Ragewizard's NFL Regular Season Plays.

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O.K. people I ended the preseason by going 4 - 3, to put the overall total at 20 - 14 for the Preaseason, and I ended up collecting a little over a dime of seed money for the season. So I'll take the huge return on investment from the Tour de France, and the money I picked up from the preaseason, and start winning in the regular season with the NFL. This year will be different, instead of telling you who will lose, I just decided to go ahead and tell you all who I think will win. It seems that some people had a hard time figuring out that if I put the team on the spreadsheet last year, that it actually meant that I was betting against them. Anyway, below is the complete preseason card that I invested in. I know that you guys hate the SBR, but I do like the spreadsheet that they have.



So now on to the regular season, and I can't wait. I come out of the gate with a play on the first game of the year with New Orleans (-4.5 -107) for $500 .

The way I figure it, both New Orleans and minnesota usually come out of the gate well and cover in their 1st game. This year however, Minnesota doesn't have the receivers right now to compete with the scoring machine that is the Saints. I realize that Minnesota will try to use defense and running the ball to protect against having to air it out, but I just think that New Orleans will be able to score easily enough against the Vikes to put old fossilized Farve into a throwing situation, and Minnesota just isn't set up to throw the ball yet, maybe in a couple of weeks, but not this week.

Next it is Indy and Houston going over 47 (-103) for $400 . Yeah, the vig at Pinny kind of sucked, so I sold a half point to reduce the vig to a respectable level.

These 2 teams usually go over the total when they meet up in Houston as in the last 5 times they played, however, I am only placing a small wager on this game due to both Indy and Houston having a tendency to play under games coming out of the gate.

I like Atlanta and Pittsburgh to stay under 37.5 (+100) for $400. Yeah, I also sold a half point on this one as well because of the high vig percentage.

The way I figure it is that Atlanta has a good team that will be able to stop the Dixon led Steeler offense, and the Steelers already know that if they can't stop Atlanta they will be doomed. I'll be looking for allot of running from the Steelers, and the Falcons, and thus a low scoring game. Understand that the Steelers have a way of being involved in games that get explosive scoring for a little while, but I just don't see it from Dixon, so I put another small play on the game.

On to the game I like for the week. Cincinnati and New England to fly way over 44.5 (-103) for $700. Again I sold a half point to bring the vig into the right level.

New England has a crappy defense, and everybody knows it. If the Pats are going to win this year, they will be out scoring their opponents to do it. This week the Bungles trout on up to Chowderville, and I see them scoring atleast 20 on the Pats defense, and I know that the Brady bunch will be able to return the scoring.

I live here near Eagle country, and since until recently, I was unemployed, I had a chance to go to the Eagles training camp. I can tell you they were for the most part, lost on offense when I saw them, and the preaseason bears that out. Of course preseason doesn't mean shit, so I am basing the play of G.B -3 (+100) for $500 mostly on Green Bay and the offense they bring. I don't think old Corn on the Kolb will be able to keep up.

Bal +1 (+123) for $700.

The odds makers just have it wrong, and by Monday, I expect Baltimore to be favored. In which case I may middle this play if I don't have a decent weekend.


 
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Don't look now, but I just slammed down a big 6 - 0 out of the gate.
 
el fuego:greencheck:
to bad I didnt see this before Sunday.
I came out 0-4:tully:
 
Well coming out of the gate, I pretty much put a beat down on the sportsbook last week going 6 - 0 with my picks. As Mr. Wolf says in Pulp Fiction however, "Lets not start sucking each other's diks just yet." There are still 16 weeks of the regular season to go, and this week, I am really not loving any games, but I like a few too many, so hopefully I can keep the winning ways coming. Here is the record from last week.



For this week I have selected:

CAR -3.5 (-102) for $600 Carolina just about always puts the smack down on Tampa since atleast 2002 going 7 - 1 in that time at home. Just like in the stock market, the trend is your friend in the NFL market as well. I'm looking for the Panthers to bring in the money for me again this week.

K.C @ CLE OVR 38.5 (-107) for $500 When these 2 teams get together, they don't just have an over game, it goes way over. The last couple of times these 2 exploded aright after they both had under games the week before. Once again, the trend is your friend.

TEN -5 (-107) for $600 Tennessee takes care of bidness at home, and against Pittsburgh in general. They have a balanced attack, and a weapon just like the Steelers do in a quarterback that can run well. The Steelers got one last week, but this week, they just don't have the power to win against the Titan's very balanced offensive output and very good defense.

MIA @ MIN UND 39.5 (-110) for $400 Don't look now, but Miami has the best defense according to the stats in overall defense. OK, it doesn't mean shit because it was Buffalo, but in turn, Miami did struggle last week against the lowly Bills like they always do, and Minnesota doesn't quite have the passsing game in order to take advantage of the Flippers, I'm looking to take a nap while watching this one, and in the end, I'm gonna cash a winning ticket.

CHI +7.5 (-116) for $400 Chicago has the most yards of any offense, and Dallas just looks totally disfunctional. Chicago also held old Detroit down pretty well last week, and in reality, they should have scored much more than they did. Of course they have the Cutler, who is always good for a couple of turnovers, but with 7 and a hook going up against a team that looks like they are disarray, OK I'll try it, but only for a small play.

JAC @ S.D OVR 45.5 (-108) for $500 Here we have a case of the irresistable force and the inmovable object. In home openers San Diego is 6 -2 with the over since 2002 while in road openers Jacksonville is 7 - 1 with the unders. So why am I plunking down a nickel for this game, well if you stayed up and watched the game last Monday, San Diego marched up and down the field and didn't score that much, and these 2 teams have gone over the 3 times they met each other since 2003. I think I'll call this the I just feel it play.

N.E -2.5 (-116) for $400 New England just beats New York, well except for last year. I expect New England to find a way to keep a field goal ahead of the non-offensive gang green.

HOU -2.5 (-106) for $400 Houston is a streaky team, looking at the master pivot table shows me that they tend to win and lose ATS in bunches.

Now on to my stock play from last week. Well FCX did indeed get above $81.00, and it did close above that price for the day. That happened last Monday, so I held onto my short positions, but I bought more long positions than I have short positions, which means I am net long the stock for now. I still see some heavy resistance and the price really should be dropping down, especially now that it broke resistance of $81.00 and pretty much did nothing afterwards with no follow through. This is all bad news, and to add to it, the stock is way overbought. If you actually did what I said and shorted the stock on the open at around $80.50, but then sold it and went long on Tuesday, you should be about 50 cents in the hole when you wash out gains and losses. I would sell any long positions, just because I see the oversold stochastics, and buying volume is dropping. Of course Gold has been on a run lately, and this is probably helping elevate the numbers for copper stocks as well. It really could break out any way and run hard, but I see the most evidence is pointing to the down side, so I'm going with that. So the recommendation is to sell long positions if it gets down to $80, watch IWM, if it breaks down along with XLF, SMH, and the QQQQ, the market will be on the down swing. I think the commodities will have a good pullback before they reach for the sky again. If your a long term player, just hold onto the FCX for the next year, and everything will be fine.
 
:clap:Fabulous start Rage to the season. I suck at NFL (again this year already) and if you keep anywhere near this (+ money) I will be tailing you. Good luck this week. Rage, liking Carolina too, but would you buy the .5 to go to 3 or not from your experience. TY! :up:
 
Looking at the past line history of when I invest, which is generally on a Thursday night, but not always, here are the stats:

Car at home the won 2009 by 10, 2008 by 15, 2007 by 13, 2007 by 13, 2006 by 14, they lost in 2005 by 10.

Car on the road they won in 2009 by 7, 2007 by 8, 2005 by 20, they lost in 2008 by 24, and in 2006 by 2 points.

Looking at the previous scores tells me not to worry about the hook because they just win by 10 or more or just lose outright.
 
Good luck Rage. Probably take the Falcons in suicide pool after your nice review thinking Bears have greater chance of winning than Cards. With low scoring game IYO thinking I will take the Dolphins and the points.
 
Damn Rager :clap:

I'm following all GL posted plays again this weekend. Hope you do me proud?
 
I will try my best since I am investing in all of my plays that I post. I'm also running late this week, so I probably won't post my plays until Saturday afternoon.
 
Well I went 4 - 4 last week but the games that I weighed with more on them lost so I went down about a dime last week. My total now is 10 - 4 on the year. Below is the record in detail.



Now for a list of all my picks.



I like BAL -10.5 (-105) for $400 to beat up on the Clowns because they usually do at home, and the clowns are looking just like they do every year.

I haven't been too impressed by the Saints yet this year, and going up against a good defense with Atlanta and a team that usually plays the saints tough is good enough for me. So put me down for ATL @ N.O UND 49 (-103) for $500.

New England couldn't do shit last week in the second half against the gang green, lucklily for them they have the suck ass Bills coming into town. Looking at the stats shows that the Bills have a habit of covering in Foxboro in the early going of the year, so I will take the seemily low total with the thought being that the Pats will be iching to get the offense back on track. BUF @ N.E OVR 42.5 (-113) for $400.

PHI @ JAC OVR 44.5 (-110) for $600. These 2 teams have suck defenses, and I hate to say it, but the dog killer has never played better. I'm on the scoring machine in this game, and for this week only, I will root for Vick to play well. It would be nice to see a touchdown pass in the red zone out of Philly, but then again, why bother when the Vickster just scrambles for the score.

S.D -5 (+101) for $400. Seattle really is that bad, and I'm kind of going against the history here because Seattle does have a good record at home, but just like last week, I can just feel it again with San Diego.

OAK +4.5 (-103) for $400. These 2 teams are evenly matched, and Arizona doesn't deserve the big number.

NYJ +1 (+116) for $200. New York plays well in Miami, and half the fans are on the Jets side anyway in the stadium. I also like the UND 35.5 (-106) for $400. This just in, the defenses are good for both teams.

The last play is on Monday night with G.B -3 (+104) for $600. Yeah the Bears have been beaten at home by the Pack 6 out of the last 8 games played there, and the Bears are actually in good shape this time, but they have been in good shape before, and looking Cutler sucks on Monday night.

Good luck every one and have a good week beating up on the books.
 
I cannot agree with your assessment of the Browns game here. I think the Browns are much improved
 
Well last week sucked as I went 3 - 6 and my record for the year is now 13 - 10.



I am still up for the year, so I can't feel too bad yet, but the trend is working against me. With that in mind, all of the plays this week will be for the same amount.



First up N.O -13.5 (104) $500. New Orleans hasn't been playing well yet, and suffering a loss to division foe Atlanta will wake them up for this week going against Carolina. Look for the run defense to be able to contain the attack from the Panthers thus making a rookie quaterback try to run the show and keep up with the offense of the Saints.

PIT -2.5 (-114) $500. Baltimore had the ball jammed down their throats by the Clowns last week, and now they come up against a better defense, and a offense that is finding a way to score.

DEN +6.5 (-103) $500. Denvers offense will find a way to keep this one close enough to cover. Last week they moved the ball up and down the field on Indy but couldn't score. This week they will.

HOU @ OAK UND 43 (-105) $500. Houston will stop the run, and make Oakland pass the ball, and Oakland will stop the pass and make Houston run the ball. The result will be an under game.

IND -7 (-106) $500. Indy has played well the last 3 times they traveled to Jagland to play the Jagoffs. The Jaguar defensive backfield is pretty crappy and now with Peyton coming to town, don't look for them to get any better.

WAS +5.5 (-106) $500. Washington plays well in Philly, and I think this one will be special for old McNabb. They may not win, but they will cover.

CHI @ NYG OVR 43.5 (-105) $500. Old cutler finally won a Monday nighter and it seems that Martz is able to keep him in check so far. Now they travel to New York to take on the disfunctional Giants, who were able to move the ball well against the Titans, but then self imploded near the goal line several times. This week, I look for the Giants to score a little more than last week, and with Chicago bringing a decent offense to the game, it will go over.

N. E @ MIA OVR 47.5 (-105) $500. Have you seen any of the Patriots games? Since playing well in the first half of the game against Cincinnati, they haven't been able to stop anyone. This includes the Bills who until last week, had the sorriest offense in the league. The Pats let them roll up 30 on them. This week, I don't see the Pats being able to stop a good ground game, and improving passing game, and by the same token, the Flippers will not be able to stop the passing attack of the Pats. Yet another over game.


So this weeks funzi parlay play is:
NYJ @ BUF OVR 36.5
G.B -14
PIT -2.5
HOU -3
IND @ JAC UND 46
MIA +1

Good luck everyone!
 
Well after starting the season 6 - 0 on the first week, I haven't been able to get a winning week since. Last week I came in again and layed an egg going 3 - 5 and now my overall record is 16 -15 and not surprisingly I am down about $150 on the year.



This week I will return to the winning so that my record doesn't get below 500.



Starting with HOU -3 (+104) for $500. The Texans just play good offense, and last week they ran all over the Raiders on the way to the end zone much to my shagrin because I was on the under. The Giants on the other hand played lights out defense but still got no help from the offense. I don't think they will have 10 sacks again against a balanced offense like the Texans, and the Giant offense won't be able to keep up even against a suspect defense that the Texans bring to the table.

K.C +7 (-109) for $500. Last week the Indy defense got run over, again much to my shagrin when the Jacksonville Jagoffs came to life. Indy plays better at home, but Kansas City has a even better running game and a better defense than Jacksonville. I'm looking for Indy to win, but not by more than a touchdown.

DEN +7 (-101) for $500. No body is giving the Broncos any love, and for the second straight week they are on the road and dress up in a touchdown dog scenario. Sure they have no running game, and they won't get one this week either. They do have a good passing attack, and against the Ravens who haven't seen a decent passing game this year, they will make enough plays and actually score from outside of the red zone enough to keep it close.

STL @ DET OVR 42.5 (-108) for $500. If you haven't watched a St. Louis game yet this year, I can tell you that the brand new quarterback that they have is looking good and going up against Detroits defense won't be too much of a problem if they can ind a way to not give up too many sacks. They will do this by running the ball, but Detroits offense is really pretty good so the Rams will also need to score some points. Detroit is winless, but they could have easily won a couple of the games they have played this year if they didn't turn the ball over, or commit so many penalties. Since Detroit is at home this week, and there foe isn't a powerfull NFC top tier team, I think they break out and win their first of the year and in the process they and the Rams put up some points.

N.O @ ARI OVR 44 (-105) for $500. Arizona has given up 41 to San Diego, and Atlanta. Of course those were road games, but even at home they gave up 23 to a Raiders team that could have easily scored 6 more if their kicker would have made just half of the attempts that he had. In comes New Orleans after squeeking by the Panthers, again much to my shagrin because I was on them and eatting 2 touchdowns of chalk last week. Arizona will need to manufacture points this week to keep up with the Saints who I think get it going finally this week.

DAL -7 (-102) for $500. Dallas has played well the last few years after a bye week in winning the game ATS in the last 4 tries. They also have the type of defense that can stop the Titan running attack. I'm looking for the Cowboys to come in and dominate the Titans and start their run for the season.

PHI @ S.F UND 38 (-105) for $500. San Fran might be the most hungry team in the league as far as wanting a win. This week they do it by stopping the Eagle attack on offense. Philly on the other hand knows that the Korn on the Kolb isn't going to be giving them the plays that they were getting out of the dog killer so they will step it up this week as well. Add it up and it looks like last Sunday nights game all over again, I will fall asleep early and miss nothing when I wake up late in the 3rd quarter and the score is still 3 - 0.

NYJ -4 (-110) for $500. Minnesota's offensive line has protection problems, and now the Jets are waiting for them and Randy Moss to come to town. I see that old Fossilized Favre is tossing many more interceptions than normal and Mark "Dirty" Sanchez is playing well. Take the Jets to continue the winning.

My funzi parlay this week is:

BUF -1
DET -3
G.B -2.5
S.D -6
S.F -3
CHI @ CAR OVR 33

Good luck Everyone!
 
Man following GL posters this weekend has been a disaster. 1-4 so far.

I'll tell ya though, if this NO over can hit, it will more than make up for it! Less go.
 
Another crap filled week as I went 3 and 5 and had my 4th losing week in a row. My over all record is now 19-20. How about Cincy imploding on me last week when I needed them to just not be such douchebags. Anyway, I hope they all have a good time on their bye week.



This week it is all about helping my bank account or helping my favorite team Miami.

N.E -2.5 (-107) for $500 New England coming off a bye week play here, along with if I lose this bet, I will help my team Miami.

BAL @ N.E OVR 44.5 (-108) for $500. New England hasn't let me down yet this year with the overs, so I'm sticking with it.

MIA @ G.B OVR 43.5 (-107) for $500. Miami's pass defense gives it up as easy as a cheerleader at the homecoming dance. I think both teams will score in the 20's.

DET +10 (+103) for $500. Detroit is 4 -1 this year were it counts, and really should be 5 - 0 if they would have gotten their shit together against the Minnesota team in which they ran up and down the field on but gave the ball away.

ATL @ PHI UND 43 (-103) for $500. Each time these 2 teams get together the game goes under. Vick wants to play so bad against his former team trying to get the "you got rid of me" revenge thing going, but it won't work, and hopefully they can put him away for his career with a good hit to the ribs again just for good measure.

NYJ -3.5 (-102) for $500. New York has been playing well since the first week, and they should handle Denver.

IND -3 (-109) for $500. I think that Washington's run of winning against teams that are better than them ends this week.

TEN -3 (+111) for $500. The Titans are better than Jackoffsville, and they will bring there better game to the party on Monday night.

for the recap:



For my funzi $20 parlay play, I will take:

CLE +13.5
S.D -9
OAK +7
DAL +1
IND @ WAS UND 44
N.O @ T.B UND 44

Good Luck everyone!
 
We got sooooo lucky on that no-az over last week. Good luck Rager.
 
Bread
We got sooooo lucky on that no-az over last week. Good luck Rager.
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Yeah that was great.

I may just may end up this week with more winners than losers. I hope so, and this could be the start of a run.
 
Well finally last week was a winning one going 4-3-1 and for me that makes for only 2 winning weeks so far this year with a record of 23-23-1, or right at the 50% mark but more importantly the money level is at -$729.84 . This week I will see if another trend is developing and I can start to string some winning weeks together.

Below is the overall record:



Here are my picks for this week:



BAL -13 (+103) for $500. OK since 2002 when Baltimore has been favored at home from -12 to -14, they are 5-0, and 3 of those happened last year. Buffalo just sucks and cannot stop anyone. Baltimore is smarting from the loss last week, and I think they come out and take care of bidness early and often against a lesser team.

WAS @ CHI UND 40 (+100) for $500. This game has the smell of a nap for me. Chicago's defense wasn't actually as bad as the score from last week indicates, and neither is the offense. Washington on the other hand hasn't scoredmore than 20 points in a game on the road in the first half of a season since week 8 in 2008. Ok that last stat doesn't mean shit, but I still think this game has potential to go way under the total.

PIT -3 (+102) for $500. People are saying that Miami at home as a dog is a good bet, but looking at the record shows that Miami is 0-3 since 2002 when they are exactly a 3 point dog at home during the first half of the season, and it doesn't get better because at a dog of 3.5 or less, they are just 4 - 6 in the same time span. I am also placing a small wager on the UND 41 (-105) for $100. The amount is smaller because Miami's home dog games the last 2 years have all gone over the total, 4-0. I am still playing the under because I think that Miami will be able to hold Pittsburgh under 21 points while at the same time not be able to crack above 17. In fact I'm calling the score at 21-17 for the Steelers.

N.E @ S.D OVR 48 (-104) for $500. New England let me down last week and didn't provide a winner in my over play. They came close, but that doesn't count. This week they go up against a desperate Charger team that can score points if they aren't getting a good pass rush and they don't turn the ball over. This week I think a shhotout is about to occur.

OAK +9.5 (-111) for $500. The Oakland / Denver games are funny, each team beats the other in the other teams stadiums. Oakland is 6-2 since 2002 in Denver, and 4-0 since 2006. Then in Oakland, the story is different but that is for latter in the year. I sold a half point to get the vig to a more respectable level.

MIN ML (+126) or $500 . The number is at +2.5 +104 now as I type this, and Pinny wants a ransom to sell a half point, so I decided that if minnesota is going to cover, they will probably win anyway, so I am just taking the moneyline in this one.

DAL -3 (-117) for $500. Dallas is totally disfunctional. This week however, I think they can stop celebrating in the endzone and maybe only get 75 yards in penalties so that they can beat the Giants in what I am calling my first ever "Desparation must win Lock of Stupidity". It must be, because I have no reason to take Dalls in this spot other than they are desparate.

My funzi plays haven't even been close in recent weeks, but I will still keep doing them because it is almost like the lottery.

S.F -2
PHI @ TEN OVR 42.5
CLE +13
JAC @ K.C OVR 37.5
N.E +3
MIN @ G.B OVR 44
 
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