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Oscars 2014

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Mudcat

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are tomorrow night, hosted by Ellen.

It's always a great time of year for people who don't watch them and feel really strong about that to make self-congratulatory announcements along the lines of, "Oh, I don't watch the Oscars." Well done, those people!

I think the main thing I will be cheering for is for Jennifer Lawrence to NOT win. That is in the Supporting Actress category. The black chick from 12 Years a Slave has become the betting favorite, although it's not overwhelming.


Why, let's take a look at that.


Academy Awards - Oscar for Best Supporting Actress

Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave -130
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle +125
Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine +5000
June Squibb - Nebraska +4000
Julia Roberts - August Osage County +15000


At least no one is taking Julia Roberts seriously for this. Fokking close race up top though. Go black chick.
 
That's odd. The overwhelming trend I see is to treat her like Meryl Streep. They gave her an Oscar last year and now she is nominated again. Critics I see have been out-of-proportion goofy about her since Winter's Bone. There has been this bizarre trend (which I would call mass hysteria) for years which is clearly not slowing down.

The contrarian move would be anti-JL. If that trend is out there I'm glad, but it is not making its way to me and obviously not to awards voters. I hope it gains some oomph.


Anyway, in these matters, I always speak strictly on merit. I find her acting to be mediocre. Black chick was not the greatest thing I have ever seen but she was pretty good, pretty convincing, certainly much better than the other nominees I have seen. (Haven't seen Blue Jasmine though.)
 
True true... I don't follow the media reaction so maybe she's lauded there. However, almost everyone I know personally is anti-JL often citing her being crammed down thier thoats with appearences, gossip, fawning, etc. So perhaps I'm being contra to the contrarians.. and thus in the majority... I dunno.

FWIW I do think shes servicable as an actress. I found her overly emoted/charicaturish in Hustle. Though to a certain extent, wasn't that the point tho?!? In hunger games I find her perfectly acceptable, i'm there for the action... the bar for actor excellence is pretty low.
 
The Best Picture is somewhat close. I am a little surprised at how it has evolved. I never imagined Gravity being anything more than a symbolic gesture kind of nomination. Like, since we now allow more than 5 nominees, let's fill out the field with a few genre crowd-pleasers. But no, it is the 2nd favorite.

American Hustle seemed like a co-favorite for a long time but it dropped. Why, I don't know.

Guess I'm cheering for 12 Years a Slave here too. My choice, Her, ain't gonna get it, I know that.



Academy Awards - Oscar for Best Motion Picture

12 Years a Slave -330
Gravity +355
American Hustle +2100
Dallas Buyers Club +4000
The Wolf of Wall Street +6300
Her +28500
Nebraska +30000
Philomena +30000
Captain Phillips +40000
 
I was filling out a poll the other day about the Best Actor category. I took it as my personal vote, not a prediction. I really had to think hard on it. I finally voted for the guy whom, it turns out, is last in the wagering odds.

Definitely not Bruce Dern. Ejiofor I dropped out pretty fast. It's an Oscar-bait kind of role but I only saw competence, not greatness in the performance.

I can justify any of the other 3, McConaughey, DiCaprio and Bale.

I would vote for Joaquin Phoenix over them all.



Academy Awards - Oscar for Best Leading Actor

Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club -465
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street +535
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave +1900
Bruce Dern - Nebraska +5000
Christian Bale - American Hustle +15000
 
Do you think the hoopla over Julia Robert's sister's suicide and the related bad press will have any pos/neg/no effect? Sounds like she is not a contender anyway, but I had heard some early talk that this might somehow affect her chances.
 
It's always a great time of year for people who don't watch them and feel really strong about that to make self-congratulatory announcements along the lines of, "Oh, I don't watch the Oscars." Well done, those people!

Some people will win...some people will lose...Which does which....I could give 2 fucks.


There it is. :greencheck:
 
Best Actress is one of the slam-dunkier categories this year with the winner being the one nominee I haven't seen. Nevertheless I have huge respect for Cate Blanchett and will feel glad about her winning. There are few things that could get me to watch a Woody Allen movie but I will definitely watch that at some point just because of her.


Academy Awards - Oscar for Best Leading Actress

Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine -2150
Amy Adams - American Hustle +1600
Sandra Bullock - Gravity +7500
Judi Dench - Philomena +9000
Merryl Streep - August: Osage County +22500
 
Looks like Jared Leto is good for Supporting Actor. Total Oscar bait role. Cross-dresser dying of AIDS? Are you kidding me? No but I thought he was very good and would not begrudge, although I think I would go for Fassbender if I had a vote.

Captain Phillips guy has no place in this IMO. Ridiculous nomination. Jonah Hill is pretty far-fetched too. I don't know what those yahoos are thinking sometimes.


Academy Awards - Oscar for Best Supporting Actor

Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club -1200
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips +1500
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave +1950
Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street +8500
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle +13000
 
I guess that leaves Best Director among the majorest categories. Cuaron is the POTY lock. No idea how to feel about that. Ever since Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby beat Scorsese for The Aviator I have stopped pretending to have any idea what they are looking for.

Gravity had the best special effects. So, um, yeah. :dunno:


Academy Awards - Oscar for Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity -1900
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave +1350
David O. Russell - American Hustle +9000
Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street +14000
Alexander Payne - Nebraska +32500