Matty Rain's 2024 MLB Betting Thread

Lol, no. Good question though.

I chose all my favorite teams growing up and back then Cal Ripken Jr. and the Os were awesome.

:hattip:
 
I'm getting fucked sideways by all these solid starters who decided to all have a bad outing today. UGH.
 
This is going to shit. :handshake:
 
And Jays, and Royals about to really destroy everything.

Hi Greg.
 
FULL GAMES
YTD 130-127 +2.51u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 41-29-12 +2.13u


Kelly bankroll after day 5 - $229.58
New Kelly bet amount - $6.89

Saturday May 11

FULL GAMES

ARI +145 :redx:
CHC -105 :redx:
WSH +135 :redx:
CHW +142 :greencheck:
COL +140 :greencheck:
SDP +125 :redx:
KCR -145 :redx:
OAK +180 :greencheck:

FIRST FIVE
TOR -175 :redx:
NYY -120 :redx:
DET -142 :greencheck:
MIL -182 :redx:
CIN -142 :redx:
SDP +118 :redx:
KCR -174 :redx:
MIA +105:greencheck:

Sixteen plays now. Marlins are a play for the first five with Luzardo as the starter. :handshake: @Tron
FULL GAMES
3-5 -0.88u
YTD 133-132 +1.63u

FIRST FIVE
2-6 -6.88u
YTD 43-35-12 -4.75u

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Kelly bankroll after day 6 - $176.11
New Kelly bet amount - $5.28

Alright, so while short-term variance is one thing, it's becoming clear that the first-five model is spitting out too many plays. Bookies deal 40-cent lines on those so more of the matchups should end up within the vig, not fewer. So I'm making a slight tweak to the model so that pitching is not weighed quite as heavily - it should logically lead to a reduction in FF plays.

Today's plays coming up.
 
Sunday May 12

FULL GAMES

ARI +110
TOR +120

FIRST FIVE
TOR +110
MIA +182
STL +125
 
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Adding

FULL GAMES
NYM +108

FIRST FIVE
CIN +108
OAK +190
SDP -106

LOL @ reducing the number of FF plays. I swear I didn't do anything but slightly adjust the weight of pitching down. I didn't touch the full game model at all, nor did I change my criteria for what's a play. This is odd.

:letsplayball:
 
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FULL GAMES
YTD 133-132 +1.63u

FIRST FIVE
YTD 43-35-12 -4.75u


Kelly bankroll after day 6 - $176.11
New Kelly bet amount - $5.28

Sunday May 12

FULL GAMES

ARI +110
TOR +120
NYM +108

FIRST FIVE
TOR +110
MIA +182
STL +125
CIN +108
OAK +190
SDP -106

Go hug your mothers.

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Jays you cocksucking suckerfucking fuckerfucks

Why are you so bad
 
I got such a good price. What's the point.

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damn I'm late to the party and only the Metropolitan are left