Matty Rain's NHL Betting Thread

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Matty
YTD 11-11 -0.6u $993.84

Monday April 15

Coupla playoff spoiler plays:

MTL +175
NSH +110
OTT +195

BUF +140
MIN +140

The model also likes the Oilers up to -500, but I'm gay and refuse to lay that much on a garbage late-season game. I'm parlaying it with the over 6.5 which pays +144 at FanDuel.

EDM/o6.5 +144

GL today gueys :pucky:
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Why not pass or puckline instead of parlay? Or did you like the total anyway?
 
The over is correlated so the EV goes slightly up in a same-game parlay (unless the price of the over is grossly inflated.)

Still a gay wager. I shoulda just played the -430.
 
FYI I had the wrong starting goalie for the Sabres. Not that anyone is following my plays at this point, but don't bet that. :handshake: This Comrie kid sucks hard.
 
9-1 Oilers with 13 mins to go. I like my odds here.

math equations
 
Matty
YTD 11-11 -0.6u $993.84

Monday April 15

Coupla playoff spoiler plays:

MTL +175 :redx:
NSH +110 :redx:
OTT +195 :redx:

BUF +140 :greencheck:
MIN +140 :greencheck:

The model also likes the Oilers up to -500, but I'm gay and refuse to lay that much on a garbage late-season game. I'm parlaying it with the over 6.5 which pays +144 at FanDuel.

EDM/o6.5 +144 :greencheck:

GL today gueys :pucky:
Click to expand...
3-3 +1.24u (+$12.52)

YTD 12-12 +0.64u $1,006.36
 
Tuesday April 16

CAR -270
OTT +180
MTL +145
PHI -140
TOR +120
SEA +180

Should be an epic night of hockey, Caps-Flyers and my Habs can eliminate the Wings. Shit gonna be cray.

:pucky:
 
Alright, so I just did a thing. I played two Cup futures on EDM (+850) and DET (+20000). I'm not one to typically bet futures, but now that most books give you the ability to cash out your equity in a bet, I find them more interesting (otherwise I've always been a high-volume small-bet guy, more interested in rolling over my bankroll quickly instead of taking long-term positions.)

Originally, I wasn't going to track these bets in this thread because there's no modeling involved here, it's just value betting, but I also want my record to faithfully track my performance over the next years. I think it makes sense to track everything, side bets included.

So there you go. I need the Wings AND Flyers to win tonight to gain some equity in the DET future. Intrigued to see what kind of "cashout" offer I get from FanDuel if that scenario pans out tonight.
 
Matty
Tuesday April 16

CAR -270
OTT +180
MTL +145
PHI -140
TOR +120
SEA +180

Should be an epic night of hockey, Caps-Flyers and my Habs can eliminate the Wings. Shit gonna be cray.

:pucky:
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Nearly all of these are moving against me, and not in a small way either. Jesus.
 
I don't like any one play in particular, but I like my chances of having a winning day. Habs are playing with zero pressure and they very nearly beat the Wings yesterday. It's going to be a crazy rematch tonight. I'm very excite.

1000029508.gif
 
Matty
This is going very poorly.
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You could feel teams tanking for positioning in playoffs.

Literally saw the Bruins scoreboard watching last night lol.
 
Heh. I lost the Habs play in the shootout after Wings were mathematically eliminated. Coin flip there. Then Torts pulled his goalie and got scored on. Shit happens.

Canes was the only boneheaded play, I should've checked the situation more closely before betting a meaningless game. :facepalm

It's all good. Probably gonna skip the last couple days of the regular season. Looking forward to these playoffs.

:pucky:
 
VERY disappointed Flyers didn't make playoffs the way they did a Phillies64 collapse but easily could have been broomed out in 4. As least this team didn't make it! Ha! Ha!
1713364559248.png
 
Matty
Tuesday April 16

CAR -270 :redx:
OTT +180 :greencheck:
MTL +145 :redx:
PHI -140 :redx:
TOR +120 :redx:
SEA +180 :redx:

Should be an epic night of hockey, Caps-Flyers and my Habs can eliminate the Wings. Shit gonna be cray.

:pucky:
Click to expand...
1-5 -5.3u (-$53.53)

minus another unit ($10.10) for the Red Wings future

1-6 -6.3u (-$63.63)
YTD 13-18 -5.66u $942.73

Saturday April 20
BOS -125
NYI +190

Sunday April 21
WPG -110
VAN -145

Tempted to bet WSH at +200 but hoping to get a slightly better price before pulling the trigger.

GL all #letsdothathockey
 
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