Any Oscar bets?

  • Start date
    • •
  • Replies 25 Comments
  • • Views 1,886 Views
Mudcat

Mudcat

yap
Since
Jan 27, 2010
Messages
32,603
Score
431
Tokens
0
I just have the one at the moment. Jeff Bridges to win Best Actor @ -449.

$1122 to win $250.

Looks like the odds have moved quite a bit since I booked it. Currently -821 at Pinnacle. I could hedge/arb but won't.




I am hemming and hawing over Avatar for Best Picture (currently +124). I liked The Hurt Locker which is the current favorite (-142) but just can't envision it winning. Considering they just gave Lord of the Rings Best Pic a few years back, I could easily see them awarding Avatar. The Field at +1584 is intriguing.



I suspect though that I will just go in with my one bet which I feel very confident about.
 
I also am on Jeff Bridges...... -480. I believe Avatar will win..... will probably bet it. There was a psychic on CFNY the other day she gave out all the winners.......
 
I see some value in Precious at +500 for best Adapted Screenplay....the favorite in that category is Up in the Air at -350
 
Man I am usually pretty good at predicting/cashing on these...but I'm at a 100% loss on Best picture. For various reasons, either one of the big 2 could win. it's a toss up to me. ill probably put soemthing down last minute for action.
 
Bread
Man I am usually pretty good at predicting/cashing on these...but I'm at a 100% loss on Best picture. For various reasons, either one of the big 2 could win. it's a toss up to me. ill probably put soemthing down last minute for action.
Click to expand...

I really think Avatar has it locked up....I don't know maybe its because I personally didn't like The Hurt Locker as much as the rest of the world or what but its what I think. That being said...I haven't seen Avatar so I could be completely wrong.
 
AMBy
I see some value in Precious at +500 for best Adapted Screenplay....the favorite in that category is Up in the Air at -350
Click to expand...

agreed on precious, that will be the darling
 
AMBy
I see some value in Precious at +500 for best Adapted Screenplay....the favorite in that category is Up in the Air at -350
Click to expand...


Now you got me thinking.
 
Hurt Locker
Jeff Bridges
Christoph Waltz
Mo'Nique

parlay
 
Mo Nique is a shoe in but I won't lay the -3400 or so.
 
I've got The Hurt Locker at +120 and The Field at +2500ish for Best Picture. Avatar really stunk as a film, if that wins then I'll be stunned. And broke. An interesting LOTR comparison, though - I thought the first one was an absolute classic, the following two less so but even the worst of the three beats Avatar hands down.

I'm also going to take an anti Mo'Nique bet if I can find a decently priced one tomorrow. Although by far the favorite, she hasn't done anywhere near as much "Oscar shit" as people are expected to do. Of course that's totally bullshit in terms of an award for ability but it's enough for me to not back her.
 
Mudcat
I just have the one at the moment. Jeff Bridges to win Best Actor @ -449.

$1122 to win $250.

Looks like the odds have moved quite a bit since I booked it. Currently -821 at Pinnacle. I could hedge/arb but won't.
Click to expand...



Odds on Bridges at Pinny are now -925.
 
Just checking some lines. So much chalk. Here's one I kind of like:

Best Art Direction - Avatar @ -475

I don't know if I want to pull the trigger on a second big chalker though. It goes against everything grandpappy peep told me as he was bouncing me on his knee.
 
Another surprise (for me). You can get James Cameron for Best Director at some pretty good plus numbers. Pinnacle doesn't appear to have anything but there are a few dollars available at Matchbook @ +330. At Bookmaker it's +250.

Like the movie or not, it seemed like some pretty impressive directing to me.
 
Mudcat
Another surprise (for me). You can get James Cameron for Best Director at some pretty good plus numbers. Pinnacle doesn't appear to have anything but there are a few dollars available at Matchbook @ +330. At Bookmaker it's +250.

Like the movie or not, it seemed like some pretty impressive directing to me.
Click to expand...

I can get Cameron at 330 right now...thinking abotu laying a little on that.
 
I am thinking too much. I am talking myself into all kinds of things. Now I want to bet on Sandra Bullock for Best Actress.

WTF? Pinnacle has taken down all their Oscars lines.

Anyway she is -300 at Bookmaker. I'm sure I could shop around and find something better. I know that is much worse than what it was but her only real competition is Meryl Streep who is only in half of the movie she is nominated for. If it was based only on talent, Streep would win but it seldom is. I think this is a coronation for Bullock.
 
AMBy
I really think Avatar has it locked up....I don't know maybe its because I personally didn't like The Hurt Locker as much as the rest of the world or what but its what I think. That being said...I haven't seen Avatar so I could be completely wrong.
Click to expand...

Avatar is so not Best Picture material. Now, I have not seen The Hurt Locker - I should do that today.
 
The award season trend has been for Hurt Locker to beat Avatar for critic-type awards. The one exception is the Golden Globes (which is voted on by a bunch of Euro-weirdos.)


Do the Oscars qualify as critic-type awards? Kinda sorta maybe. Probably. They do some pretty stupid stuff sometimes but at heart, they are critical awards.

I have decided. I am not betting Avatar (except perhaps in techy type categories if I see one that is not completely juiced beyond sanity).


I think I am going to stop thinking and just stick with my Jeff Bridges bet, take my $250 and call it a day.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.