Anybody here invest in the Tour de France?

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The tour is a couple of weeks away, and I am thinking about putting a futures bet on Alberto Contador -160 at Pinny.

Either the Tour de France or the hot dog eatting contest (nathan's) starts my investment season every year, and for the last 4 years I have cleaned up from the tour investments that I have.

I think the odds will get more chalk for Alberto as the days come closer, so I was going to put a large bet down now, and then hedge if I see some contenders come along.

As for daily plays, if it is a flat stage with a sprint finish, don't fuck around, just put the money on Cavendish and eat the huge amount of chalk that comes with it.

I am also going to take Cavendish for the green this year, as I felt that he was fucked over last year and he remembers the taste of defeat.
 
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It's pretty easy, here's how ya do it.

1. Alberto Contador for the overall win.
2. Cavendish on all flat stages.
3. Lay off from betting the mountain stages unless: It is late in the race and Alberto contador is leading but hasn't had a stage win yet, and there isn't a time trial coming up with in 2 days, and most importantly the stage has to be a mountain top finish, and then and only then, you can bet on Alberto to win it.
4. Lay off the betting the time trials.
5. Stay away from things that seem too easy like Armstrong to finsih ahead of some lacky on any day. The day to day finish of Armstrong or any other person who thinks they have a chance to win doesn't mean shit to them, and they often let up at the end to let the underlings to finish first as long as they don't get any time gaps.
 
I guess that I will just make this my official Tour de France investment tracking sheet. I just went to the course schedule and here's how I see it 2 weeks out.

Prologue: What are you kidding me, don't bother with this 4 mile race. If it rains, it could be good to watch however.

Stage 1,3,4,5: Cavindish will win atleast 3 of these if not all of them.

Stage 2: Too many mountains, don't bother.

Stage 6: Cavindish again, but only if you get decent odds, there are 4 cat 4 climbs, and he can't climb, but after the last climb, there is room for him to shine.

Stage 7, 8: Mid mountain stage with a mountain top finish, could go to anybody, watch for the schlecks or maybe some other climbers to get it.

Stage 9: First overclass climb of the race, with a descent to the finish, lay off and hope for wrecks.

Stage 10, 12: A mid mountain level race, again don't bet anybody.

Stage 11, 13: Look for Cavindish to win again here.

Stage 14: This could be the stage for old Contador, there is a overclass climb followed by a class 1 climb with a mountain top finish. It takes place a week before the end, and is one of the last chances to separate from the pack.

Stage 15, 16: A race with a overclass climb again, but with the descent to the finish, hope for rain and wrecks.

Stage 17: This one is taylor made for Alberto Contador, and it will be the one I would plunk the money down on for him to win.

Stage 18: Can you say Cavindish for the win?

Stage 19: Individual Time Trial, lay off unless there is a matchup investment that looks good. Oh, and if it is raining, totally layoff.

Stage 20: This one is Cavindishes for sure, especially if he hasn't won the green jersey.
Well that's it. Now as I am typing this, I see that Cavindish has crashed just today in the swiss race, so I will need some updates in the coming week to see if he is alright.

My first play for this tour is on Alberto Contador to win -164 for 10 Units.

Good luck everyone, and this is really easy to invest in.
 
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God bless your bicycle betting adventures, buddy. :moped:
 
I usually watch 60% of the Tour coverage but I've never bet on it.

I really like watching the mountain stages and the time trials
 
I'll follow, I remember you cleaned up last year.
 
durito
I'll follow, I remember you cleaned up last year.
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Yes, that reminds me that if you would like to see my record from last year, all you have to do is go on the SBR site that we all hate, and search for the tour de france, the thread was started by EnglishMike. I hope to mop up as well as I did last year, but that may be a tall order for duplication.
 
OK I guess this will be my first investment result of the new year of sports investing for me, and it comes at the Tour de Swiss race in the final stage which happens to be a time trial. The set up goes like this: Old Lance Armstrong is just 55 seconds from an overall victory so people think that he will put in a great ride in the "race of truth" tomorrow. I don't think so, oh he may make up the 55 seconds for the overall win, but he won't beat the guy who came in second in the Prologue Roman Kreuziger. So I am plunking down 1 unit on Kreuziger to get a better time than old Lance tomorrow in the Time Trial. The list goes like this:

Alberto Contador -164 for 10 Units to win the TDF
Roman Kreuziger -154 for 1 unit to beat Lance Armstrong Stage 9 Tou de Swiss.
 
RW do use Pinny for the Tour de France?

Which books do you recommend for lines on this event?
 
tullamore
RW do use Pinny for the Tour de France?

Which books do you recommend for lines on this event?
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Yeah, I only use Pinny for this event, I think some others have lines on it as well however, but i use pinny mainly because I need to float a large sum of money for 3 weeks.

i also lost on my first wager. I guess I should follow my own advice. It rained yesterday during the race, and in the worst way. When Roman was out on then road it was wet, especially at the end when there was a lot of turns in the course, and when old Lance came down the road, the road weren't exactly dry, by they were dry enough for me to think that it may have made the difference. Anyway, 0 - 1 and the TDF hasn't even started.
 
Well I am adding a matchup to the lsit of wagers here.

Alberto Contador to win -164 , $1000
Roman Kreuziger -154 for $100 to beat Lance Armstrong Stage 9 Tou de Swiss. LOST
Cadel Evans to beat Ivan Basso +159 for $100

So far I am down $100.
 
Team BMC +134 for 1 unit ($100)over Team SKY

Team BMC have George Hincapie and Cadel Evans on this new American team, and they have done pretty well this year during the season. Team SKY has Bradley Wiggins, but they just don't have the experience that is on the BMC team, with that and the fact that they have cobblestones this year near the end of stages, and with BMC getting odds, I'll jump on it.


Cavendish to win the green jersey +120 for 1/2 unit ($50)
Cavendish would really like to win the green jersey to further his career. His only problem is old Thor Husvod (I think that's how you spell it) has a stranglehold on the green jersey. Sure Cavendish will win if not all of the final sprints for the stage, he will win 80 % of them, but he doesn't pick up the excuse me points out on the road that Thor will. Like last year, old Thor will try to take advantage of the sprints inbetween the mountains to pick up some cheap points in the green jersey classification, but with Cavendish getting some odds here again, I lay a small wager on him just in case he gets his shit together and picks up some cheapie points while out on the road this year early.


Andy Schleck to beat Alberto Contador in the king of the mountain classification +241 for 1 unit ($100)
The final wager at first glance looks like a bet against Contador to win the entire race. Well you would think since Contador climbs the best, he would have more points than Schleck in that classification. Last year this was the case, but only by 5 points, and I can tell you that it usually doesn't happen that way. The reason is because as these 2 go up the mountain side, they will almost assuredly be connected at the hip for most of the way. Contador doesn't need to be the aggressive one which has me thinking that schleck will be just ahead for most of the mountain tops along the tour. Sure Contador will eventually jump on Andy, and take 5 minutes out of him, but with heavy odds on your side, take the Schleck to take the mountain classification over Contador.

Here's the other investments that I have going that haven't had results yet:

Alberto Contador to win -164 , $1000
Cadel Evans to beat Ivan Basso +159 for $100.

So far I am down $100
 
MIssed these, Cavendish is +163 now, that have any value?
 
durito
MIssed these, Cavendish is +163 now, that have any value?
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Lucky for me I got hammered alst night before the line for today came out, then woke up late. Old Cavendish wrecked again today as did most of the top sprinters so it was a total surprise winner. I'm not sure what you mean for Cavendish +163.

At +163 for tommorrow, I would expect that to be a bad investment. Tomorrow is another flat stage for the most part, but when I look at the profile near the end, there are 3 cat 3 climbs and a couple of cat 4 climbs to end the race. Oh and the actual end looks like a fairly steep climb to the end. I look for a break away winner to come to the finish first.

At +163 for Cavendish I guess to win the Green Jersey is a good price. There is going to be more competition this year from the American Farrar and Cavendish is just known for finishing the races and not picking up sprinters points along the course. For some reason however, I think that this year will be different. I still expect Cavendish to win atleast 4 races this year, but I also expect him to really try to win the green jersey. He would have won it last year if he didn't get a blocking penalty, and Thor didn't go out on a climber's day and pick up all of the sprinters points availiable. A look at the Prologue shows that he didn't care about that race which means that he is in it for the green jersey.
 
to win the green is the price at pinny now.
 
Well, lets see how the investments are going so far:

1. Alberto Contador to win overall -164 ($1000)

So far nothing is shocking, Cadel Evans has a 1'01" advantage so far and Andy Schelck has a 0'31" advantage as well. All the others infron of Contador won't be there for long, so for now I will wait until I see what happens on stage 7 to make sure that Contador has the legs for this year before I press the invesment, but for now everything is OK. Also just today Andy lost his brother Frank so it is looking a little better for Contador.

2. Cadel Evans (+159) ($100) to beat Ivan Basso in the overall.

Cadel is 2'40" ahead of Ivan so far, so this is going about as well as it can go. Only problem so far is that team BMC has lost a rider in the very first Prologue, this may or may not effect them later on when the mountain stages come around and they try to keep Cadel Evans in the hunt for the overall.

3. Mark Cavendish to win the green jersey (+120) ($50)

This one hasn't shown anything yet. Mark has yet to score any real points, and to make matters worse old Thor won today. This means Mark has to make up 62 points on Thor to get the lead. This means that Mark is up against the wall, and I expect them to come out tomorrow and ride like the pressure is on.

4. Team BMC (+134)($100) to beat team Sky in team classifications.

Well overall team BMC is down by 2'25" so far against team Sky, but I'm not worried yet. Team sky doesn't have the climbing power that team BMC has except for Bradley Wiggins, so I should know more about this play in about a week.

5. Andy Schleck (+241) ($100) to beat Contador in the Mountain climber classifications

This one techincally has started, but for the most part nothing has started, both of the contenders haven't scored a point yet. The only thing that worries me is that Andy has bit the road a couple of times now, and he is actually still ahead of Contador. Both of those things aren't good believe it or not, but like I said, this hasn't even started yet.

So now onto the fresh picks for tomorrow.

Cavendish (-230) ($100) to beat Thor Hushovd Stage 4.
Cavendish (-207) ($100) to beat Alessandro Petacchi Stage 4.

Like I said the pressure will be on Mark and team columbia tomorrow. If Mark can stay on his bike tomorrow, he takes atleast 1 of these, and probably both, which leaves me to my next investment.

Cavendish to win over 3.5 Stages (+205)($150) in the tour this year.

He still has 7 chances as I see it, so it won't be easy, but if he gets on track tomorrow and picks up the first win of the tour, he will be in decent shape after the first round of mountain stages. If he loses, or falls of his bike tomorrow, just about everything involving him will fail as far as long term investments go, so I would be investing heavily against him based on tomorrow's outcome in an effort to cover.
 
Yeah so Cavendish just didn't have the legs today. He had a pretty decent lead out, and a chance, but it looks like he had too far to sprint to the finish. Furthermore, I saw an interview with him and he just doesn't look like he's into it this year. Well he never really looks into it, but this year it seems even moreso. I will now be looking to recoup some long term loses with my selections involving him.
 
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