The Future Of Carlos Zambrano

Polaroid

I need a tittle
Since
Jan 21, 2010
Messages
2,890
Score
3
Tokens
0
Carlos Zambrano of the Chicago Cubs was today suspended indefinitely by General Manager Jim Hendry after a meltdown in the Cubs dugout after his first inning where he allowed four runs, all of them earned, in the game against cross town rivals the Chicago White Sox.

The incident which sparked off the meltdown appeared to be when Juan Pierre, the first batter he faced, hit a line drive double down the line past 1B Derrek Lee; Zambrano appeared to accuse Lee of not trying hard enough to stop the ball or not trying to convince the umpire that the ball was foul (although it was clearly fair). A subsequent double, single and a home run gave the White Sox a 4-0 lead at the end of the first inning. In fairness to Lee, this was Friday's early game after the team had come off a 13 inning match in Seattle the previous night so he, and the rest of the team, may not have been perfectly alert in Friday's first inning. Conversely Zambrano had opted not to travel with the team and fly ahead to make sure he was more refreshed.




While he is suspended, and while both Major League Baseball and the Players Association investigate, the Cubs are not allowed to replace Zambrano on the 25 man roster and so until it is concluded they will be a man short. While that is naturally a concern, the bigger concern is what to do with Zambrano. This is not the first instance of bad behavior from Zambrano where most famously in 2007 he was involved in a fight with catcher Michael Barrett, which left Barrett requiring stitches, and being ejected in a 2009 game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and receiving a six game suspension, for arguing a call at home plate. This incident may just be the final straw for the Cubs who were themselves quick to dispatch Milton Bradley at the end of 2009 to the Seattle Mariners after a season of on field and off field controversy but a similar exit for Zambrano is slightly more problematic.

Zambrano signed a five year $91.5 million contract extension with the Cubs towards the the end of the 2007 season and so has an average salary of $18.3 million through 2012 which is certainly not small change. Unfortunately (for the Cubs, not for Zambrano) the years before his free agent eligibility were very good years as he averaged 4.13 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) each year from 2003-2007 but only 3.2 over 2008-2009 (and only a WAR of 0.8 nearly halfway through this season) and coupled with a lifetime 4.11 xFIP it is a very poor return on the dollar so should Chicago part ways with Zambrano, it seems certain that they are are going to have to mop up a significant proportion of his salary especially when his personal stock is at an all time low.


.
 
Even if they pay for most of his salary, I cannot many the Cubs will get anything for him.
 
Based on the past two full seasons, and giving him the benefit of forgetting about 2010, he is - statistically - worth about 60% of his true salary and that's even before you start discounting for his 2010 form. But when you factor in his 2010 form, which is not too good and more unlucky than anything else but certainly no form of a $18+ million pitcher, and his other issues then the discount will have to be quite a bit bigger. If they want to get rid of him and go low enough (or cover a high enough % of the remaining salary) then someone will bite guaranteed. it's just the question of how low the Cubs are willing to go.
 
I hope the suspension isn't long. I have been fading Big Z for 3 years
 
FW - being from Chicago, which way do you swing? I mean in baseball terms.