Coronavirus

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now model saying back to 81k dead from 93. Last death June 19th. peek 3130 on April 16th ...in USA
 
The British Prime Minister dying would be extremely newsworthy I reckon.
 
Early on, I thought this could likely happen to one of the democratic candidates or Trump.
 
Start of the zombie apocalypse

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Tron
Ok you’re coming around then. Yesterday in a different thread you said you didn’t think the NFL would have a 2020.

Welcome to the sunny side!!



:awesome:
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No, I still think it will be cancelled. Can just objectively appreciate it's an underdog. I'm sure you've taken an underdog ML before?

Matty
Season starts but one fat linebacker with chronic hypertension ends up hospitalized and season is cancelled mid-way through +1200

For 5 units
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TREMENDOUS value here nice bet Matty. If there is a season this will be a very likely outcome.
 
That stupid model explains in FAQ:

The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing through the end of the modeled period (August 4, 2020). We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number of deaths and burden on hospital systems that the model estimates.

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Just pie in the sky projections with no basis in reality. I mean the fuckhead in Georgia reopened beaches: https://www.usatoday.com/story/trav...-georgia-governor-reopens-beaches/2953003001/

Travel must be "severely limited"....... I can fly anywhere the fuck I want in the States, still. https://www.usatoday.com/story/trav...-crisis-why-airlines-still-flying/2918233001/

That chart is best case scenario everything goes perfect from now on... meanwhile our president is still getting antsy to reopen everything.

These. Numbers. Are. Going. To. Be. Catostrphic.

And those numbers are real fucking people by the way.
 
I’m probably the least “informed” person in this room when it comes to this coronavirus. I watch and/or read maybe 5 minutes a day in regards to it.

That said, why do I feel my gut instinct is telling me June 14th is our day of reopening?

I will say this. Regardless when all gets back to “normal” I won’t be the one with PTSD or panic attacks because of it.

9/11 taught me some stuff. I’m taking this day by day and not going to stress it.
 
which model? One I posted? That model was predicting 81k weeks ago, then it went to 93k. Now back down to 81. Whatever we're doing (and the effects of distancing might be negligible) is keeping the projections in line. I don't think an open bar in Montana, or a few people sitting on a beach in Georgia is gonna change that.
I'm hoping the effects of the drugs can bring number down further. And actually the last few days deaths have been slightly lower than the model expected
 
Vegas Dave
That stupid model



These. Numbers. Are. Going. To. Be. Catostrphic.
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The truth is......I just don’t know, Dave.

We will know by August if the model was right or you were right.
 
Casperwaits
That said, why do I feel my gut instinct is telling me June 14th is our day of reopening?
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I think that a lot of stuff will reopen by summer, but sports? I really don't see it. All it takes is one player who needs to be hospitalized and it's game over until there's a vaccine.

There are thousands of pro athletes across all the major sports. The odds are high that one guy somewhere will have bad symptoms.
 
Casperwaits
I’m probably the least “informed” person in this room when it comes to this coronavirus. I watch and/or read maybe 5 minutes a day in regards to it.

That said, why do I feel my gut instinct is telling me June 14th is our day of reopening?

I will say this. Regardless when all gets back to “normal” I won’t be the one with PTSD or panic attacks because of it.

9/11 taught me some stuff. I’m taking this day by day and not going to stress it.
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I think you're doing it right Casper. It would be crazy if they didn't open up most stuff in May. By June 14th there will be no new deaths. Yes that's according to the model. But unless something truly unexpected happens, I'll go with the model. And if they refuse to open shit when there are no new deaths :dunno: they better find another disaster to propagate
 
Matty
I think that a lot of stuff will reopen by summer, but sports? I really don't see it. All it takes is one player who needs to be hospitalized and it's game over until there's a vaccine.

There are thousands of pro athletes across all the major sports. The odds are high that one guy somewhere will have bad symptoms.
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I’ve given up on NBA. MLB, I still have opening up in June. Football will start at its desired date IMO.

I can only imagine the merchandise sales on sports teams hats w a “coronavirus” logo on the side to commemorate something lol
 
just to add one more thing. I suppose the model can be wrong in estimating when the peek will be. And a lower daily total for a longer period, would still get the total higher. However, if the "measures" aren't working, or don't exist, the peek should come sooner than later.
 
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