Need a favor....

[Tron]

Can anyone with access to SBR Forums log in and find my "Lock MLB 2023" thread?

Maybe it's titled "Locker MLB 2023"?

I just need you to look at the first post and tell me what my record and units are in that first post that I carried over from my prior year threads. And then look at the last page to see my YTD for 2023.

I haven't been able to log on to SBR for at about a year.

I think there were like 500+ plays or something.

I'm sorry to ask this but I need to get some confidence back. I'm playing scared right now.

THANK YOU

 

[Archie]

The Locks last post is December 16 2022

 

[Archie]

Locker Baseball 2022

Sports Betting Forum | Sportsbook Review

www.sportsbookreview.com

Baseball is back and so the Locker Bases thread.

Should be a wild night of signings around MLB.

From 2017-2021 I am +53.18 units over the course of 602 plays (all documented here on SBR).

Locker Bases 2021

Sports Betting Forum | Sportsbook Review

www.sportsbookreview.com

All plays will be to win one unit (favorites) or risking one unit on dogs (unless otherwise stated).

Let’s have fun this year.

Opening Day is April 7th.

 

[Archie]

Ytd 50-53-2 -0.99

 

[Tron]

@Archie, you are a gem sir thank you

 

[Tron]

707 plays +52.19

6 MLB seasons

Galaxies short of great but I feel like the majority of sports bettors are doing a lot worse over 707 plays?

Definitely a grind but one that I find fun and rewarding.

Cmon 2024 one time

 

[tullamore]

Nice work.

 

[roguejuror]

Can anyone with access to SBR Forums log in and find my "Lock MLB 2023" thread?

Maybe it's titled "Locker MLB 2023"?

The Locks last post is December 16 2022

yeah 2022 you did over there, 2023 you did here

Tron MLB 2023

Can’t log in across the street so my 5 (or is it 6 or 7) year streak of making MLB selections over there is over. I’ll put my selections in this thread as to not dirty up the Polaroid Baseball Thread. It’s possible I won’t have any selections for the first 10-14 days of the season but who knows.

www.gamelive.com

 

[Tron]

707 plays +52.19

6 MLB seasons

Galaxies short of great but I feel like the majority of sports bettors are doing a lot worse over 707 plays?

Definitely a grind but one that I find fun and rewarding.

Cmon 2024 one time

Adding my Gamelive 2023 totals to this so I can carry this over to the end of 2024's results

789 plays

+68.41 units

 

[Vegas Dave]

Adding my Gamelive 2023 totals to this so I can carry this over to the end of 2024's results

789 plays

+68.41 units

Has your capping strategy of fading public/suspicious lines remained consistent throughout? Are there statistics involved too or just eyeball test?

 

[Tron]

Has your capping strategy of fading public/suspicious lines remained consistent throughout? Are there statistics involved too or just eyeball test?

Thanks for asking my Southern Cal internet friend. I'll probably forget one or two parts of the criteria but I'll do my best. I'm acutely aware that this could all be seen as completely retarded by a professional sports bettor.

The process has remained consistent throughout.

the first part of the selection process is scrolling the lines and looking for lines that seem (APPEAR for @MrMonkey) suspicious

Then I make a note of what the line is at that time. So let's say the A's seem like a play (as they do today). The A's last I checked are +113. One thing that will make them a no play is they move to say +120 (or higher). Even though it seems like I'm now getting "more value", it's no longer as suspicious for me. If the A's go to +109 as first pitch approaches I like them even more.

If the line stays "suspicious", I will go over to Fangraphs to see how the starters ERA's compare to their xFIP to see if Pitcher A and B really are who they're ERA says they are. I will also look at some BABIP stats of key hitters on both sides. Sometimes guys have Batting Averages and OPS's that look brutal but their BABIP is .190

Then I'll check in with the real time bet % numbers

If the A's are getting 40% (or worse) of the "money" I like that.

I'm most comfortable making a selection 1 to 10 minutes before first pitch. If my A's are clicking to a bigger dog as first pitch approaches, I hate that.

I'll think of more and I can add to it later if you'd like.

Essentially, if everything points to Team A winning and there's lots of "value" betting Team A, I go with Team B.

 

[Tron]

I'll add that the downside to my selection criteria compare to say Matty's is that my process yields WAY less selections.

And knowing when to abandon your contrarian gem when the signals present themselves is also very key. I also like to take a day off if I go 0-2 or worse the previous day. Chase repellent.

Sports betting is like golf: it's not how good you hit the good ones, it's how bad you hit the bad ones.

 

[Vegas Dave]

I'll add that the downside to my selection criteria compare to say Matty's is that my process yields WAY less selections.

And knowing when to abandon your contrarian gem when the signals present themselves is also very key. I also like to take a day off if I go 0-2 or worse the previous day. Chase repellent.

Sports betting is like golf: it's not how good you hit the good ones, it's how bad you hit the bad ones.

I like it. I have noticed you do seem to tilt a bit (like get super frustrated with losses/losing streaks), so it makes sense to add in little breaks. Unlike Matty's system which is automatic based on numbers, yours relies on a clear head to assess the situation, so wise to know yourself enough to know that you might be tempted to reach/chase when tilted up!