Matty Rain's NHL Betting Thread

[Matty]

I'll use this thread to track all future NHL betting activity. Betting starts today. All bets are 1 unit (risk 1 unit on dogs, bet to win 1 unit on faves)

We'll start with a separate hypothetical $1000 balance here just for tracking purposes, but in reality I'm using the same bankroll to bet all sports. My goal is to have as much of my bankroll in play at any one time, playing as many small +EV bets as I can find. I've always focused on sides/moneylines but may add totals at some point.

Wednesday April 10

EDM -115

 

[stevek]

Flyers gave up

 

[Matty]

Flyers gave up

I'd say! Torts seems to have given up too.

So sad.

 

[Matty]

FYI EDM is a neutral EV bet if McDavid isn't in the lineup tonight. I'm betting that he will in fact play - if that's officially announced the price is going to move up to -135/-140 or so.

 

[roguejuror]

Are these based on a model?

 

[Matty]

Yes, same general idea as MLB. The base data is slightly different (Goals Above Replacement instead of Wins) but the basic concept is the same.

I had EDM as a -118 fave with McDavid out. Normally I would want more of a discrepancy between the model and the actual odds/price paid, but I wanted to freeroll the possibility that McDavid might actually be in the lineup tonight. He's a gametime decision.

 

[roguejuror]

My goal is to have as much of my bankroll in play at any one time

 

[tullamore]

matty you betting playoffs.

 

[Matty]

matty you betting playoffs.

Absolutely

 

[Matty]

McDavid is out. Oh well.

 

[stevek]

matty you betting playoffs.

Tully,

Betting the NHL playoffs can be a pretty rough place.

Have you ever done so with a kok in your mouth?

 

[tullamore]

Tully,

Betting the NHL playoffs can be a pretty rough place.

Have you ever done so with a kok in your mouth?

@stevek if the flyers if make the the finals I’ll suck your kok wearing a gritty outfit with black taxi playing in the background.

 

[Matty]

Why does Tortorella keep getting hired. Fuck that guy.

 

[Matty]

Wednesday April 10

EDM -115

Never in doubt.

YTD 1-0 +$10 $1010

Thursday April 11

Hold on to your toques... unit amount is now $10.10:

BUF -135
CBJ +340
PHI +190
OTT +175
TOR -200
MTL +180
DAL -150
SEA -250
CGY +165

 

[MrMonkey]

@Matty thinking that possibly being Canadian, French-Canadian no less .....that this game with a stick n puck might be more of your forte than one with a stick and a ball? Forget the models, go with your DNA. Just sayin.

 

[Matty]

I do feel a lot more comfortable betting hockey.

I probably went to more Expos than Habs games growing up though. I like baseball. Just not betting on it.

 

[Matty]

Fuck off MrM

 

[MrMonkey]

Fuck off MrM

I was hoping for a smilie instead! One of my favs!