Varied unit size or flat betting ??

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Mudcat

Mudcat

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I use flat betting. All bets are 1 unit. The unit size changes as the bankroll changes but the strategy remains consistent.
 
Flat Kelly :wah:

Not really kidding either. When betting large cards of mainstream sports, I use the same flat Kelly-based % on every play, figuring that my edge is roughly the same in most cases. This isn't an exact science anyway.
 
Where I have an edge that I can quantify (maybe 30% of my bets), I use a modified version of Kelly which smooths out bet sizes at extreme odds (the modifications become noticeable when odds are lower than -400).

Other than that I bet 2 units (1% of bankroll). When I am tailing someone else, it is 1 unit.
 
Matt Rain
This isn't an exact science anyway.
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That's what it amounts to for me.

I am not against the idea of variable bets for wagers with a significantly different winning expectation but it seems like all my working angles are in the same range.

I suppose Kelly would say I should bet differently for something I calculate as a 54% expectation versus something with 55% (just to throw some numbers out there), but in my experience things are not that tidy and consistent and exact.
 
I use kelly, but then again I"m an idiot..... But that's what I do. Lately I've had trouble finding my edge so my bets have been more like flat betting than real kelly, but WTF I'm recovering from the worst downturn in history.
 
i very my un it sizes as my roll increases/decreases
 
I bet the same amount for every bet but I reassess the bets every quarter with consideration of the bankroll and what I think will be the total number of bets during the quarter.
 
My unit sizes are all over the place in MLB and I am killing it. Might ease up towards the end of the month, who knows.

Right now I am gonna stick with what is working.
 
My bets really aren't kelly very often. Most are just the limit which on the crap i bet is usually way below even a 1/4 or 1/2 kelly stake would suggest.
 
Flat for the most part, but games like the Cubs over tomorrow, I will unload. Maybe 1-3 games I will bump up some and once a month i will unload if i like what I see.
 
durito
My bets really aren't kelly very often. Most are just the limit which on the crap i bet is usually way below even a 1/4 or 1/2 kelly stake would suggest.
Click to expand...

Yeah. I bet 1/4 Kelly and round for ease at the window here.
 
FairWarning
Flat for the most part, but games like the Cubs over tomorrow, I will unload. Maybe 1-3 games I will bump up some and once a month i will unload if i like what I see.
Click to expand...

I'll be at the game, 23MPH wind blowing out, AZ still on the road, PLUS their pitching staff was completely demolished in the Rockies series.

There can't be a line out yet...my guess is 10.5
 
Muddy I personally like flat bets with only the occassional larger wager in very specific circumstances. Course what I prefer doesn't really matter since I'm not as active as most and treat this more as a recreational hobby rather than a lifestyle.
 
I bet whatever I have in my account, usually on a parlay
 
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