334723
A, D Wins/ B, C Lose	3.52%	0.724334723
B, C Wins / A, D Lose	3.52%	0.724334723
B, D Wins / A, C Lose	3.52%	0.724334723
C, D Wins / A, B Lose	3.52%	0.724334723
A wins / B,C, D Lose	1.17%	0.724334723
B Wins/ C,D, A Lose	1.17%	0.724334723
C Wins / D,A,B Lose	1.17%	0.724334723
D Wins / C,A,B Lose	1.17%	0.724334723
All Lose	0.39%	0.724334723

Granted, when I ran the original report, I wasn't taking any relationships between the bets into account, which would require some ridiculous calculation for all the bets that I'm not smart enough to handle. Plus due to limits on bankroll, I can't round robin all of these. So my bet %s are off and probably (certainly) are not MAX EG.

This is just making the point that round robins do actually maximize growth.
 
Last edited:
I'm thinking this is next level Pro type stuff. I just got my Pro status so I'm not ready for this yet.
 
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