djiddish98
The Dunk
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So I ran some rough figures, largely centered around the kenpom numbers, and there were a few outliers from what the spreads are saying. Since I view spreads (largely) as gospel, I wanted to figure out where my model is off and open up some games for discussion. I don't follow college bball at all during the year, so feel free to correct me where an assumption may be off.
Kansas St. Vs. Utah St.
Current spread is -2 Kansas St
Total of 128.5
I'm projecting 60-62 Utah St. wins.
Interesting matchup - Kansas St. hogs the Offensive boards, while Utah St. does a great job of boxing out. This projection is based upon both teams performance relative to the average, but I imagine Kansas St. is bound to lose some offensive boards.
Also interesting is the foul situation - Utah St. scores points from the line a lot more than they did last year, and Kansas St. likes to hack.
Working in K-State favor is Utah St's lack of forcing TOs. I'm also wondering if K-State is too much for Utah St. to handle athletically.
The total has dropped a bit since it was originally posted, but I'm still not sure where the points are going to come from.
Texas A&M Vs. Florida St.
Curent Spread is Florida St. -1
Total of 122.5
I'm projecting 61-56 Florida St.
I think most of the difference comes from Florida St's blocking ability (ranked 4th) and A&M's penchant for getting blocked (ranked 326), in addition to some solid interior defense.
A&M could pull out a win though if Florida St. gets in foul trouble (A&M shoots a good deal from the foul line, and Florida St. gives up some fouls). Florida St. has turnover issues as well, but I don't know if A&M is the best team to capitalize on that.
BYU Vs. Wofford
Current Spread - BYU -8
Total of 147.5
Projected 84-69 BYU (total of ~153)
Won't go into detail on this one, since this is likely due to Davies getting kicked out - although it's interesting to see the total being lower than what I'm projecting. I got the impression that Jimmer could handle Davies' offensive load, but Davies' defensive impact has yet to be replaced.
I would therefore expect a higher total than what's out there.
Wisconsin Vs. Belmont
Current Spread - Wisconsin -4.5
Projected pickem (63-63), with fraction of a point in Wisc favor.
This should be a great round 1 game, pitting two very contrasting teams against each other.
We find ourselves with another immovable object vs. unstoppable force matchup, this time with respect to turnovers. My projection hits Wisconsin with 2 more TOs than normal in this game, which may or may not be right.
Belmont shoots a lot of 3s, which Wisconsin doesn't handle well.
Working in Wisconsin's favor is a strong FT% and Belmont's habit of fouling (they do have a deep bench however), even though Wisc doesn't draw many fouls. Wisconsin also will likely cut down on Belmont's ability to grab Offensive Rebounds.
Kansas St. Vs. Utah St.
Current spread is -2 Kansas St
Total of 128.5
I'm projecting 60-62 Utah St. wins.
Interesting matchup - Kansas St. hogs the Offensive boards, while Utah St. does a great job of boxing out. This projection is based upon both teams performance relative to the average, but I imagine Kansas St. is bound to lose some offensive boards.
Also interesting is the foul situation - Utah St. scores points from the line a lot more than they did last year, and Kansas St. likes to hack.
Working in K-State favor is Utah St's lack of forcing TOs. I'm also wondering if K-State is too much for Utah St. to handle athletically.
The total has dropped a bit since it was originally posted, but I'm still not sure where the points are going to come from.
Texas A&M Vs. Florida St.
Curent Spread is Florida St. -1
Total of 122.5
I'm projecting 61-56 Florida St.
I think most of the difference comes from Florida St's blocking ability (ranked 4th) and A&M's penchant for getting blocked (ranked 326), in addition to some solid interior defense.
A&M could pull out a win though if Florida St. gets in foul trouble (A&M shoots a good deal from the foul line, and Florida St. gives up some fouls). Florida St. has turnover issues as well, but I don't know if A&M is the best team to capitalize on that.
BYU Vs. Wofford
Current Spread - BYU -8
Total of 147.5
Projected 84-69 BYU (total of ~153)
Won't go into detail on this one, since this is likely due to Davies getting kicked out - although it's interesting to see the total being lower than what I'm projecting. I got the impression that Jimmer could handle Davies' offensive load, but Davies' defensive impact has yet to be replaced.
I would therefore expect a higher total than what's out there.
Wisconsin Vs. Belmont
Current Spread - Wisconsin -4.5
Projected pickem (63-63), with fraction of a point in Wisc favor.
This should be a great round 1 game, pitting two very contrasting teams against each other.
We find ourselves with another immovable object vs. unstoppable force matchup, this time with respect to turnovers. My projection hits Wisconsin with 2 more TOs than normal in this game, which may or may not be right.
Belmont shoots a lot of 3s, which Wisconsin doesn't handle well.
Working in Wisconsin's favor is a strong FT% and Belmont's habit of fouling (they do have a deep bench however), even though Wisc doesn't draw many fouls. Wisconsin also will likely cut down on Belmont's ability to grab Offensive Rebounds.
