MrMonkey
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Just to give a head's up before analyzing but I am liking the Hoyas -4.5 before giving out some numbers on the matchup. Statfox usually is close with the opening line and they have 90-84 in favor of Georgetown. Kenpom comes in at a 74-70 score and Sargain has a rating advantage of 92.33 to 87.99.
Louisville and Georgetown are two of the best in shooting from both 2PT and 3PT range in the country while also playing good defense. GT holds a edge though when it comes to foul shooting accuracy. The Cards are a team that gets the opposing team to commit more turnovers than they do while the Hoyas make more mistakes than do their opponents. The Cards also like to speed up the tempo of the game while GT would like to be more patient when on offense.
Both teams mirror themselves in that they have 3 guards who are the focal point of their team's offense. The Cards have Knowles, Silva, and C. Smith who combined average 36.2 PPG and acoount for 46% of their offense while the Hoyas have Freeman, Wright, and Clark who have numbers of 41.7 PPG and 55% respectively.
In the frontcourt it is more of a one-on-one matchup between two 6"9" power men in Jennings for the Cards and Vaughn for the Hoyas. They both average exactly 8.8 PPG while Jennings collects 5 rebounds to Vaughn's 6 per game.
So who has the supporting cast or bench edge? Of course Louisville has the deeper team in that they use more players off the bench. The Cards have relied on contributions from guys who weren't expected to do so though. Will that continue? Yes they have played almost 10 games without their leading rebounder in Rakeem Buckles and now it appears that their leading shot blocker Gorgui Dieng will miss his second straight game?
Coaches Pitino and Thompson both IMO are both average game day coaches so don't think one guy will outsmart the other. GT at times likes to show that they can play up and down the court street ball so hopefully they will control themselves and stay patient, especially against a Louisville team that craves havoc.
The Cards 3 point attempts account for a whooping 40% of their total shots while the Hoyas' defense limits their opponents to 28% of their shots being the 3. Something has to give?
In the end IMO the big 3 of Georgetown will do more that their counterparts and the loss of not having Buckles and Dieng will catch up to them. If close near the end expect the Hoyas to shoot enough FTs to get the cover. Louisville has back-to-back nail biters against WV and UConn so this a spot play also that says HOYAS!
Some analysis and opinions from the best posters in the business that is Gamelive would be helpful.
gamelive.com Let's do this.
