Vegas Dave
Not a Real GameLiver
- Since
- Jan 28, 2010
- Messages
- 4,613
- Score
- 2,588
- Tokens
- 20
Oakland (+4.0) @ Buffalo (-4.0)
I've had Oakland circled all week in this spot, but this is one of many picks that fall into the philosophy category this week. One of my rules is to go against teams that beat a division rival on Monday Night when they are playing a non-division rival the following week. The idea is that it will be difficult for the team to match that intensity for a second straight week. Not only does this game fall into that category, but Oakland's game against Denver was particularly emotional and intense, and Buffalo's game against Kansas City was easy. Furthermore, Oakland travels to the east coast for an early game that is the equivalent of a 7:00 am PT start time. Love the Raiders' front seven and think they have a good chance to win this one outright (Hope so!), but too many factors to ignore here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo
Baltimore (-6.0) @ Tennessee (+6.0)
One of those games that just seem to obvious. Baltimore is coming off of a total domination of the defending AFC Champions, a game in which they forced seven turnovers and dominated on both sides of the ball. Tennessee lost to a Jacksonville team quarterbacked by Luke McCown, and Chris Johnson didn't do much of anything. Seems like a good spot for Baltimore to win huge, and most of the betting public seems to agree; so I'll play the role of contrarian and take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
Seattle (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0)
Last week, Pittsburgh had one of the worst games they've had in years, getting completely humiliated by Baltimore in both sides of the ball. Now, they return home, and get to play a very bad Seattle team. I'm expecting the frustration to manifest itself on the field Sunday, and Pittsburgh to totally steamroll the Seahawks as a result.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
San Diego (+7.0) @ New England (-7.0)
I'm not stupid enough to pick against New England EVERY week, but I am stupid enough to pick against them again this week. The defense was suspect last week as I expected; but the offense was impeccable. San Diego's defense is quietly one of the league's best, and could slow down Tom Brady enough to let the offense do its job against this vulnerable defense. Plus, New England is coming off of a Monday Night Football win over a rival AND the public perceives them to be invincible AND is betting them heavily. San Diego makes a solid philosophy picks, and the X's and O's don't look terrible either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego
Houston (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
A very proud and good defense, Miami gave up over 600 yards of offense last week, being completely humiliated at home on national television Monday night as they looked gassed and hopeless. Meanwhile, Houston cruised to a simple victory over Indianapolis and has to be feeling very good about themselves this week. Many expect Houston's dangerous offense to gash the Dolphins' defense like New England did, but I think Miami has a big rebound game and finally makes their home fans proud.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Atlanta (+2.5)
Up there with Miami as the most obvious philosophy pick of the week. Atlanta has an awful game in a horrible loss to Chicago last week, losing by 18. Philadelphia cruises to an easy win over St. Louis, winning by 18. I love a team coming off of a big loss facing a team coming off of a big win. Tack on that Atlanta is a great home team and that the line has moved from +3.0 to +2.5 despite 80% of betting action coming in on Philadelphia (looks like smart/big money is on Atlanta!), and there is plenty to love about the Falcons this week. Like New England, I can't pick against Philadelphia every week... but I have no choice when my philosophy alarm goes off! Interesting side note: Will be interesting to see how Michael Vick handles what should be an emotional return to Atlanta.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Atlanta
I've had Oakland circled all week in this spot, but this is one of many picks that fall into the philosophy category this week. One of my rules is to go against teams that beat a division rival on Monday Night when they are playing a non-division rival the following week. The idea is that it will be difficult for the team to match that intensity for a second straight week. Not only does this game fall into that category, but Oakland's game against Denver was particularly emotional and intense, and Buffalo's game against Kansas City was easy. Furthermore, Oakland travels to the east coast for an early game that is the equivalent of a 7:00 am PT start time. Love the Raiders' front seven and think they have a good chance to win this one outright (Hope so!), but too many factors to ignore here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Buffalo
Baltimore (-6.0) @ Tennessee (+6.0)
One of those games that just seem to obvious. Baltimore is coming off of a total domination of the defending AFC Champions, a game in which they forced seven turnovers and dominated on both sides of the ball. Tennessee lost to a Jacksonville team quarterbacked by Luke McCown, and Chris Johnson didn't do much of anything. Seems like a good spot for Baltimore to win huge, and most of the betting public seems to agree; so I'll play the role of contrarian and take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Tennessee
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Baltimore
Seattle (+14.0) @ Pittsburgh (-14.0)
Last week, Pittsburgh had one of the worst games they've had in years, getting completely humiliated by Baltimore in both sides of the ball. Now, they return home, and get to play a very bad Seattle team. I'm expecting the frustration to manifest itself on the field Sunday, and Pittsburgh to totally steamroll the Seahawks as a result.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
San Diego (+7.0) @ New England (-7.0)
I'm not stupid enough to pick against New England EVERY week, but I am stupid enough to pick against them again this week. The defense was suspect last week as I expected; but the offense was impeccable. San Diego's defense is quietly one of the league's best, and could slow down Tom Brady enough to let the offense do its job against this vulnerable defense. Plus, New England is coming off of a Monday Night Football win over a rival AND the public perceives them to be invincible AND is betting them heavily. San Diego makes a solid philosophy picks, and the X's and O's don't look terrible either.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego
Houston (-3.0) @ Miami (+3.0)
A very proud and good defense, Miami gave up over 600 yards of offense last week, being completely humiliated at home on national television Monday night as they looked gassed and hopeless. Meanwhile, Houston cruised to a simple victory over Indianapolis and has to be feeling very good about themselves this week. Many expect Houston's dangerous offense to gash the Dolphins' defense like New England did, but I think Miami has a big rebound game and finally makes their home fans proud.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Miami
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Miami
Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Atlanta (+2.5)
Up there with Miami as the most obvious philosophy pick of the week. Atlanta has an awful game in a horrible loss to Chicago last week, losing by 18. Philadelphia cruises to an easy win over St. Louis, winning by 18. I love a team coming off of a big loss facing a team coming off of a big win. Tack on that Atlanta is a great home team and that the line has moved from +3.0 to +2.5 despite 80% of betting action coming in on Philadelphia (looks like smart/big money is on Atlanta!), and there is plenty to love about the Falcons this week. Like New England, I can't pick against Philadelphia every week... but I have no choice when my philosophy alarm goes off! Interesting side note: Will be interesting to see how Michael Vick handles what should be an emotional return to Atlanta.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Atlanta
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Atlanta