Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

[Matty]

Stevie do you just randomly follow orange teams?

 

[stevek]

Lol, no. Good question though.

I chose all my favorite teams growing up and back then Cal Ripken Jr. and the Os were awesome.

 

[Matty]

I'm getting fucked sideways by all these solid starters who decided to all have a bad outing today. UGH.

 

[Matty]

This is going to shit.

 

[roguejuror]

MIL FF hurt the most

 

[Matty]

And Jays, and Royals about to really destroy everything.

Hi Greg.

 

[Tron]

This is going to shit.

But the bigger picture is:

We are in the midst of The Second Golden Era of Gamelive

@roguejuror
@Archie
@kato
@CASPERWAIT$
@mcbaseball10
@FairWarning
@Dingo
@Boner_18
@Blitty
@Vegas Dave

 

[roguejuror]

the money is life, money is love era

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 130-127 +2.51u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 41-29-12 +2.13u

Kelly bankroll after day 5 - $229.58
New Kelly bet amount - $6.89

Saturday May 11

FULL GAMES
ARI +145
CHC -105
WSH +135
CHW +142
COL +140
SDP +125
KCR -145
OAK +180

FIRST FIVE
TOR -175
NYY -120
DET -142
MIL -182
CIN -142
SDP +118
KCR -174
MIA +105

Sixteen plays now. Marlins are a play for the first five with Luzardo as the starter. @Tron

FULL GAMES
3-5 -0.88u
YTD 133-132 +1.63u

FIRST FIVE
2-6 -6.88u
YTD 43-35-12 -4.75u

Kelly bankroll after day 6 - $176.11
New Kelly bet amount - $5.28

Alright, so while short-term variance is one thing, it's becoming clear that the first-five model is spitting out too many plays. Bookies deal 40-cent lines on those so more of the matchups should end up within the vig, not fewer. So I'm making a slight tweak to the model so that pitching is not weighed quite as heavily - it should logically lead to a reduction in FF plays.

Today's plays coming up.

 

[mcbaseball10]

Loooong season Marty! Hang in there

 

[roguejuror]

a beating worst than Munguia's

 

[Matty]

Sunday May 12

FULL GAMES
ARI +110
TOR +120

FIRST FIVE
TOR +110
MIA +182
STL +125

 

[Matty]

Adding

FULL GAMES
NYM +108

FIRST FIVE
CIN +108
OAK +190
SDP -106

LOL @ reducing the number of FF plays. I swear I didn't do anything but slightly adjust the weight of pitching down. I didn't touch the full game model at all, nor did I change my criteria for what's a play. This is odd.

 

[Matty]

FULL GAMES
YTD 133-132 +1.63u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 43-35-12 -4.75u

Kelly bankroll after day 6 - $176.11
New Kelly bet amount - $5.28

Sunday May 12

FULL GAMES
ARI +110
TOR +120
NYM +108

FIRST FIVE
TOR +110
MIA +182
STL +125
CIN +108
OAK +190
SDP -106

Go hug your mothers.

 

[Matty]

Jays you cocksucking suckerfucking fuckerfucks

Why are you so bad

 

[CASPERWAIT$]

Jays you cocksucking suckerfucking fuckerfucks

Why are you so bad

They really do suck

 

[Matty]

I got such a good price. What's the point.

 

[roguejuror]

damn I'm late to the party and only the Metropolitan are left