RogueJuror, a soccer question

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what could you possibly not understand about betting something +6.5 -104 being better than +6.5 -108?
 
max, wally is very stubborn and it doesn't help that Pavy taught him wrongly the opposite of what he should be doing.
 
maxdalury
what could you possibly not understand about betting something +6.5 -104 being better than +6.5 -108?
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This example is absolutely easy to understand. I'm talking more about what Durito is always talking about when the fav is one price and the dog is another price and it doesn't matter to him which is what as long as the price is right. I don't get that. Dog or fav in my head is determined on the edge I have with the line not the price.
 
What if god told you that 51.2% of the time team A would win and Team B would win 48.8% of the time and a sportsbook was offering you -101 on team A and -119 on team B. What would you do then?
 
51.2% and at a reduced price? Max I understand the simple stuff. Durito is more complicated.
 
wal66
This example is absolutely easy to understand. I'm talking more about what Durito is always talking about when the fav is one price and the dog is another price and it doesn't matter to him which is what as long as the price is right. I don't get that. Dog or fav in my head is determined on the edge I have with the line not the price.
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wal66
51.2% and at a reduced price? Max I understand the simple stuff. Durito is more complicated.
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replace god with the no vig probabilities from Pinnacle.
 
Nothing I've told you is remotely complicated Wally, if I didn't explain it well that's my fault. But, it seems more you just refuse to believe.
 
You've explained it Durito but to be honest with you I am a visual person. My comprehension isn't all that great. I have to see it step by step with a working example to get the hang of it. You refered me to some good info and I thought I got it but it turned out I didn't get it and it was all because of comprehending the information available. I interpreted it one way and it was wrong.

Durito I kid you about this stuff but the truth is you've been fairly patient and most helpful. The fact that I am not picking it up is all my fault. The stuff is complicated though. Not to you guys cause you've used it for so long. If you've never used it and it's all new it's less easy to grasp it all at once.
 
Here is an example Wal. You watch line movement for soccer for last 15 min before kickoff:

under 2.5 is at -110 15 min before kick off at book A
then every 5 minutes it moves to -120, -130
now you are at 5 min before kickoff and book A has it at -130

you look at book B

book B has it still at -110

obviously you will play at book B because -110 is better than -130 for you

this is what the math guys are trying to tell you and this is why their limits are being reduced by the books because they see what they do on a regular basis

some other people prefer to still play some on the -130 at book A so their book B won't slash their limits

it's up to you to find the best way to place your bets at certain books and with a certain pattern so you won't be shown the door

if the world was perfect everyone can get the best price for the best bet but the world is not always perfect
 
Yeah Pavs I understand that kind of stuff and I'll never have to worry about my limits getting slashed cause A: my win percentage is squat, B: my bet amounts are juvenile and C: I only have 2 books anyways.
 
how can you understand that example and not duritos example? What seems different to you?
 
wal66
Yeah Pavs I understand that kind of stuff and I'll never have to worry about my limits getting slashed cause A: my win percentage is squat, B: my bet amounts are juvenile and C: I only have 2 books anyways.
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I was trying to tell you what they mean getting the best price. If you are a small timer who bets at 2 books with very small bankroll you don't need to worry about getting the best price. If your bankroll is less than $500 it doesn't matter if you get -110 or -114 for a certain game but I admire you for being consistent in trying to learn how the math guys get the best price. What they are telling you is not rocket science.
 
RebateWager caught on to what pinnacle already had.

I got the UNDER -2.5 (-105) and it's currently 2.5 (-130)
 
I think this means I caught a good number.
 
that 40 cent vig is pretty impressive.

Wally you are still making a distinction between handicappers and "math guys" which I believe is confusing you.

A good handicapper doesn't have to bet steam or arbs or even get the best price. But he does have to get a good enough price.


Like when Pavy went 10-1 he was on average getting something like -300. He could have still won if he was getting -800. But if he was getting -1200, he would have lost.
 
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