Coronavirus

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it would depend on how easily the virus spreads, how long it's been here, and other factors which we may not know yet. And then there's, how do you quantity the difference between going to the store more versus a restaurant? Spending your time playing hockey Vs walking in the park. Sure there's a difference in contact with others, but effects are probably not linear. It's possible that an 80pct reduction in contact with others has only a 5pct reduction of your chance of catching virus etc..
 
Going to be an ugly day for US deaths
 
reno cool
it would depend on how easily the virus spreads, how long it's been here, and other factors which we may not know yet.
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I think they have some idea. In any event if you don't know something...

do you err on the side of caution or not?

but yeah I agree on the possibility of diminishing returns on the level of isolation vs decrease of actual deaths.

but if even the conservative models show possible hospital shortages and thus higher first responder and essential personal deaths. That is the bigger reason for flattening the curve than just looking at total deaths.


the dirty south and rural areas need the big cities to flatten the curve now, and they need to push off their peak until a time where NYC, Atlanta, New Orleans, Chicago, Miami ect can send them supplies and Vents they no longer need.

if the mid south peaks too soon, they ain't getting shit from the federal government or other states.
 
looks like the dirty south is already closing in on high numbers.

already higher death %'s in states like Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi as compared to California per capita
 
Archie
I think they have some idea. In any event if you don't know something...

do you err on the side of caution or not?
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My point here is, I don't believe the model can be discounted, because we aren't sufficiently distancing. And partly that's because we don't even know how significant the "assuming social distancing" is to the projection.
 
Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, over 7,000 people died every day in the United States.
 
reno cool
My point here is, I don't believe the model can be discounted, because we aren't sufficiently distancing. And partly that's because we don't even know how significant the "assuming social distancing" is to the projection.
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well we have the assuming no social distancing model from the same people that said a high of 2.4 million deaths don't we?
 
Tron
Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, over 7,000 people died every day in the United States.
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weird false equivilence

How many of those deaths, were caused by something I could have caught from those people a week before they died while shopping at the grocery store and then I die 3 weeks later?
 
Archie
weird false equivilence

How many of those deaths, were caused by something I could have caught from those people a week before they died while shopping at the grocery store and then I die 3 weeks later?
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I should have given more context......

I had no clue that many people died every day in the US until I googled it. I thought it would have been closer to 3,000
 
This is the perfect smiley for my thoughts right now after a month of quarantine

:fiverahhh:
 
Archie
well we have the assuming no social distancing model from the same people that said a high of 2.4 million deaths don't we?
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:dunno: haven't followed that model. let's see how Sweden and Belarus does. Guessing same as everybody else
 
Yeah I can see how you would think that......

Population
Sweden 10.3 million
Norway 5.3 million
Finland 5.5 million

total Covid deaths
Sweden 591
Norway 69
Finland 34

Covid deaths reported today
Sweden 114
Norway 13
Finland 7
 
Why not compare with Netherlands Switzerland UK? They are obviously more densely populated than Finland or Norway.
 
reno cool
Why not compare with Netherlands Switzerland UK? They are obviously more densely populated than Finland or Norway.
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I think at this stage in the game as the spread is still moving geographically, it makes sense to compare using border states in the same region with similar densities that are in similar parts of the timeline. Netherlands had first death

I wouldn't compare the state of Connecticut or New Jersey to Oklahoma or Kansas for that reason.

and yeah places like the netherlands and switzerland have literally 10% of the square mileage of Sweden with 17 million and 8.5 million people respectively. Why would those be good comparables?

Finland and Norway are much closer in population density than any of those countries.
 
Edit - Arch beat me to it

penis
 
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