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Huge hand today

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I never called myself a professional player, I said I was playing part time. I know what I did, but was looking for other peoples input, because I ran a monte carlo simulation on the hand when I came home and the results puzzled me that's what I am asking.
 
did a Heart hit on the turn or river? oh wait, nevermind, everyone folded...i see...yes...the 10 wasnt a horrible bet but the reraise was bad on a draw imo...

fwiw, if im A high suited at a table of checkers, i always make the table pay a bit to see the flop...nothing crazy, but nothing free with me
 
nah daft, he is drawing for theA-high flush as he should know any straight he makes gets beat....but the 100 re raise was bad, imo because the $55 raise is a made hand already and you have to know you are behind...

so im assuming that since you said huge hand, you made the flush for the big pot... it happens...glad you are running good :highfive:
 
I said huge hand because it is not often there is a potential pot of almost 800 at the 1/2 tables there. It does happen when 2 big stacks tangle but normally stuff is pretty routine there as most stacks sit around 200 at best and the big stacks don't often tangle. If they do a smaller 200ish stack usually isn't around.
 
Ugh I realize that ray but I didn't know if he was counting the straight cards as an out. :cono:

Obviously if a heart comes and the board does not pair he is golden.

Again, hate the re-raise (and the size of the re-raise)
 
MonkeyF0cker
Why would you need an MC sim?
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I ran it based on what I thought each player had and what they actually had..... I was curious as to what the actual percentages were. The results surprised me. I usually do it on several hands that have run through after to verify my play mathematically as actual odds play on all in situations and implied odds are gone.
 
Acid Joe
I ran it based on what I thought each player had and what they actually had..... I was curious as to what the actual percentages were. The results surprised me. I usually do it on several hands that have run through after to verify my play mathematically as actual odds play on all in situations and implied odds are gone.
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You really should be able to do that at the table. Count outs. Know the percentages.
 
Acid Joe
9 outs twice is 36% which is approximately 2-1. Therefore the pot was giving me better than 2-1 with 2 cards to come (mostly thanks to my re reraise).
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No. 9 outs on the flop is ~35%.

The pot might have been $530, but the big stack has you covered by $40 so that money comes out. You are getting less than 2:1. If you wanna play near breakeven poker with high variance, then by all means make the call.
 
Just because I want to go to bed. I put the smaller stack on the made straight (possibly the nuts but definitely a straight. I put the other big stack on a set (88 or 99). I folded because I the odds were not there. One the cards I put them on I figured I had 25% chance of winning the hand because turning the flush I would still have to dodge his redraw to the boat or if he hits his boat I am now drawing dead. The results of the sim are here.


8,029,513 games 6.671 secs 1,203,644 games/sec

Board: Th 9h 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.286% 25.59% 02.69% 2054957 216270.83 { Ah7h }
Hand 1: 35.810% 35.44% 00.37% 2845772 29602.33 { 9c9d }
Hand 2: 35.904% 33.21% 02.69% 2666640 216270.83 { Js7c }

They both actually had the nut straight with no heart...... the simulation is here.


9,528,595 games 7.750 secs 1,229,496 games/sec

Board: Th 9h 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.921% 37.88% 00.04% 3609779 3531.67 { Ah7h }
Hand 1: 33.526% 04.97% 28.55% 473920 2720682.17 { QcJc }
Hand 2: 28.553% 00.00% 28.55% 0 2720682.17 { QdJs }

Therefore if I was 37% to win with the pot laying me over 2 to 1 with 2 cards to come I should have called as the odds of making the flush with 2 cards to come are approximately 2-1. It would have been marginal at best if I knew what they both had but cash games are all about small margins as you can reach into your pocket again and rebuy.

FYI no heart came and I was happy.
 
I took that out....

preflop 16
flop my 10 utg 20 button 55, reraise 90 utg push 260 (my stack) button pushes 80 more = 515

Total pot 531 which would be raked down to 525. I have 260 left.

Actual odds of making the flush is 1.9 to 1 pot is offering just over 2. Again pretty much a break even situation but slightly EV with lots of variance.

I usually do # of outs x 4 when calculating when 2 cards to come and x 2 with 1, which while not accurate completely ballparks it at the table. I am pretty good at keeping track of pot sizing although I usually don't take the rake out unless it's a real small pot. Bigger pots the 6 max doesn't matter that much.
 
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