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wal66

wal66

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Ok so I wont pretend I know much of anything about bad lines and the sort. I understand that a book hanging a higher line than the rest of the market it constitutes a bad line. At least thats what Ive gathered.

My question is, if a book has a bad line, isnt it because that particular book has such heavy action on the other side? They essentially have to offer the bad number because they need it to balance out some, right? So if that is true do you guys that look for these lines also know which books are geared towards more professional players and which books cater to more recreational players? I ask that to ask this, if that is the case and there are certain books with heavier one or the other clientele and a book that caters to more professional players is the one that is actually hanging the bad line, would you still play the bad line?
 
a bad line is usually a mistake. (probably not what you're talking about)

some books shade their lines to take advantage of public opinion who they know love to bet certain sides.
Like for example if the NYY should be -120 and they know they will get plenty of action on them at -130 that's what they'll offer.
A book that handles more pro players couldn't do that because they would get heavy action on the other side.
 
When you say "bad line", it brings up the always interesting topic of bets being voided due to tangible line error. Virtually all books have a rule that they can void bets that are obviously wrong. But the application of that rule can get increasingly iffy as the book gets sleazier.

Like some errors really are obvious and there is little debate. A -1200 favorite being posted as +1200 - stuff like that. Human error.

But sometimes it is not so clear. I once had a bet voided that was something like +100 when the market consensus was around -108. It was reasonable for me to look at that and feel that the book was just trying to balance some extreme action on the other side. But no, they voided my bet claiming obvious line error.

Then you get into the issue of did they void it before the game began? What effort did they make to let me know so I could replace my bet?

Shit can get messy.


That was Canbet which was considered an okay book at the time. But sometimes people get goofy.

On the other hand I recall The Greek honoring a bet at +140 that, by all logic, should have been -140.
 
Muddy, this past weekend my GeekBet service had a bad line, Boise St ML (-145). First off that book never has a ML on anything over 21 in football anyways. So the guy I have mentioned in the past about always trying to take advantage of an angle calls me up and wants to know if I am taking advantage of this? I tell him no because (A) there couldn't be a moneyline on this game there and (B) it was obviously an mistake. He's like well can I use your account too cause I've maxed out mine?

P.S. For Matty and Onner:
Oh Matty, my (A) and (B) are not a result of my considering it and the right thing to do being the 2nd choice, it's that it was ridiculous that there would be a ML on the game and it would be that low if there was being overwhelmingly silly.
 
ie -105/-105 nfl side and i can get +200 on either side 3 seperate times?

I'll take the +200 "losers" everytime.


pavy you sound like fuking landers. pavy if you knew who was going to win you'd be a billionaire right now as you would just go all in every bet since theres no risk since they are "winners"


since the almighty pavyracer knows the future.

pavy you are not too bright.
 
To be honest Pav's I look at it the same way but I am trying to familiarize myself with the various approaches. Math guys are successful for a reason. There are plenty of cappers that are successful and again, for a good reason. I like asking questions of both groups because there is something that can be gained from each. I would never be able to be a strictly numbers guy but learning about certain aspects could help. Hell at this point anything could help.
 
Pavy
Wally there are no "bad" lines.

There are two type of lines:

A. Winners
B. Losers

For example if Yankees are offered at -120 or -140 or -160 at various books and the Yankees win the game all 3 posted lines are winners.
Click to expand...



Maybe I am not getting the full nuance of your point but this seems like potentially dangerous thinking to me. If the Yankees are offered at those three different numbers, one or two of them probably qualify as "obvious line errors." This is where you get into the character of the books offering them. If you bet a bad line you leave yourself open to a book that voids your bet if it wins but lets it stand if you lose.

Some people (usually rookies) bet bad lines on the theory that the worst thing that can happen is the bet will be voided. It can be an expensive way to learn a lesson.

Personally I stay away from any fishy looking lines.
 
Mudcat
Maybe I am not getting the full nuance of your point but this seems like potentially dangerous thinking to me. If the Yankees are offered at those three different numbers, one or two of them probably qualify as "obvious line errors." This is where you get into the character of the books offering them. If you bet a bad line you leave yourself open to a book that voids your bet if it wins but lets it stand if you lose.

Some people (usually rookies) bet bad lines on the theory that the worst thing that can happen is the bet will be voided. It can be an expensive way to learn a lesson.

Personally I stay away from any fishy looking lines.
Click to expand...

My example was regarding line movement not a book hanging a bad line. If I like a team at -140 I would still bet them at -160 after the line has moved against me if I have determined they will win. Betting a -160 line that has moved down from -140 due to heavy betting is not going to change the outcome of the game which I predicted is going to be a win.
 
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