Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Matty
His projected WAR is between 4.2 and 5. That's all I care about really. I'll be updating the projections later in the season, still unsure exactly when.

Baseball is random AF. Small plays, trust the math, keep plugging away. :handshake:
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So WAR is the important stat. Just last 2 out of 3 years just hasn't been his old self. No one more than me here wants to see his best!!!
 
Yeah, he was much stronger in 2022 vs 2021 and 2023. All the 2024 projections have him returning to form, just a notch below 2022 level.

I trust the people who do regression analyses on this stuff. I know they apply an age curve, among other things.
 
MrMonkey
Going to fangrapghs looking at ....
ERA vs xERA
1923 - 4.46 - 3.71
1922 - 3.25 - 2.71
1921 - 4.63 - 3.3

Now looking at WHIP and shows a quality pitcher...
1923 - 1.15
1922 - 0.96
1921 - 1.14
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well there is problem. guy must be 120+ years old to have been pitching back in 1920s. my system fades octogenerians and older
 
Archie
well there is problem. guy must be 120+ years old to have been pitching back in 1920s. my system fades octogenerians and older
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Thanks Arch! I was looking like something didn't seem right lol! Could be old age or TRUMP syndrome or possibly a combo effect? :light:
 
Matty
Yeah, he was much stronger in 2022 vs 2021 and 2023. All the 2024 projections have him returning to form, just a notch below 2022 level.

I trust the people who do regression analyses on this stuff. I know they apply an age curve, among other things.
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Matty, serious question! I know CBB changes players year-to-year .... but any idea with all my FREE time now .... chance I could do some sort of model? If so, where could I go for 101 basics ... possibly could help Shortstop also.

OMG .... quick random thought us two being classified as majority of TRUMP backers, "uneducated white males." :facepalm
 
I'm not sure how you would go about modeling college. I'm also a mostly-uneducated white male and not smart enough to compute my own WAR-like metric for college. You could probably come up with a big-picture, relative strength metric for each team within their conference, using the last 2 or 3 years of data? Rosters don't change that much year to year, do they? I dunno.
 
Matty
using the last 2 or 3 years of data? Rosters don't change that much year to year, do they? I dunno.
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drastically with 1 and dones, ease of transfer portal now, NIL money and kids be criminaling, flunking and getting handsy
 
Archie
drastically with 1 and dones, ease of transfer portal now, NIL money and kids be criminaling, flunking and getting handsy
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This was going to be my reply to you @Matty.
 
Matty
College basketball killed The Shrink. Don't do it MrM.
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Yes Arch was right, might research teams that had more minutes continuity with players still there from previous season. Like this stat going back say 2-3 years from this site.

One school ranked #1 at 82.7& meaning just about every player came back this season. While other side school ranked #340 at 11.8% meaning a complete new roster. FYI 362 schools listed.

Of course quality of team would matter but might be something to look at.
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MrMonkey
Matty, serious question! I know CBB changes players year-to-year .... but any idea with all my FREE time now .... chance I could do some sort of model? If so, where could I go for 101 basics ... possibly could help Shortstop also.

OMG .... quick random thought us two being classified as majority of TRUMP backers, "uneducated white males." :facepalm
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Not MrM bringing politics into the Matty Rain baseball thread 💀
 
Archie
drastically with 1 and dones, ease of transfer portal now, NIL money and kids be criminaling, flunking and getting handsy
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This is most relevant to top programs and conferences, though.

I would imagine any modeling efforts would be wise to focus primarily on little shit conferences. Probably much lower player turnover and much weaker lines because nobody gives a fok about Winthrop Eagles vs Radford Highlanders.

Wouldn't be sexy, but that'd be where the $ would be in CBB I think, @MrMonkey .
 
Matty
1-4 -2.80u (-$28.84)

YTD 8-8-0 +1.2u $1,011.48

March 31 Plays ($10.30 per unit)

LAA +135 (Detmers/Wells)
WSH +145 (Irvin/Martinez)
MIA -130 (Falter/Rogers)
CHW +135 (Flaherty/Fedde)
TEX -135 (Wicks/Gray)
STL +155 (Matz/Stone)
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Just bumping my plays for visibility

:letsplayball:
 
I don't love it, but adding:

ARI -200 (Feltner/Pfaadt)
 
Vegas Dave
This is most relevant to top programs and conferences, though.

I would imagine any modeling efforts would be wise to focus primarily on little shit conferences. Probably much lower player turnover and much weaker lines because nobody gives a fok about Winthrop Eagles vs Radford Highlanders.

Wouldn't be sexy, but that'd be where the $ would be in CBB I think, @MrMonkey .
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it's not unrelvant to smaller schools. I remember capping a small game early this year on another forum and the poster over there posited schools like VMI would have less turnover due to being there for reasons other than hoops. and we found this article

LEXINGTON — The VMI basketball team is starting over.

Again.

In the spring of 2022, VMI lost four starters to the transfer portal.

This past spring, VMI lost all five starters to the portal.

“The game has changed over the last three or four years,” Keydets second-year coach Andrew Wilson said before a recent practice. “Things have changed quickly because of new NCAA rules. They affect us just like they affect every other team in the country.”

Nine of the 13 scholarship players on this year’s roster are freshmen.

“We hit the restart button,”

roanoke.com

Exodus of transfers has VMI basketball hitting 'restart button'

"We're going to have some growing pains," coach Andrew Wilson said.
roanoke.com roanoke.com
 
do the 300-340 teams in those rankings tend to be small conf, mid major, power conf type schools?

let's see 1-25 and the last 25
 
Archie
it's not unrelvant to smaller schools. I remember capping a small game early this year on another forum and the poster over there posited schools like VMI would have less turnover due to being there for reasons other than hoops. and we found this article

LEXINGTON — The VMI basketball team is starting over.

Again.

In the spring of 2022, VMI lost four starters to the transfer portal.

This past spring, VMI lost all five starters to the portal.

“The game has changed over the last three or four years,” Keydets second-year coach Andrew Wilson said before a recent practice. “Things have changed quickly because of new NCAA rules. They affect us just like they affect every other team in the country.”

Nine of the 13 scholarship players on this year’s roster are freshmen.

“We hit the restart button,”

roanoke.com

Exodus of transfers has VMI basketball hitting 'restart button'

"We're going to have some growing pains," coach Andrew Wilson said.
roanoke.com roanoke.com
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Ah, interesting. Yeah I guess with the transfer portal being this easy they have incentive to jump from one shit program to a nominally less shit program. Brutal 😂
 
Archie
do the 300-340 teams in those rankings tend to be small conf, mid major, power conf type schools?

let's see 1-25 and the last 25
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This would be interesting for sure.
 
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