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Pally's Totals Thread

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mcbaseball10

mcbaseball10

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Pally, you need a place to concentrate only on betting totals because we know that's what you know best. Pally, I will add some of my totals bets to this if you are ok with it. This thread can be used to ask Pally what he thinks about a MLB total as well.
Pally, this thread is yours and can be used however you would like. I know how busy you are so I started the thread for you.

Pally, Jello made a return yesterday and he may post in this thread too.
 
Here are some fukkin totals for you:

Aug 17 MLB [951] FLA MARLINS o8-120 [R NOLASCO -R/Z DUKE -L]
Aug 17 MLB [955] WAS NATIONALS o8-115 [S OLSEN -L/M MINOR -L]
Aug 17 MLB [969] DET TIGERS o7EV [J VERLANDER -R/C SABATHIA -L]
Aug 17 MLB [971] LA ANGELS o8-105 [J WEAVER -R/C BUCHHOLZ -R]
Aug 17 MLB [973] TEX RANGERS o8-110 [T HUNTER -R/M GARZA -R]
Aug 17 MLB [975] CHI WHITE SOX o7-105 [J DANKS -L/S BAKER -R]
Aug 17 MLB [977] CLE INDIANS o7EV [J GOMEZ -R/Z GREINKE -R]
Risking 12 USD To Win 1185 USD
Ticket#: 19761501
 
fuk i just saw this

well as you know the edges on these things are small

this year I am about +4% ROI on about 950 FG totals bets, but still only at about 52% winners or so, same as last year, roughly

I consider that to be very good but of course no single bet with totals has a big edge, and plenty of totals bets not only do I lose, but decide after that I was on the wrong side of, even if the market agreed with me and I got a great number on it

for the 8 oclock games I'll be on st louis under 9

That could easily be on of those games I am on the wrong side of, but we'll see
 
pally
fuk i just saw this

well as you know the edges on these things are small

this year I am about +4% ROI on about 950 FG totals bets, but still only at about 52% winners or so, same as last year, roughly

I consider that to be very good but of course no single bet with totals has a big edge, and plenty of totals bets not only do I lose, but decide after that I was on the wrong side of, even if the market agreed with me and I got a great number on it

for the 8 oclock games I'll be on st louis under 9

That could easily be on of those games I am on the wrong side of, but we'll see
Click to expand...

Pally's totals-1-0 +1 unit
 
Pally, why is the over in the Cin @ Ari game getting pounded? Pally I can not figure out why the RLM for Arizona in this same game. Do the sharps see Volquez as poor numbers pitcher. Pally, I've watched this guy throw and he could be a number 1 pitcher and he is at -120. Pally, are his walks a concern.

Rodrigo Lopez for Arizona gave up 7 runs in his last outing and has a record of 5-11. Are his numbers driving people to take over. So much contradiction in the movement that I am struggling to understand. Do you have a lean on the TOTALS for this game?

Thanks in advance Pal.
 
mcbaseball10
Pally, why is the over in the Cin @ Ari game getting pounded? Pally I can not figure out why the RLM for Arizona in this same game. Do the sharps see Volquez as poor numbers pitcher. Pally, I've watched this guy throw and he could be a number 1 pitcher and he is at -120. Pally, are his walks a concern.

Rodrigo Lopez for Arizona gave up 7 runs in his last outing and has a record of 5-11. Are his numbers driving people to take over. So much contradiction in the movement that I am struggling to understand. Do you have a lean on the TOTALS for this game?

Thanks in advance Pal.
Click to expand...


so fukin busy will post more on here tonight

arizona is a tricky place I am very careful about totals bets there and have been successful with them in general. Interesting than I have trouble with similarly disciplining myself on FFs, RLs, hockey, etc etc etc

I have to be careful about revealing too much of my methodology on a public forum

McB i am a known entity, guys evaluate my bet patterns and forum advice to try to steal my winning approach to betting totals

Even sharps such as rbs' justin7 sneakily try to get me to reveal my secrets and methodologies

I would give them away but not yet because they are my only hope for the future

This one I have not bet and will likely lay off, if I bet it I will post well before in this thread

If forced to take a side at the moment yes I would take the under, and it may well be a side the sharp modelers like more than I do

I would be surprised if people like mf or mrx came out in favor of anything but a no-play or under
 
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